Posted on 04/15/2016 5:25:20 AM PDT by Iowa David
Donald Trump is poised to win New York in a landslide on Tuesday but he could leave as many as two-dozen critical delegates on the table by failing to win an outright majority in every corner of the state, according to new congressional district-level polling provided to POLITICO.
http://politicalmachination.com/poll-new-york-2016-presidential-primary-2/
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
For the Cruz camp, it’s no longer how many he gets, it’s how many trump doesn’t get. If trump gets 1237 before the convention he wins. If he doesn’t and it’s an open convention, Cruz wins. It’s that simple.
Trump will do better in NY than Cruz did in TX or OH. Prediction: Trump will receive more than 50% of the popular vote on Tuesday.
I have it all figured on a excel spreadsheet. What you see is the summary of what you describe based on the by district numbers from the Optimus Prime poll.
Trump is going to get far more than 50% in N.Y. and that's something that neither Teddy ( 44% in his adopted home state ) and KaSICKO did in Ohio.
Poor widdle Teddy won't get ANY delegates in N.Y.; NONE !
Not in N.Y. he would! Rubio couldn’t even win HIS home state and that canard about “there were more people running abck then”, is unalloyed hogwash.
“Was it always this way...?”
Yes. Although many states also have a primary that binds those delegates on the first (sometimes second ballot). And in most elections the Primary only states decide things early on, so the caucus system doesn’t usually play a role.
This year, with things being fairly close, those caucus delegates may play a role in the nomination.
Even Colorado has not had a binding primary in many years.
And the caucus system isn’t just for the insiders. Any registered Republican can go in to their neighborhood precinct and vote. And because hardly anyone is interested in them, they will probably also be able to go to their county caucus and vote there as well.
Heck, it was my first time and I will be going to the Washington State convention where I will be able to vote on who we send to the national convention. I’m guessing I won’t be going though!
That’s roughly my guess.
I think the only thing that needs to be factored in here is what happens when the undecideds go away. I think Trump is at the RCP average using that poll in that scenario, which should have it somewhere in the 53-55% range.
The undecideds were breaking slightly in favor of Trump, but they have the effect of moving the polled number of 49% to 51% when factored in when leaners were pushed with 9% left undecided.
Figure the last 9% breaks the same way, you’re likely in the 54-55% range and Trump ends up with somewhere between 85-90 delegates.
I still have it somewhere between 80-90 based on the MOE. Either way, it’s above the 538 projections.
I am definitely going against the polling data, here. Like I say, if I am wrong on Wednesday, I expect to hear it from all of my FRiends.
One thing about polling, however...
If I was less of a stubborn cuss, I might be inclined to tell an unfamiliar pollster over the phone that I was voting for Donald Trump even though I have no intention to do so. With all of the loose talk about threatening delegates and violence at the convention coming from the Trump campaign, I might just say that I support Trump to avoid trouble.
When a pollster calls your house, he has your name, phone number and address. If I suspected the pollster might actually be connected to the Trump campaign, with their well known tendencies of threatening violence, I would not want to annoy such a person who has my name, telephone number and address.
The whole reason the delegate system was put i place by the founding fathers was to protect the country from a populist president. We are a republic, not a democracy.
So when Cruz got 0% of the vote in Colorado but 100% of the delegates.......?????????
No one gets 100% of any group except commies, and globalists like Cruz.....
Question..... where is Cruz’s OTHER US citizen parent????
The guy is NOT a Pedigree US Citizen like the RULES require.
NBC???? NOT!
Nice attempt at justifying the flawed delegate system but you are wrong. The Founding Fathers set it up so that the citizens would elect the people who would represent them. What happened in Colorado was a travesty. A hand-picked elite do not get to decide for everybody else.
This is the sad story of the Trump campaign:
http://www.redstate.com/streiff/2016/04/15/surprise-donald-trump-campaign-humiliates-georgia/
“Cruz wins. It’s that simple.”
And the American people lose.
Even if elected in the general Cruz will be challenged on the ineligibility issue. Being born in Canada as the son of a Cuban (and Castro supporter) father wasn’t what the Founder’s had in mind when they inserted the NBC requirement. NBC is being 100% American much like being a pedigreed dog....100% breed heritage.
An elected win for Cruz results in a Hillary White House.
Methinks that Cruz’s Harvard degree/smarts are highly overrated......
Anybody that believes these polls saying how bad Trump is and how he’s hated and blah, blah, blah, need to understand that the one the media jumps on and says can’t win is the one that can win. Also anyone with a brain knows that a socialist would not carry one state, probably not even his own state. The percentages you see that says Trump is hated by 70% of women is another joke. Unless the GOPe steals the nomination from Trump he’ll win in a landslide the way Reagan did, after being called an idiot, and “trailing Carter” 25 points 6 months out from the election. The only way the GOP loses this year is to run Cruz or Kasich. And that’s exactly what they want because they want Hillary Clinton elected over Trump. To hell with the country, to hell with the US Supreme Court. Their jobs and way of life of screwing the people and making themselves rich is on the line and they are pulling out all stops to see to it that Trump and his millions of voters are disenfranchised. They don’t care. Even if Trump has 1,237 going into the convention they’ll steal try to steal it from him.
In every one of the 22 states Trump has won he’s carried the conservative and evangelical vote. In the entire Southern United States he skunked Cruz, who for some reason thought he would carry the South starting in SC. Cruz’s problem in the South was Southerners see right through a phony, especially when that phony is a transplanted Canadian carpetbagger with no Southern accent.
You didn’t answer my question.
Cruz is ineligible to be US President.
Unlike the Republicans with Obama, the Democrats will insure that Cruz never steps foot in the White House should all his finagling propel him to the General Election AND enough Democrats sit out the election because they don’t like Hillary. Lose with Cruz.
The above doom Cruz from the start......the pile-up of ifs are too many to overcome.
It appears his “smarts” are highly overrated.
Ps. The Democrats do not fear a Cruz candidacy whatsoever. Face it, they welcome it!
#neverCruz
“sit down” if the draft dodging, lying Trump wins I’m voting only my local elections. I won’t vote for ANOTHER RINO SUPPORTING ABORTION AND HIGHER TAXES AND MORE GOVERNMENT CONTROL. We don’t need another ignorant DICTATOR, we’ve just been through 8 years of one. I held my nose and voted Romney, NO MORE will I do it again. Want a dictator better it’s a crappy dem than a supposed GOPe.
I will vote my faith over a RINO.
Trump is only sharing votes in NY with two other candidates, and he STILL might not get 50%.
How many candidates were running when Cruz won TX?
See the difference?
Ted Cruz sure has momentum on his side, and Ted’s even getting a little momentum in NY, according to most recent poll. Plus, Ted seems to underpoll.
Did you hear CONSERVATIVE Billy Joel dedicated one of his songs in his performance to Ted Cruz in NY last night? I love it!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.