Posted on 04/08/2016 10:42:28 PM PDT by Innovative
Until Wisconsin, Donald Trump was considered likely to win a majority of pledged delegates. In truth, his plan to reach 1,237 was already very vulnerable; Ted Cruz had built enough support by March 15 that even adding a modest share of Marco Rubio’s voters was likely to start him on the road to deny Mr. Trump a majority.
But after Mr. Trump’s loss Tuesday, the conventional wisdom has gone too far in the other direction. His path to 1,237 is still clear. It is certainly narrow, but it may require him to do only two challenging things: win two tossup states, Indiana and California. There’s an argument he’s currently favored in both.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Hope he makes it, and we won't have to watch a Republican convention in disarray turning everyone off from ever voting Republican again.
Trump may “win” CA but again Cruz will likely pull more delegates, district by district. His campaign knows microtargeting and already has the infrastructure that Donald didn’t know was necessary until a couple of weeks ago. Indiana who knows but I read today Trump’s numbers there have not moved in months.
They don’t want to hear facts.
-62
you really should just check the facts
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hkgLa844MzTgeqcmrkeSrLnq7vJJZl2S7lMz8Qf5xq8/edit#gid=0
fact is, if Trump wins the states where he’s favored by a large margin (NY, CA, MD, PA, NJ), he will only need another 48 delegates from all the other states... half of which are proportional.
unless something radical happens, Trump will hit the 1237 and lock it in
“Not easy, but possible.”
Especially if the writer is working for the NY Slimes!
If you can’t see how losing the election but getting more delegates looks dishonest you need to be a democrat.
I’m not being either snarky or mean just stating a fact. You can think it makes Cruz look smart or savvy but to many people it just looks crooked.
Remember - the winner of PA only gets 17 bound delegates. And in CA, the winner of each congressional district wins 3 delegates. For example, Cruz is beating Trump handily in LA county, which has 15 congressional districts; Trump is beating Cruz in Orange and Riverside counties, which have only 5 CD’s. See the problem with your reasoning???
No, Trump needs 56% of the remaining delegates, while Cruz needs 81%. Cruz’s only hope is a contested convention. He will not be able to secure that 1,237 magical number.
Trump needs to play this rather sleazy game by the known and written rules. Besides winning bound delegates in primary elections and caucuses, he needs to court the unbound delegates. If he ends up 50 or so bound delegates short, he needs to have enough unbound delegates who favor him to put him over the top.
If Cruz is "stealing" unbound delegates, I have no more sympathy for Trump than in a baseball game when the opposing team is stealing bases. That is how the game is played, and Trump needs to pay attention to everything, not just to hitting a huge number of home runs.
If Trump has not learned how this game is played by now, and hired the right people to manage all aspects of his campaign and win in the first round of voting at the convention, he has no business going up against Hillary in the general election. He has to know that subsequent ballots will not be in his favor if he doesn't win on the first ballot. Trump has my vote, but that is not enough.
Definitely. The Democrats have more chance of being disarrayed I think so a clean Trump win going in would be a great opportunity to show the contrast. And if he switches gears in the next few weeks to a more serious, policy driven style there is no doubt we can pull it off.
It is obvious lying Ted and his followers are a bunch of crooks. Ted loses election in Louisiana, and then steals delegates and ends up with more delegates than the winner. Pray America is waking.
Trump spent his life in the real world, building real things and creating real jobs for real people. Canada born Ted is just a career politician, who lies, cheats, spreads false rumors, and gullible Americans think he is a conservative. Is it any wonder America is in a decline? People get the government they deserve.
“If you can’t see how losing the election but getting more delegates looks dishonest you need to be a democrat. I’m not being either snarky or mean just stating a fact. You can think it makes Cruz look smart or savvy but to many people it just looks crooked.”
http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/thepoliticalsystem/a/electcollege_2.htm
A look at the Electoral Votes From Each State and a little math will tell you that the Electoral College system makes it possible for a candidate to actually lose the nationwide popular vote, but be elected president by the Electoral College.
Considering its a winner-take-most, I seriously doubt that.
They don’t want to hear facts.
Right, Cruzers love facts. That's why they still pretend he's going to be the nominee.
You may want to do more research on the California primary. You can start by reading this article:
California GOP poll: Trump leads Cruz by 7 points
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/3418557/posts
Yes, I know that. It has actually happened but the vote totals would need to be close.
BUT that is a different thing than using the rules in a primary to overturn an election that was not close. What Ted Cruz’ campaign did in Louisiana was to overturn a bad loss. Trump beat Cruz by a substantial margin.
What Cruz is doing is the difference between legal and ethical.
“What Cruz is doing is the difference between legal and ethical.”
The rules under which this election is being run, which were spelled out before they began and have not been changed, say otherwise. Lay off the sour grapes and think about it. It can become a help to either side. Running on pure emotion is how we got here.
Besides winning bound delegates in primary elections and caucuses, he needs to court the unbound delegates.
The rules under which this election is being run, which were spelled out before they began and have not been changed, say otherwise.
just because it is spelled out and agreed to, does not make it morally right...
and that is specifically not the kind of activity that the man who is ostensibly “showing us the face of God” should be involved in...
I expected some of those ethical issue to arise from Donald to some extent... but did not expect it from Ted’s bible thumping camp... until last new years season
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