Posted on 04/08/2016 5:34:08 AM PDT by Kaslin
"Donald J. Trump withstood the onslaught of the establishment yet again." That's the first sentence in a Trump campaign statement tweeted out Tuesday night by the Washington Post's Robert Costa. It's also a strange way to respond to a solid defeat, reminiscent of the Monty Python knight who insists he is winning after both his arms are hacked off.
Ted Cruz -- "Lyin' Ted" to the Trump campaign -- won 48 percent of the votes in Wisconsin's Republican primary. Trump won 35 percent. John Kasich got only 14 percent. The delegate count was even more one-sided. Cruz won 36 delegates. Trump won six. Kasich won none.
In the three weeks since March 15, Trump has made little progress in his drive to win the 1,237-delegate majority necessary for the Republican nomination. The Washington Examiner delegate count shows Trump with 743, some 494 delegates shy of 1,237. He needs to win about two-thirds of remaining delegates to get a majority.
The race in Wisconsin shows why that seems increasingly unlikely. One reason is that Trump speaks conservatism as a second language he hasn't bothered to master.
Hence his offhand remark that women who have abortions should be punished -- something advocated by no one on any side of the issue. Hence his blistering attacks on Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, whose policies have been supported well nigh universally by Wisconsin Republicans.
In contrast, Ted Cruz showed an ability to adapt to terrain and vary his approach from his usual college-debater style. Appearing with his wife, mother and supporter Carly Fiorina, he spoke of the achievements and tragedies of women in his life. He has learned to leaven his crisp issue stands with an emollient tone reminiscent of Marco Rubio.
Cruz seems unlikely to overcome Trump's lead in New York, where the relatively few registered Republicans seem to lack the social connectedness that helped him pile up huge majorities in the Milwaukee suburbs. But he has demonstrated that his appeal is no longer limited to evangelicals. He may lose to Trump in the Northeast but block him from amassing 1,237 delegates in contests elsewhere.
John Kasich's weak Wisconsin showing may reduce his numbers elsewhere. Or it may indicate that Wisconsin voters wanting to stop Trump were tactically voting for Cruz -- and that anti-Trump voters in affluent Northeastern districts where Kasich outpolls Cruz may flock to Kasich.
Either way makes it harder for Trump to get to 1,237. And even if Kasich and Cruz split the anti-Trump vote in Pennsylvania, that would get him only 17 statewide delegates; the state's other 54 delegates elected by congressional district will be uncommitted.
The Trump campaign's Tuesday night tweet accused Cruz of being a "Trojan horse, being used by the party bosses attempting to steal the nomination from Mr. Trump." The assumption is that the candidate who wins a plurality of delegates is entitled to the nomination even if he falls short of a majority.
Nonsense. The majority requirement is not arbitrary, as Trump has suggested, but a rational means of preventing the nomination of a candidate opposed by a majority of the party. Trump, who has won 37 percent of primary and caucus votes and 31 percent of delegates so far, is such a candidate. His high negatives and poll deficits against Hillary Clinton give Republicans reason to fear disaster if he is nominated.
Democrats have a similar majority rule and for a century, from 1836 to 1932, required a two-thirds supermajority for the nomination, to allow any large faction -- Southern segregationists, big city machine bosses -- a veto over the nomination. The parties' current majority requirements are modest in comparison.
In recent years candidates with plurality wins like Trump's have gained added support because they were widely acceptable. Trump isn't widely acceptable, and he hasn't gained added support. His 35 percent in Wisconsin against two rivals is just slightly above his poll numbers there and is identical to the 35 percent he got in New Hampshire against a dozen opponents in February.
One final note on Wisconsin: Republican turnout was higher than Democratic -- 1.1 million versus 1.0 million. Democratic turnout was not depressed by lack of suspense: Bernie Sanders won with 57 percent, and there was a hotly contested partisan race for state Supreme Court.
Republican turnout also exceeded Democratic in six other general election target states this year. That's a vivid contrast with 2008 and a mildly positive harbinger for Republicans -- if they manage to nominate a candidate without Trump's huge negatives.
You mean the ones that are backing him for President now?
Those two ex-wives are endorsing Trump.
As for Cruz “doing what he said he’d do”, you really want to go there, regarding the Corker Bill, TPP, his dramatic rendition of ‘Green Eggs & Ham’ in a failed filibuster that did nothing to advance his position?
You’re in Texas, how did you feel when you discovered that Cruz lied (either deliberately or by omission) about his actually being a Canadian citizen when he was elected in 2012? Didn’t even renounce his citizenship from the Great White North until 2014?
Now regarding the “transfer of wealth”, you better bone up on that blasphemous “7 Mountains / Dominionist” clap trap which Cruz’ evangelistic daddy promotes, and which Cruz is apparently ok with, and perhaps your junior Senator can explain just why it is, that the mad Mormon ‘Prophet’ Glenn Beck has been saying that Cruz is the ‘fulfillment of Mormon Prophecy’?
Oh let’s go there, really, let’s go pal.
“You mean the ones that are backing him for President now?”
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Of course they are. Otherwise the gravy train would end.
Please be more reverent when addressing the son of the seven monntains man.
He’s the fulfillment of Mormon prophesy.
Glenn Beck said so, and Ted beamed!
(I’m Ted Cruz, and I approved of that messenger...)
Just to inject a bit of reality into your post - please recall it is the GOPe who have stated, on record, that they would rather have hillary than Trump. Wth does that tell you?
Power and control, the deadliest game in the universe.
To see Cruz all cozy with the ones that declared hillary would be alright to them, makes me ill. He’d of done himself a world of good if he declined their offers to bed him. As it stands, he needs and has the entire GOPe apparatus propping him up and you guys know it - for some reason you all want to pretend it’s not true, that Cruz is somehow outwitting these big guns who have played this game their entire lives - yea, I believe that - NOT
The only thing we can hope for is those delegates are bound to their candidates so we don’t get some funky rule that allows for shenanigans...
>>please recall it is the GOPe who have stated, on record, that they would rather have hillary than Trump. Wth does that tell you?<<
That tells me that people have inflated their understanding of “GOPe” beyond any reasonable bounds. The GOPe consists of thousands and thousands of people, but a few Republicans say something and suddenly they speak for all of those thousands. It’s just getting ridiculous.
It’s really going to be interesting to see how Ted Cruz comes down on Rule 40, i.e., whether to keep it or dump it, or just modify it somehow.
Right now, it’s not obvious if it hurts his chances or helps them. It obviously helps Trump because it makes Rubio’s and Kasich’s delegates available to pick off on the first ballot, so Cruz might want to see it jettisoned, but that would also open up a path to bypass Cruz if Trump doesn’t win on the first ballot.
If Cruz has lined up enough Rubio/Kasich delegates to stop Trump on the first ballot, however, then with Rule 40 in place Cruz himself would win on the first ballot, since they’d be the only two on it, as I see it. (I could be wrong about that, however.)
Really??
Who runs the GOPe? Are you suggesting that there are ‘thousands and thousands’ of nameless people who are telling McConnell and Ryan and Reince and Hatch and Graham and McCain what to say and what to do? Really?
As much as you guys want to distance Teddy from the cozy bed he’s found himself in, the reality is there and it sticks because it’s true.
Delude it all you want, people who give a damn about who exactly is driving this nation downhill, do take note and do understand who directs it from our side. Nice try Norse, but no sale.
Because we know the ultra conservatives in Wisconsin all live in Madison and Milwaukee. Sure (sarcasm off)
Nothing to do with Trump! Ted Cruz was born in Cana-duh with a Cuban born father. If you could go back to ask our Founding Fathers if a man born in Canada to a foreign father could ever be President, they would to a man say no!
It’s really going to be interesting to see how Ted Cruz comes down on Rule 40, i.e.,
whether to keep it or dump it, or just modify it somehow.
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Not sure if it will be changed or attempted to change. Currently both Trump and Cruz
have enough state wins to be qualified. Rubio has three wins and Kasich one thus neither
would be qualified unless Rule 40 was changed or eliminated. Rule 40 was raised in
2012 from 5 to 8 state wins to help Romney by eliminating Paul’s chances.
Balanced article on the results of the WI Primary.
FReep Mail me if you want on, or off, this Wisconsin interest ping list.
I think it will depend a lot on how close Trump is to having 1237 delegates after the last primaries. If he’s close, say within 100 or so, it might be in Cruz’s interest to get rid of Rule 40 because with it in place Rubio and Kasich can’t appear on the ballot. If that opens up the delegates they won to poaching on the first ballot, it wouldn’t take that many moving to Trump to put him over the top.
But if Rubio and Kasich are on the ballot, those delegates will be bound on the first vote, making them unavailable to Trump. Most people, including me, think a lot of Trump’s delegates will desert him on any subsequent ballots, so if he doesn’t get it on the first go around, he doesn’t get it at all.
Because of first ballot considerations, Cruz might just want to dump Rule 40 altogether and take the chance that the GOP doesn’t jump right past him on later ballots. One thing I’m reasonably certain of is that the Cruz team will have an excellent handle on the delegate situation when the rules are drawn up and will have a good feel for how many delegates Trump can corral from any unbound group.
Incidentally, it’s possible that if Trump is 150 or so away, that keeping Rule 40 might put Cruz over the top on the first ballot if he can pull enough support from Rubio and Kasich voters. All in all, a fascinating situation without a clear answer right now. At least that’s how I see it.
Actually, the divorce agreements take care of the financial end.
However, with Trump, the gravy train that does end is the one the DC Cartel members are riding on.
it might be in Cruz’s interest to get rid of Rule 40
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It will be interesting to see how ‘rule 40’ is constructed when the selected delegates meet
a week before the convention to prepare the ‘rules of the 2016’ convention with adoption
being one of the first items for the convention after convening.
snip
Who Decides the Rules for the 2016 Republican National Convention?
The convention delegates decide.
A week before the Convention, the 2016 Convention Rules Committee must convene to put
together a package of rules to recommend for consideration by all delegates.
Delegates from each state and territory elect two representatives from within their
own delegations to the Convention Rules Committee – 112 delegates in total.
The Convention Rules Committee, after debate and discussion, adopts by majority
vote a package of recommended rules that moves to the convention floor.
Once a majority of the convention delegates adopt the report, the rules become the
permanent rules governing that Convention.
That package, called a Rules Report, is adopted by the Convention Rules Committee
by majority vote.
https://gop.com/convention-facts/?convention_type=how
end snip
Everyone who gives Cruz a pass on his non-eligibility is applauding 0bolo the usurper.
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