It’s really going to be interesting to see how Ted Cruz comes down on Rule 40, i.e., whether to keep it or dump it, or just modify it somehow.
Right now, it’s not obvious if it hurts his chances or helps them. It obviously helps Trump because it makes Rubio’s and Kasich’s delegates available to pick off on the first ballot, so Cruz might want to see it jettisoned, but that would also open up a path to bypass Cruz if Trump doesn’t win on the first ballot.
If Cruz has lined up enough Rubio/Kasich delegates to stop Trump on the first ballot, however, then with Rule 40 in place Cruz himself would win on the first ballot, since they’d be the only two on it, as I see it. (I could be wrong about that, however.)
It’s really going to be interesting to see how Ted Cruz comes down on Rule 40, i.e.,
whether to keep it or dump it, or just modify it somehow.
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Not sure if it will be changed or attempted to change. Currently both Trump and Cruz
have enough state wins to be qualified. Rubio has three wins and Kasich one thus neither
would be qualified unless Rule 40 was changed or eliminated. Rule 40 was raised in
2012 from 5 to 8 state wins to help Romney by eliminating Paul’s chances.