It’s really going to be interesting to see how Ted Cruz comes down on Rule 40, i.e.,
whether to keep it or dump it, or just modify it somehow.
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Not sure if it will be changed or attempted to change. Currently both Trump and Cruz
have enough state wins to be qualified. Rubio has three wins and Kasich one thus neither
would be qualified unless Rule 40 was changed or eliminated. Rule 40 was raised in
2012 from 5 to 8 state wins to help Romney by eliminating Paul’s chances.
I think it will depend a lot on how close Trump is to having 1237 delegates after the last primaries. If he’s close, say within 100 or so, it might be in Cruz’s interest to get rid of Rule 40 because with it in place Rubio and Kasich can’t appear on the ballot. If that opens up the delegates they won to poaching on the first ballot, it wouldn’t take that many moving to Trump to put him over the top.
But if Rubio and Kasich are on the ballot, those delegates will be bound on the first vote, making them unavailable to Trump. Most people, including me, think a lot of Trump’s delegates will desert him on any subsequent ballots, so if he doesn’t get it on the first go around, he doesn’t get it at all.
Because of first ballot considerations, Cruz might just want to dump Rule 40 altogether and take the chance that the GOP doesn’t jump right past him on later ballots. One thing I’m reasonably certain of is that the Cruz team will have an excellent handle on the delegate situation when the rules are drawn up and will have a good feel for how many delegates Trump can corral from any unbound group.
Incidentally, it’s possible that if Trump is 150 or so away, that keeping Rule 40 might put Cruz over the top on the first ballot if he can pull enough support from Rubio and Kasich voters. All in all, a fascinating situation without a clear answer right now. At least that’s how I see it.