I think it will depend a lot on how close Trump is to having 1237 delegates after the last primaries. If he’s close, say within 100 or so, it might be in Cruz’s interest to get rid of Rule 40 because with it in place Rubio and Kasich can’t appear on the ballot. If that opens up the delegates they won to poaching on the first ballot, it wouldn’t take that many moving to Trump to put him over the top.
But if Rubio and Kasich are on the ballot, those delegates will be bound on the first vote, making them unavailable to Trump. Most people, including me, think a lot of Trump’s delegates will desert him on any subsequent ballots, so if he doesn’t get it on the first go around, he doesn’t get it at all.
Because of first ballot considerations, Cruz might just want to dump Rule 40 altogether and take the chance that the GOP doesn’t jump right past him on later ballots. One thing I’m reasonably certain of is that the Cruz team will have an excellent handle on the delegate situation when the rules are drawn up and will have a good feel for how many delegates Trump can corral from any unbound group.
Incidentally, it’s possible that if Trump is 150 or so away, that keeping Rule 40 might put Cruz over the top on the first ballot if he can pull enough support from Rubio and Kasich voters. All in all, a fascinating situation without a clear answer right now. At least that’s how I see it.
it might be in Cruz’s interest to get rid of Rule 40
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It will be interesting to see how ‘rule 40’ is constructed when the selected delegates meet
a week before the convention to prepare the ‘rules of the 2016’ convention with adoption
being one of the first items for the convention after convening.
snip
Who Decides the Rules for the 2016 Republican National Convention?
The convention delegates decide.
A week before the Convention, the 2016 Convention Rules Committee must convene to put
together a package of rules to recommend for consideration by all delegates.
Delegates from each state and territory elect two representatives from within their
own delegations to the Convention Rules Committee – 112 delegates in total.
The Convention Rules Committee, after debate and discussion, adopts by majority
vote a package of recommended rules that moves to the convention floor.
Once a majority of the convention delegates adopt the report, the rules become the
permanent rules governing that Convention.
That package, called a Rules Report, is adopted by the Convention Rules Committee
by majority vote.
https://gop.com/convention-facts/?convention_type=how
end snip