Posted on 04/08/2016 5:34:08 AM PDT by Kaslin
"Donald J. Trump withstood the onslaught of the establishment yet again." That's the first sentence in a Trump campaign statement tweeted out Tuesday night by the Washington Post's Robert Costa. It's also a strange way to respond to a solid defeat, reminiscent of the Monty Python knight who insists he is winning after both his arms are hacked off.
Ted Cruz -- "Lyin' Ted" to the Trump campaign -- won 48 percent of the votes in Wisconsin's Republican primary. Trump won 35 percent. John Kasich got only 14 percent. The delegate count was even more one-sided. Cruz won 36 delegates. Trump won six. Kasich won none.
In the three weeks since March 15, Trump has made little progress in his drive to win the 1,237-delegate majority necessary for the Republican nomination. The Washington Examiner delegate count shows Trump with 743, some 494 delegates shy of 1,237. He needs to win about two-thirds of remaining delegates to get a majority.
The race in Wisconsin shows why that seems increasingly unlikely. One reason is that Trump speaks conservatism as a second language he hasn't bothered to master.
Hence his offhand remark that women who have abortions should be punished -- something advocated by no one on any side of the issue. Hence his blistering attacks on Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, whose policies have been supported well nigh universally by Wisconsin Republicans.
In contrast, Ted Cruz showed an ability to adapt to terrain and vary his approach from his usual college-debater style. Appearing with his wife, mother and supporter Carly Fiorina, he spoke of the achievements and tragedies of women in his life. He has learned to leaven his crisp issue stands with an emollient tone reminiscent of Marco Rubio.
Cruz seems unlikely to overcome Trump's lead in New York, where the relatively few registered Republicans seem to lack the social connectedness that helped him pile up huge majorities in the Milwaukee suburbs. But he has demonstrated that his appeal is no longer limited to evangelicals. He may lose to Trump in the Northeast but block him from amassing 1,237 delegates in contests elsewhere.
John Kasich's weak Wisconsin showing may reduce his numbers elsewhere. Or it may indicate that Wisconsin voters wanting to stop Trump were tactically voting for Cruz -- and that anti-Trump voters in affluent Northeastern districts where Kasich outpolls Cruz may flock to Kasich.
Either way makes it harder for Trump to get to 1,237. And even if Kasich and Cruz split the anti-Trump vote in Pennsylvania, that would get him only 17 statewide delegates; the state's other 54 delegates elected by congressional district will be uncommitted.
The Trump campaign's Tuesday night tweet accused Cruz of being a "Trojan horse, being used by the party bosses attempting to steal the nomination from Mr. Trump." The assumption is that the candidate who wins a plurality of delegates is entitled to the nomination even if he falls short of a majority.
Nonsense. The majority requirement is not arbitrary, as Trump has suggested, but a rational means of preventing the nomination of a candidate opposed by a majority of the party. Trump, who has won 37 percent of primary and caucus votes and 31 percent of delegates so far, is such a candidate. His high negatives and poll deficits against Hillary Clinton give Republicans reason to fear disaster if he is nominated.
Democrats have a similar majority rule and for a century, from 1836 to 1932, required a two-thirds supermajority for the nomination, to allow any large faction -- Southern segregationists, big city machine bosses -- a veto over the nomination. The parties' current majority requirements are modest in comparison.
In recent years candidates with plurality wins like Trump's have gained added support because they were widely acceptable. Trump isn't widely acceptable, and he hasn't gained added support. His 35 percent in Wisconsin against two rivals is just slightly above his poll numbers there and is identical to the 35 percent he got in New Hampshire against a dozen opponents in February.
One final note on Wisconsin: Republican turnout was higher than Democratic -- 1.1 million versus 1.0 million. Democratic turnout was not depressed by lack of suspense: Bernie Sanders won with 57 percent, and there was a hotly contested partisan race for state Supreme Court.
Republican turnout also exceeded Democratic in six other general election target states this year. That's a vivid contrast with 2008 and a mildly positive harbinger for Republicans -- if they manage to nominate a candidate without Trump's huge negatives.
I have noticed since Wisconsin the Trumper Cruz haters are getting louder.
The buzz of the butthurtflies.
total bs
You’re opinion. *shrug*
“BS?” Oh, Bonafide Story!
I agree.
Mine too.
They are getting more pathetic as time goes by.
I love the call of the trumpettes when anything doesn’t match their world view. 2/3rds of Republicans don’t want Trump? “BS, BS, BS” But some bogus web site in Macedonia says Trump is the next coming? “From the mouth of God!” And they say Globull Warming is a religion.
Cruz needs to win about ninety percent of the remaining delegates to get a majority.
So in effect they are pushing for a contested/brokered convention in an effort to
get Edward the nomination. That’s his only way.
If Trump gets the nomination I will vote for him.
But Trump has his people so eat up with deranged Cruz hate many will never vote for Ted if HE gets the nomination.
So either way with Trump you get Hillary.
This something advocated by all conservatives. If something is against the law than those who do that thing should be prosecuted.
If the GOPe would just do what we've told them to do they wouldn't be facing Trump right now. But they've ignored the laws time and time again to the point where they can no longer be trusted.
36/42 Delegates is not enough for Cruz to stay on track.
Once he needs 43/42 delegates the votes will drop off.
And that happens in 11 days.
I have never voted for a third party candidate in the general election who has absolutely no chance of getting elected and never will. Voting for a third party candidate or sitting the election out guarantees a Hillary Rotten Clinton victory
They are very similar to Obama supporters.
My Magic 8 Ball is in the shop, but all the Trumper posters swearing that they would NEVER vote for Ted Cruz kind of gave me a hint.
Moron
Sorry, Mr. Barone.
Simply not true.
Trump won twice as many counties as Cruz did.
Oh, a Bridge joke. I get it.
Only because my grandmother was an avid player (and perhaps the last one I’ll ever know)
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