Posted on 04/07/2016 4:33:06 PM PDT by Jim Robinson
Edited on 04/07/2016 4:48:52 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
According to Politico's delegate counter (http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker) there are 882 delegates left.
If this s true, here is the delegate math to elimination:
Cruz currently has 517 delegates so he needs to win 720 more (81.6%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Cruz can only afford to lose a maximum of 162 delegates or he is mathematically eliminated.
Trump currently has 743 delegates so he needs to win 494 more (56%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Trump can afford to lose up to 388 delegates without being mathematically eliminated.
Fact Cruz has lost delegates at a much higher rate than Trump throughout this primary.
It appears to me that Cruz is more than twice as likely as Trump to be mathematically eliminated.
as a trump supporter, I am ok with Cruz staying in until he is mathematically eliminated, however I think they should both tone it down and stop with the lies and personal attacks right now... The outcome of the primary is obvious and the focus should be on Hillary..
I don’t think I have seen any mathematical calculation projecting elimination take into consideration the full contingent of votes that will be cast on the first ballot. That ballot will not be confined to just the delegates bound to Mr. Trump and Senator Cruz. Those delegates once bound to candidates who have suspended or to candidates who release them will be unbound entering the convention. The unbound delegates will vote for one of the candidates in nomination and their vote will count just as much (1) as any bound delegate.
In summary, none of the models are or can be accurate in predicting mathematical elimination because we will not know for sure who the unbound delegates will vote for on the first ballot. The only way we can know prior to the actual first ballot is if one candidate secures 1237 bound delegates before the convention. Bound delegates are the only ones who must vote for a specified candidate and can’t change their mind before the vote is taken.
It is my view that, if as expected, only Mr. Trump and Senator Cruz have their name placed in nomination, there will be a winner on the first ballot. Given that the 1237 delegates needed to win is one half + one of the total delegates to the convention, a vote by all of the delegates with only two candidates to vote for must yield either a majority for one or an exact tie.
Trump is battled tested. He will just laugh and say “Get’em outa here!” And this will go foreword while hundreds of Bikers are near by to make sure our man is nominate, “through hell or high water”. A story book ending to a dream come true./s
Go Trump!
The ARG was wrong about so many polls. I’m a sconnie born and raised. I said for days, Cruz would win by 5+. There was never any time where he was winning Wisconsin. And yes, going against Walker hurt him. Walker, after his two hard fought wins, was NOT the person you attack in Wisconsin.
If Trump does not reach 1237, neither is eliminated.
With all due respect, which in your case is a great deal, Cruz is just looking to play this thing by the pre-established rules. If nobody gets 1237, there is a second ballot, and that ballot, under the existing rules, will be a choice between Cruz and Trump. If it gets to this point, Cruz will likely win, because he will be the acceptable choice of more delegates than Trump.
On the other hand, if Trump gets to 1237, it is all over. I think we can all agree on that, and we will all work hard to elect Trump in the Fall.
This is the way the rules work. With the exception of Rule 40, which limits the field, this is the way the rules have always worked. If a candidate does not win it on the first ballot, there is an second ballot on which delegates are not bound.
Even if Cruz can not reach 1237, there is still a good chance that he could prevail at the convention through the established and long-standing rules. There is nothing wrong with that, and Cruz would not be doing his job if he ignored the possibility.
Trump has never held office. Not even mayor.
By the rules...
There has been no delegate vote.
I will pick Carly as I would have loved to see her debate Hillary.
If there is no majority, at the convention, then some of the delegates will be released. Each of the states have differing rules about releasing the delegates if there is no majority, some after first, some after later balloting. If no one is liked well enough to get a majority per the convention delegates, eventually all with be released to whoever they like.
The rule 40 that establishes the nominee must a winner in at least 8 states (I believe that is just front runner, not majority) is not set for this convention. Each convention has it’s own rules committee and decide whatever rules suits the current candidates, not the past ones. The delegates have not convened the rules committee. The rules committee will present the potential rules to the general delegation for approval and when they pass the rules, they can do the rest of the convention, not before. Cruz and Trump may favor rule 40, but the delegates may not choose to. It still has to be voted on.
Back to Carly. If there is no front runner and the rules committee proposes and the body passes it, a rule that for example a person with any delegates is eligible she could be a final choice. But it is very unlikely, but the mathematical certainty only happens after the rules are set at the convention and passed by the body. Not one minute before.
More likely however, is neither of the two front runners get a real majority on first ballot, I believe there are 300+ delegates dedicated to neither Cruz nor Trump. The more non Trump delegates the more likely it is to have a contested next ballot.
The rules committee will probably put up a rule that controls who will be allowed to be in the running on the second ballot as both Trump and Cruz would really like to be the only two in the running and together they have more than the rest on the realm of 2000 Trump and Cruz to about 400 other delegates. Both will control the rules the delegates will agree to. Trump decided for whatever reason to not think about hiring the best and the brightest for this part of the nomination and now is trying to play catch up. A HORRID MISTAKE AND THERE IS NO REASON FOR NOT PLANNING THIS CONTINGENCY!!! Arrogance is not a reason as EVERY presidential candidate is arrogant. Cruz was active in preparation for this phase as any competent campaign staff should be.
Every ballot is now the mathematical certainty. Not before, and each eligible candidate can never be sure until a vote has been certified with a majority winner.
Of course, assuming that Trump knew all about the above and ignored it, the next question is why. I would say trust a person’s history over their words. Look at his past and his dedication to the principles he talks about now. Look at who he gave to politically and for what purpose. And most of all, look at what his actions are doing. Me, I believe that he has not proven the ability to do simple chess, or he is playing people for fools. He sells people on visiting casinos. Unrealized dreams with vacant promises of gold and the easy way. That is not the path his casinos have left in the past, people lose money to casinos. His real estate deals, done with the buying of politicians like Hillary et. al. That’s not an even playing field. The demonisation of everyone that dares to criticise even to the point of threatening a lawsuit of an opponent playing his televised words from the past, that don’t match his current words...that is a huge issue. If he really did not want to be president and throw the election to Hillary this is a great way to do it. A little bad acting, a lot of hope in his abilities to do the right thing...like in his casinos...
Ted Cruz should have heeded the warning about wrestling with pigs in the mud. But ask yourself this question, how many women has Trump grossly insulted directly? If he were talking about your daughter: Would you accept someone blaming her actions on her period? Telling a pretty apprentice she would look good on her knees? Complaining about Carly’s face? Etc. One is a slip maybe. Two is a question mark. Three is concern and four means he cannot help his nature. He’s past four.
Ronald Reagan would not go into the oval office without a jacket on, out of respect for the office. Where do I go from here?
Sorry Jim for the long post, but it is too important.
DK
looked like cruz was going to win by 20 and ended up 13.
yes ,...
I’m holding out for Sessions.
Thank you Jim.
That’s fine.
That's my sense as well. I don't recall a time that the republican party worked against its front-runner. If Trump happens to win the nomination, the party will work against him, behind the scenes, and the press and pundits will continue the full-on barrage against him. The party cannot afford to win the presidency.
Had Jeb been the nominee, as planned, the charade would have been much less messy.
This issue of being ‘mathematically eliminated’ in the context of the 2016 GOP nomination has been discussed ad nauseam in dozens of FR threads, polls, delegate tracking sites, news programs, etc..
Everyone should knows what it means by now, and that it refers to delegates assigned BEFORE the convention. It has absolutely no meaning otherwise, as even you have pointed out.
Sorry if you think it’s not clear what Jim was talking about.
I got a feeling both sides on here are going to be very disappointed.
Even if Cruz wins the presidency we’re all going to be disappointed once it’s apparent that he’s controlled by the uniparty.
But, I doubt he will beat Hillary so we can all be disappointed and blame each other for her winning. That will make the gope very happy.
Thank God for that. Trump will be running our country the way it should have been done years ago. Putting people in charge that know how to make decisions for the good of our country instead of Caroline Kennedy “The JOKE” talking with Japan about business and our future. A Vietnam traitor making deals with Iran that are a disgrace. Just to name a few. TRUMP will put intelligent people in places all over the world making deals for the BETTER of OUR COUNTRY!
Yea.. Do you think Trump will be able to overcome the GOP establishment working against him and still beat Hillary? Assuming Hillary has not been indicted.
Trump aint perfect. Cruz is to trump as hamilton is to adams.
That's why Kasich stays in until Trump gets 1237, and probably beyond. There will be credential challenges and dirty tricks to prevent a winner from emerging on the first ballot. The party is going to do everything posible to deny Trump the nomination.
Fooman do you know?.. which I have just learned today.. that even if rule 40-b stays in place that does not stop Kasich or Paul Ryan from getting the nomination further down the line?
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