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Straightforward mathematical path to elimination for Cruz v Trump

Posted on 04/07/2016 4:33:06 PM PDT by Jim Robinson

Edited on 04/07/2016 4:48:52 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]

According to Politico's delegate counter (http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker) there are 882 delegates left.

If this s true, here is the delegate math to elimination:

Cruz currently has 517 delegates so he needs to win 720 more (81.6%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Cruz can only afford to lose a maximum of 162 delegates or he is mathematically eliminated.

Trump currently has 743 delegates so he needs to win 494 more (56%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Trump can afford to lose up to 388 delegates without being mathematically eliminated.

Fact Cruz has lost delegates at a much higher rate than Trump throughout this primary.

It appears to me that Cruz is more than twice as likely as Trump to be mathematically eliminated.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: New York; US: Ohio; US: Texas; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2016election; cruz; delegatemath; delegates; election2016; elections; johnkasich; newyork; ohio; tedcruz; texas; trump
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To: enumerated

And once everyone is eliminated we will have no nominee? If only there were some kind of process...


261 posted on 04/07/2016 6:36:47 PM PDT by SoothingDave
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To: Ancesthntr

Dont want Rubio as VP. Sad to see rubio destroyed by schumer.

Rubio needs to be rehabbed somewhere where he can be watched, like dept of the interior...


262 posted on 04/07/2016 6:37:39 PM PDT by fooman (Get real with Kin Jung mentally Ill about proliferation)
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To: mtrott

this is like people wishing that you’ve made a home run when you get to 3rd base.


263 posted on 04/07/2016 6:37:45 PM PDT by spacejunkie2001
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To: HiTech RedNeck; SoothingDave
You seem to be deep into the pretense.

LOL, politely said.

He's definitely deep in... something...

264 posted on 04/07/2016 6:37:54 PM PDT by Talisker (One who commands, must obey.)
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To: Jim Robinson

Exactly


265 posted on 04/07/2016 6:40:13 PM PDT by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: b4me
Cruz is contacting delegates now and in essence buying them for further rounds of voting. That’s different then if they showed up, no one gets enough in first round so discussions were had and delegates changed mind AFTER the first vote. ethically and morally - I don’t agree with this lining delegates up ahead for 2nd etc rounds - it spreads an ugly presence over the whole convention and first vote. like fixing a race as opposed to showing up and seeing what happens on race day - which is months from now and so much can happen between now and then.

Who do you think delegates are? Where do they come from? How are they chosen?

What you are suggesting is that delegates are somehow outside of the political process and that it is somehow unethical for candidates to have personal relationships with them.

I just don't understand your thought process.

The idea is that people from all over the differrent states, who work with and for the party in all kinds of ways over years may eventually become delegates to distric conventions. Then maybe state conventions. Then maybe they will be selected to go to the national convention.

The idea that a presidential candidate actually knowing who delegates are is not unethical. A smart one, like Cruz and every other candidate who isn't a novice tries to get people he likes and who like him selected to be delegates.

266 posted on 04/07/2016 6:40:44 PM PDT by SoothingDave
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To: DoughtyOne

Cruz aint dead. He is against the GOPe as is Trump.

Trump alone will be destroyed by the GOPe. They will appeal to his vanity to do him in.

No single human is our savior .


267 posted on 04/07/2016 6:40:54 PM PDT by fooman (Get real with Kin Jung mentally Ill about proliferation)
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To: DoughtyOne

Precisely. Cruz is acting like a petulant child


268 posted on 04/07/2016 6:41:53 PM PDT by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: DoughtyOne

Julius Ceasar was setup as the sole savior to the roman republic.

Brutus Cassius and Augustus had other ideas.

Trump should team play with Cruz.


269 posted on 04/07/2016 6:42:48 PM PDT by fooman (Get real with Kin Jung mentally Ill about proliferation)
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To: mtrott

“How is Trump going to convince “little Marco” to go with him?”

Trump/Rubio gives the GOP the best chance to win Florida. Cruz/Anybody does not win Florida. Don’t let anybody tell you Cruz can take FL, his brand just does not sell here.

If you don’t win Florida, you don’t win.


270 posted on 04/07/2016 6:43:09 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
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To: DoughtyOne

No apology necessary. It’s rough and tumble.

I think any objectively fair rules committee would have representation from all candidates who won delegates. Proportionally would make sense. And probably some slots just for party higher ups.

I would be surprised if that was not the process.


271 posted on 04/07/2016 6:43:12 PM PDT by SoothingDave
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To: fooman

It is very irritating to have someone who is supporting the consummate poor loser, lecture me on what my candidate can’t do, when their candidate with 250 less delegates can’t grasp what he can’t do.

Get your own house in order.

Ted is risking the best chance we have had to rid ourselves of the GOPe king makers.

Wake up!


272 posted on 04/07/2016 6:44:09 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Facing Trump nomination inevitability, folks are now openly trying to help Hillary destroy him.)
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To: SoothingDave

Proportional?

Try trump and cruz.


273 posted on 04/07/2016 6:44:56 PM PDT by fooman (Get real with Kin Jung mentally Ill about proliferation)
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To: mtrott

In this thread Jim is talking about being mathematically eliminated from reaching 1237 BEFORE going into the convention. That happens as soon as the number a candidate needs to reach 1237 exceeds the remaining delegates available. It already happened to Kasich quite a while ago and it will happen to Cruz twelve days from now.

It may happen to Trump too, but not until June.


274 posted on 04/07/2016 6:45:02 PM PDT by enumerated
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To: fooman

I don’t want anyone with as bad a character as Cruz has exhibited, to be anyone where power.

Not no. Hell NO!


275 posted on 04/07/2016 6:45:46 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Facing Trump nomination inevitability, folks are now openly trying to help Hillary destroy him.)
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To: Mensius

How many years are you willing to live under the rule of the left while you struggle to take control of the levers of power in the GOP?

And what is to prevent the new people put into place from developing the same habits?


276 posted on 04/07/2016 6:46:01 PM PDT by SoothingDave
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To: fooman
No single human is our savior .

How right you are!

But there is certainly a man for out time.

Trump is emerging as the Churchill of our times. The Chamberlains of the entire west make excuses and demonize the self evident.

277 posted on 04/07/2016 6:46:19 PM PDT by Mensius
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To: SoothingDave

Thank you. As I am not even familiar with the 112 Committee, I’ll leave the call to you.

Take are. I appreciate your patience.

When I get worked up, I’m not real subtle.


278 posted on 04/07/2016 6:46:48 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Facing Trump nomination inevitability, folks are now openly trying to help Hillary destroy him.)
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To: enumerated

No, not exactly, because Jim has also stated that Cruz should drop out and concede the race since he is “mathematically eliminated.”


279 posted on 04/07/2016 6:47:27 PM PDT by SoothingDave
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To: DoughtyOne

Have a good night. I need to pack it in, too.


280 posted on 04/07/2016 6:47:50 PM PDT by SoothingDave
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