Posted on 04/07/2016 4:33:06 PM PDT by Jim Robinson
Edited on 04/07/2016 4:48:52 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
According to Politico's delegate counter (http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker) there are 882 delegates left.
If this s true, here is the delegate math to elimination:
Cruz currently has 517 delegates so he needs to win 720 more (81.6%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Cruz can only afford to lose a maximum of 162 delegates or he is mathematically eliminated.
Trump currently has 743 delegates so he needs to win 494 more (56%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Trump can afford to lose up to 388 delegates without being mathematically eliminated.
Fact Cruz has lost delegates at a much higher rate than Trump throughout this primary.
It appears to me that Cruz is more than twice as likely as Trump to be mathematically eliminated.
“It’s so gratifying to see a Cruz supporter show his true colors.”
I thought the same thing ... he cares about the Constitution, but us Trump voters can go to hell.
agreed
Ok, I'll try, again, maybe jeb!, Neal, Rubio and Kasich are fully afraid for their party's future and they are #nevertrump
The GOP is on the CRUZ Train to stop Trump, who they despise even more. Cruz is probably in some Brothel somewhere, nowhere near said Train.
If he doesn’t get 8 states then how can he choose any rule committee members?
“Who gives a good shit about Trump’s voters? I know I don’t.”
My wife and I will remember that if your man gets the nomination. We’ll be two of the voters in Florida that will send him home to Texas.
Rule 40b (Must win eight states to be VP or president)
means that everyone but trump and cruz are eliminated, unless trump or cruz gets 1237 delegates that are not disqualified.
This rule could be changed, but trump and cruz control the rules committee, if they would..
“Please get this much right at least. I don’t give a rats ass about the first ballot. It’s the SECOND ballot where Ted Cruz wins.”
Even if that is so, it doesn’t change the fact of being eliminated at the first ballot. That’s the topic of this thread. Mathematical elimination for the first ballot.
I do not support Ted Cruz’s grubby little fingers anywhere near the convention apparatus.
He is not on our side. What part of that do you not get?
This man is forcing a floor fight at the convention.
The GOPe will run the rules. Ted won’t.
The GOPe meets the week before the convention to review the rules and morph them some more.
Teddy wants to go into that buzz saw on purpose.
The guy is seriously challenged!
Not so fast. Trains have bigger bathrooms than campaign buses.
LOL
Cruz is the ticket man.
He thinks he’s the engineer.
A primary is where votes don't matter until your bettors decide they do. Like they said voters don't select the candidate they do. No need for anyone to not like this.
agree . Cruz is the smartest guy in class and needs eight years as vp to be more likable.
By my count it’s even worse than THAT for Cruz
Mine is based on fivethirtyeight tracker which I think is a little better, in part because real clear politics is giving Cruz 10 ND delegates which I believe are unbound, and therefore unavailable. Using 538’s Cruz total of 505 (same as your Wikipedia total, I have Cruz needing 732.
Also, the available delegates remaining for RCP includes 60 unbound delegates. These are not available, so I’m saying there are only 763 left, and Cruz needs 96%.
Trump (or Kasich) need only win 32 more delegates to eliminate Cruz.
I welcome that, I really do. Remember that we were complaining about border security since Reagan signed amnesty in 1986. After 9/11, surely this would be a priority... That's just ONE example. Fair trade, just one more. We are told that Chinese goods make our paychecks go further. Fine. But the middle class is disappearing and soon we will not even be able to afford cheap imports.
They are not working for us. The politician has but one job and that is to feather his own nest. We the People don't figure into the equation.
Maybe a more palatable person would have succeeded. It’s hard to think of a person less suited then him.
I like the fact that he talks straight, is not politically correct. The fact is he is ahead of the game when talking NATO, trade, military, the economy in general. Just look at the evolution of Cruz's positions, he's almost parroting Trump verbatim.
Why would the GOPe want this to happen? They must knoww this will end BADLY.
Sure ted is . As is Walker and Carson and Carly.
https://twitter.com/drewwyatt/status/718148857624977408
@Reince & Convention Rules Member Squirm When Asked If Rule CMTE Hearing Will Be Televised
Okay, I understand your thoughts. Thank you.
I look at these numbers with a grain of salt. IMO they are a good way to judge what’s going on, but I don’t believe either are the exact correct numbers.
That’s why I have provided two sources. I could probably find more if I wanted, but these are enough.
I do believe Cruz is dead in the water on the 19th. There is enough leeway, that it’s pretty certain.
Are you leaning that direction as well?
Jim, Cruz will only be eliminated if/when Trump gets 1237 delegates. You have to have a majority; a plurality is not enough, and in that case it will be settled at the convention with multiple ballots. There is so much misinformation out there that it is frustrating.
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