Posted on 04/07/2016 6:10:31 AM PDT by Rockitz
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’s overwhelming victory in Wisconsin on Tuesday makes it all but impossible for GOP frontrunner Donald Trump to win the 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the nomination ahead of the RNC convention in Cleveland.
Trump currently leads the GOP field with 743 delegates. He would need to win 58.9 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to obtain the simple majority necessary.
A number of the states remaining award delegates proportionally. The bulk of delegates in one critical upcoming state, Pennsylvania, aren’t officially bound to any candidate. The fight for California’s massive 172 delegates will be fought largely in each of the state’s 54 Congressional Districts.
As a result, Breitbart News estimates that Donald Trump will end the primary portion of the nomination fight with 1164 delegates, 74 short of the 1,237 delegates necessary to win the nomination on the first ballot. This estimate assumes Trump’s performance in upcoming contests is consistent with the results prior to Wisconsin.
In other words, it is a static estimate, assuming no great change in the trajectory, tone, or focus of the campaigns. It isn’t based on any future missteps, like those experienced by the Trump campaign ahead of the Wisconsin primary. Our assumption is, in many respects, the most optimistic for the Trump campaign. Because of this, it underscores the steep challenge Donald Trump faces heading into the 4th Quarter of the primary season.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Exactly. Trump is a master dealmaker. What’s the point of Cruz or anybody else getting the nom if it’s impossible for them to win? The establishment can force a nominee on us but they can’t force us to vote for him unless they plan massive voter fraud. Millions of Trump supporters will not vote for Cruz or anybody but Trump, PERIOD. We will never allow the establishment to get away with it. The RNC needs to let Trump rightfully win and work with him. Then we beat Hillary soundly. It’s simple. Newt says the establishment elite is petrified Trump will expose them, even if it means they lose. I think this is more than just about controlling Trump. What is the RNC really hiding?
They better not pick anyone other than the front runner. IF they do it’s game over.
See post# 7.
I think Kasich is the better choice here as he can deliver Ohio. Trump already is in strong position for Florida.
Also Gang of 8 Rubio is probably a net loser (whatever he gets from Hispanics he’ll lose from whites).
Kasich will also help in Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa three states that the Democrats can’t afford to lose. Even if the Dems still win those, forcing them to spend $$$ in states like these spreads their resources even thinner.
“Get what? If the nom is stolen from Trump he pushes the GOP destruct button on his phone. Ted Cruz will never be POTUS.”
RNC already said Trump won’t get the nomination regardless of whether he hits 1237. Why continue?
Small things matter.
Way back before the Iowa caucuses, Trump lied about his helicopter landing at the fairgrounds during the Iowa State Fair. He then had to have his flunkies scramble around and try to keep him from looking like an idiot by finding private property near the fairgrounds to land a helicopter.
The episode caused a lot of grief to Fair Board members. The Iowa governor is the head of the Fair Board and many of the Board’s members are active in politics. Trump made more enemies than he knows, and it showed in his Iowa caucus finish.
Can’t happen under current rules that Kasich or Rubio can help put anybody over the top.
Rule 40b says you have to win majority of delegates in 8 states to be put into nomination. Candidates with bound delegates that don’t meet 40b - their delegates can’t vote in first round because they’re bound to a candidate not eligible.
They can vote once they become unbound in 2nd round but by then, the math everywhere becomes wonky.
Trump can’t get more than a couple of dozen unbound votes on first round. They’re all deeply party people. I think I heard that of the projected 150 unbound delegates one lady is actively a Trump supporter and she claims she know of 4 others: 5 unbound votes.
My guess is that Trump needs 1250 votes to win on first round. Even if he minimally clears 1237, a few dozen faithless delegates will abstain. It’s unclear whether the rules allow this but fortunately for the establishment, they’ll get to interpret whether it’s allowed or not.
Trump isn’t going to be the nominee. The establishment won’t allow it and at this point, they don’t give a damn what you’ll do about it.
Rubio would be a better choice.
Parrot.
Thank you.
Maybe if Cruz would stop lying yhen a debate might be meaningful.
“One on one, Trump will have a chance to make Cruz look like an idiot, everyone will see it, and Trump will waltz to victory.”
Or, it could go the other way. I am assuming there would be constitutional questions asked?
I don’t care what “ground game” St. Ted has. You guys really, really have to face reality. There are only two choices in this election, neither ending in “z.”
It’s either Trump or a candidate of the GOPe’s choosing, probably Ryan, maybe Kasich, but not . . . NOT . . . Cruz.
His “ground game” isn’t going to miraculously corral 700 delegates, which is what he needs, especially considering that IF anything goes to round 2, Rubio and Yeb are right back in the mix because they haven’t released their delegates yet.
Some of you Cruzers really are dense and fail to see the stark choice facing our nation. Cruz from about January on has been one of those little steel traffic stops that can be lowered when you push a button. The GOPe will push the button if and when they stop Trump.
The nominee will have to be either Cruz or Trump- whoever gets to 1237 on the convention floor. If the GOP tries to put in another candidate- I agree that is game over for the GOP.
Rubio has 171 delegates. Rubio got finagled out of the race after he took all the blame for that disgusting tag-team performance with Cruz at that debate (how did Cruz get off without any blame?). Rubio’s big problem is he’s way too easy about the invasion of the US, but anyone the puppetmasters put in his place would be worse and it would be for Pres, not VP. Is this line of reasoning totally farfetched?
Selecting Cruz who will have significantly less votes cast for him, will be no less suicidal.
If Trump has 1200 Delegates going into the convention he only has to buy 27 and hes a multi-billionaire with holdings all over the world. Not a problem at all to get 27 people who do not hate him to go his way for say a JOB or money or free vacations or house payments etc. it would be Cheaper then most ad buys.
Grock on that fact.
I think the backroom deal was to ensure Hillary wins! These GOPe has no respect for those who cast votes as long as people keep giving money to the RNC and keep re-electing the same old people so their pockets can be lined and they can live high on the hog.
Actually, convention votes for non-qualifying candidates will be dutifully recorded in the roll call of states. This is a bow to state rules on delegate allocation. However, non-qualifying candidates will not be able to consume convention time with nomination speeches and such, which is what the rule is really about.
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