Posted on 04/05/2016 6:59:31 PM PDT by writer33
On Saturday, over at The Gateway Pundit, Joe Hoft put together a delegate math piece purporting to show that Cruz will be out of the running for 1237 delegates by the end of April. Hoft got that right, but his math used to get there is significantly off. What Hoft also fails to mention is that Trump will be effectively unable to reach 1237 delegates at the end of May.
Using Hoft’s report, the Trump campaign began to echo the elimination narrative. It also realized Trump’s own path to 1237 has significantly narrowed. When Trump fails to get to 1237, Cruz has already proven he has a superior second ballot strategy.
Lots of folks don’t want to hear that.
Is this writer even aware that primaries continue into June, including California with 172 delegates? Please tell me the rest of the posters on this thread know this “minor” detail.
Say HELLO to Vice President Rubio.
Better enjoy your orgasms now. The NE states are up and Rafael doesn’t stand a chance
As I understand it, it will go into a contested convention, not a brokered one.
At that point delegates will be released to vote for someone other than who they were bound to.
I think Ted Cruz will win in that scenario.
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers.
You are not alone.
I’m sorry to tell them, but the reality is that Cruz has absolutely nothing to gain by getting out of the race. He would, in essence, forfeit a valid shot at POTUS. Time and numbers are just simply not on Trump’s side.
In fact, New York will probably be Trump’s last significant victory. After that, he will continue to bleed delegates to Cruz. That’s just the way it is.
And there are no longer four or five candidates to split the vote up. A plurality doesn’t work anymore.
It is soooo not fair that Ted Cruz is organized and knows how to play the game.
McCain wins on the fifth ballot. You heard it here first
I was wondering about that, too.
The author thinks the primaries are over by the end of May.
There are a handful of states on June 7th, including delegate rich California and New Jersey.
Love your TV show.
Why do you say get ready for VP Rubio?
Here’s the excerpt on June:
“There are 303 delegates up for grab on June 7, 2016. They are in California (172), Montana (27), New Jersey (51), New Mexico 24, and South Dakota (29).
The remaining 303 delegates are awarded on June 7th. Trump needs 273 of them. The states of Montana and South Dakota are winner-take-all for a total of 56 delegates. Cruz has won every demographically similar state to those two by large amounts this election season. He should win both of those states. If he does, that leaves 246 delegates on June 7th. Even if Trump won every single remaining delegate he could not get to 1237. Due to no chance of winning Montana and South Dakota, Trump is effectively eliminated at the end May.”
LOL.
I’m hoping McCain loses his senate seat to that gal who’s running against him.
Haven’t heard much about that race.
Interesting.
I have read that Cruz is in a virtual tie with Trump in California. That would be a huge win for him.
Hope the trend continues.
It will unless someone can manage to put a gag on Trump.
Anyone that doesn’t think that California is in play is delusional. These things continue to change as each election goes. After New York, the brass bands will be out for Trump. So it’s up and down.
But the long game favors Cruz.
So who is paying for Kasich to stay in? Who benefits from the Anti-Trump forces to be split? I wonder...
I hope you don’t believe that clown. He’s been wrong at every turn.
The most recent poll is by SurveyUSA, in which Trump is leading by 8. Also I believe that SurveyUSA has a high accuracy rating.
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