Posted on 04/02/2016 10:58:26 AM PDT by NRx
Donald J. Trump’s presidential candidacy has stunned the Republican Party. But if he survives a late revolt by his rivals and other leaders to become the party’s standard-bearer in the general election, the electoral map now coming into view is positively forbidding.
In recent head-to-head polls with one Democrat whom Mr. Trump may face in the fall, Hillary Clinton, he trails in every key state, including Florida and Ohio, despite her soaring unpopularity ratings with swing voters.
In Democratic-leaning states across the Rust Belt, which Mr. Trump has vowed to return to the Republican column for the first time in nearly 30 years, his deficit is even worse: Mrs. Clinton leads him by double digits in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Mr. Trump is so negatively viewed, polls suggest, that he could turn otherwise safe Republican states, usually political afterthoughts because of their strong conservative tilt, into tight contests. In Utah, his deep unpopularity with Mormon voters suggests that a state that has gone Republican every election for a half-century could wind up in play. Republicans there pointed to a much-discussed Deseret News poll last month, showing Mrs. Clinton with a narrow lead over Mr. Trump, to argue that the state would be difficult for him.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
It’s not as simple as you seem to think it is, but I’ll play.
We know Hillary would do really bad things as president. We have no idea what Trump would do as president because he changes his mind on everything every few minutes. So he could accidentally be better for America. As president. Since he won’t be president he is merely part of the badness that is Hillary.
That has to be the lamest answer to my question that I could imagine. That is spin at it’s best. I am surprised that you would even attempt such an answer. Pure bull crap.
I’ve heard enough.
If you live by the polls, you die by the polls.
Trump’s appeal has always been his claim that he led in the polls and was a winner.
The fact that Reagan was behind and passed Carter should be no comfort. Perhaps we are seeing the sea change in reverse, e.g. the folks have seen enough of Trump to turn in favor of (gasp)Hillary in virtually every poll.
Trump doesn’t know politics. There is no evidence of an ability to build a campaign effort except for his tweets. And those early a.m. tweeets are getting him in trouble, enough that you begin to wonder why they are so controversial and what he is doing in the wee hours of the morning to give rise to such risky behavior.
I had no idea that the scope we apply to comparisons in our discussions could have such an impact.
I thought you were threatening Cruz supporters—I w ould drop dead before I ever voted for Hillary or Sanders,etc.
So why is Hillary Clinton being held up as the positive alternative? What is the thinking/feeling mechanism behind their argument that she’s the nation’s viable alternative? Do they think the electorate will credit her with the (relative) prosperity of her husband’s two terms? What does that have to do with her at all? She’s an untested candidate. She’s a Senator. She’s not being given equal billing with Trump; they’re assuming she’s the only logical choice. Why?
No. Not at all.
Florida 2016 Presidential Election Results:
TOTAL Votes Republican: 2,361,805
TOTAL Votes democrat: 1,709,183
Now Hillary split the vote with Bernie for the democrats, but Trump had to split with Rubio, Kasich, Cruz, Bush and Carson. And even Ron Paul still got over 1,000 Republican votes.
Who knows what one GOP candidate will get, but the GOP primary in total was bigger than Hillary and Bernie combined.
You sound like Glenn Beck.
Cruz was on a talk show a few nights ago and seemed unbelievably awkward to me. He’s not the kind to charm his way to the WH, that’s for sure.
Well, you can’t control how people vote in secret.
Damn, this is childish.
Really, and I’m a Trump supporter too...
The lesson from 2012 was Nate Silver is right. Screaming against scientific polls won’t change the outcome. The best you can argue is it’s too early for polls to be meaningful.
While democratic republicanism may work in some situations for a period of time, I do not accept it as either an ideal form of government or as one that is suitable to all peoples in all times and circumstances.Since you do not accept our form of government, why are you even involving yourself in a political conversation? Or, are you just here to disrupt?Conceding that no form of government is perfect and with the strong caveat that any state will function better if it is supported by a population with shared cultural and social values, I favor Christian Sacramental Monarchy as the least bad basis for the organization of the political state.
A majority of women dont care what Bill or Hillary have done to harm women. Despite the Lewenski, Jones, Broaderick, Willy scandals and mistrearments, they still have faverables with women.
But as of now, Trump is in serious trouble.
Possibly. Today he had large, enthusiastic crowds (5+ thousand counting the ones outside) along with 15,000+ watching the live streams at 3 events in Wisconsin, and he mentioned that they were expecting 15 to 20 thousand at an event in Milwaukee.
Push Polls have been lying about Trump for about 6 months now. I do not believe any poll with a sample of 600. I will believe any poll with an impartial random sample of 6 to 10 thousand . These polls are not statistical polls, they are propaganda masquerading as genuine statistical analysis when they are not.
So no, I will not be saying “the polls lie” right up to Trumps concession.I will be saying they lie because they are not statistical predictors, in other words, push polls.
As to Trumps concession? Well he has been declared dead for months now by thousands of pundits, but he is still a powerfully campaigning dead man, who is quite successful. Let Trump roll, and may the liars and his detractors croak and choke.
I'm talking about a MAN, not Rick Lazio. He went to Vassar and American U. That should tell you something right there.
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