Posted on 04/02/2016 10:58:26 AM PDT by NRx
Donald J. Trump’s presidential candidacy has stunned the Republican Party. But if he survives a late revolt by his rivals and other leaders to become the party’s standard-bearer in the general election, the electoral map now coming into view is positively forbidding.
In recent head-to-head polls with one Democrat whom Mr. Trump may face in the fall, Hillary Clinton, he trails in every key state, including Florida and Ohio, despite her soaring unpopularity ratings with swing voters.
In Democratic-leaning states across the Rust Belt, which Mr. Trump has vowed to return to the Republican column for the first time in nearly 30 years, his deficit is even worse: Mrs. Clinton leads him by double digits in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Mr. Trump is so negatively viewed, polls suggest, that he could turn otherwise safe Republican states, usually political afterthoughts because of their strong conservative tilt, into tight contests. In Utah, his deep unpopularity with Mormon voters suggests that a state that has gone Republican every election for a half-century could wind up in play. Republicans there pointed to a much-discussed Deseret News poll last month, showing Mrs. Clinton with a narrow lead over Mr. Trump, to argue that the state would be difficult for him.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
“All the media would not be trying to drive Trump from the race if they didn’t KNOW HE CAN WIN.”
Correct.
“He would be ignored.”
Yup. Like they’re ignoring Cruz and Kasich.
Trumps overall policies are to the right of Reagan, and I proudly worked for Reagan twice.
Trump's got more support at this instant among ‘latinos’ than Romney got in the general. He's equal among ‘blacks’, and none of this counts the ‘undecided’ percentages.
So in my book, more Republicans have to stay home and not vote than did in 2012, more independents have to vote for Hillary than voted for Obama, and more Democrats have to vote for Clinton than voted for Obama, just to equal Romney's loss.
And comparing the internals to this point in 2012, Trump's nearly doubled Romney's position among ‘minorities.’
Oh, and the polls that show that Cruz and others would have a cake walk against Hillary? They show equality with Romney's 2012 internals at this point, and effectively the primaries were over with.
Do I believe polls? Yep. Do I believe the conclusions that people are trying to push? Nope.
>>Comparing Donald Trump to Ronald Reagan is blasphemy
Deifying Reagan is idolatry. If he ran today, the Cruz supporters would be ripping him to shreds as a liberal, former Democrat, union boss.
I remember 1980. To the media and the GOP, Reagan was a kook. He was a loose cannon who would start WW3. He would destroy everything.
“Comparing Donald Trump to Ronald Reagan is blasphemy, or maybe just rank idiocy.”
But rest assured when you compare Cruz to him, the same people will find no fault whatsoever....because reasons.
>>>There is no escape for HIllary, she is going to be absolutely exposed for the criminal grifter she is and she will be finished. NONE of the other candidates will do that, they don’t have the gonads. Only Trump will and as I stated many times: If Trump is not the nominee I absolutely guarantee you 100% Hillary will be next POTUS.<<<
I prefer Ted Cruz. However you made me recall Rick Lazio. And then I remember how Trump shut down Hillary earlier this season by bringing up her past. I think most politicians are confused how to campaign against a woman. Trump simply wouldn’t follow established guidelines. For better or for worse.
I agree its early, but to discount all polling is silly.
PPP Clinton +7
Fox Clinton +11
Bloomberg Clinton +18
Quinnipiac Clinton +6
NY Times Clinton +10
CNN Clinton +12
Monmouth Clinton +10
He could be, if the number of “Republicans” and “Conservatives” who say they will vote for SWMNBN, actually do.
Once and for all, let’s dispense with the myth that Christine O’Donnell lost because she was such a terrible candidate. She lost because Republicans in Delaware voted for an avowed Marxist over a Conservative Republican.
The more we listen and obey the NYT and Wash Compost and LA Slime, the more people like SWMNBN and Coons will be elected. It’s fine to debate which candidate is better, so long as we focus on the real enemy - DEMs and RINOs.
I believe this is an absolute fallacy at this point. Neither party has even selected their nominee and the two nominees have not started in on each other yet.
Donald Trump has to have so much opo research on Hillary as to be spectacular. It took about two tweets to shut her down on calling him a sexist. He will steamroll her and IMO pull a lot of Dems and Blacks and win handily.
In your opinion. And probably nobody elses.
He hasn’t even debated her yet. Her inner strong, independent woman is going to crumple, as she has shown herself doing for years every time a man challenges her.
Did Jim say that? Really? Have not seen that at all.
Exactly right. If you scroll through the RCP polls, Cruz isn’t doing any better against Hillary and Bernie than Trump is. They’re both losing. That is mostly due to the heated rhetoric of a closely contested primary. It’s hurting both of them, which is normal. I’ve been around politics a long time, and none of this is new. While our guys are eviscerating each other, they look bad to the general public. It’s not something to worry unduly about, although that won’t stop the NYT from trying to make something out of it.
Hillary and Bernie are going at it, too, but the media isn’t “tsk tsking” over it like they are Trump and Cruz, so it’s not driving down their numbers.
Get the nomination process over with and we’ll see what the real numbers look like.
Its early and Trump may eventually get a lot of democrats to switch parties but unfortunately polling shows problems with that hope.
"A March Washington Post poll found that in a hypothetical matchup with Trump, Hillary Clinton wins Democrats 86 to 9 percent. That means, right now, that Trump does indeed gain a few more Democratic defections than Romney did. The problem is that Trump is only winning Republicans 75 to 14 percent. In other words, more Republicans are planning to vote for Hillary than Democrats are planning to vote for Trump, which helps explain why Clinton is leading in almost all the head-to-head polls."
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/03/the-myth-of-the-reagan-democrat/475608/
“I agree its early, but to discount all polling is silly.”
Agree. I think Trumps had his worst week to date and that’s reflected in this weeks national polling.
To discount the state by state polling for the national polling is also silly.
Even though he’s ahead of Hillary in the national polls, Cruz can’t win in the must win states of OH, Fl, PA. He’s behind in all those states.
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