Posted on 03/18/2016 12:44:39 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The new Emerson College poll for New York provides some good news for Donald Trump — for now, anyway. With more than five weeks to go before the Empire State’s primary, Trump trounces Ted Cruz for the state’s 95 delegates by more than 50 points, 64/12, with John Kasich only getting 1% despite his big win in Ohio. That puts Trump well over the 50% threshold for winner-take-all allocation, while leaving Cruz and Kasich well below the 20% threshold for any allocation in the event of a plurality. Trump, the home-state candidate, also gets the most favorable marks in the GOP field, +48 against Cruz’ +8 and Kasich’s +20. The small sample of 298 likely Republican primary voters leaves the margin of error at 5.6%, but with gaps like these, the MoE is an afterthought.
However, when it comes to the general election, the news looks worse — much worse, in fact, for the argument that Trump will expand the GOP map:
Looking ahead to the general election, the two Democrats do equally well in a head-to-head matchup with Trump. Clinton (55% to 36%) and Sanders (53% to 36%) lead the reality show star by 19 and 17 points, respectively, while Cruz loses to Clinton by 31 points (61% to 30%).
The MoE on the full survey is a much more reasonable 3.5% on a sample of 768 likely general-election voters, so these numbers are a little more solid. The only bright spot for Trump in the general-election numbers is that Cruz does worse at 61/30, but that’s a cold comfort in a general election, where Electoral College votes are winner-take-all.
Furthermore, these numbers are almost exactly the same as two successive Siena polls got in the past two months, surveys with even larger sample sizes and a traditional live-call model. In February, the race was 57/32 Clinton, and two weeks ago Siena had it at 57/34. That’s close to the margin by which Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney in 2012 (62/36). All three polls show no upside for Republicans by having Trump on the ticket, not even with New York being his home state and the base of his business operations. Clinton may be underperforming Obama, but not by much.
Of course, the general election is still seven-plus months away, but that would only matter if New Yorkers hadn’t gotten to know Donald Trump well (or Hillary Clinton, for that matter) before now. Trump’s ubiquitous in New York, though, and voters there know him better than voters in most other states, with the possible exception of Florida — where Trump actually looks more competitive, but where Republicans have been much more competitive in presidential elections anyway. Romney only lost Florida by a percentage point, getting to 49%, while the RCP average of head-to-head polling there has Trump down 2.2 points … and Trump going no higher than 47% in any of them.
Given this lack of change over Romney’s 2012 performance in New York, where’s the evidence that Trump expands the map? If at this point Trump can’t get to 40% in his home state in head-to-head polling, what makes anyone think that Trump could beat Hillary in California or Massachusetts, or even in Pennsylvania or Michigan? The theory that Trump expands the Republican general-election map and provides a new path to 270 has no evidence supporting it. Right now, it looks like pure fantasy.
She is...and there’s plenty that still see her that way. I believe Trump will take New York handily.
Obama beat Romney by 29 points in NY. Trump starts out 12 points closer than that. Interesting.
Trump has been in business for a lot of years. Where is the laundry list of enemies and their anecdotes about this wannabe Hitler? The entire uniparty/media establishment can’t come up with anything, yet I’m supposed to believe he’s unelectable because a bunch of traitorous RINOs and their lickspittles and toadies on the FR say so? LOL!
Trump has yet to begin walloping Shrillary. I am confident those numbers will change.
Mitt Romney lost by 28 points in New York>
Trump haters need to get a life.
He's closer than any other candidate would be.
If he's 11 points closer in NY than Romney, he might just win a state like Pennsylvania.
Look at the 2012 map and you will see the map for 2016. A comfortable win for Hillary over Trump or Cruz....or any compromise candidate the GOPe rams down our throat. The permanent Democrat majority is here.
At this point in 1980, Carter had a 6% lead, with John Anderson polling at 21%. It was nothing like the margins we are seeing today. This fall is going to be a landslide for Clinton, and the end result of the Trump candidacy will be firm establishment control over the nominating process from now on. They will be able to say “we told you so”.
Unless you have an iron clad guarantee from the manufacturer of your Magic 8-Ball, the future has yet to be written.
Yes she did, and she is openly loathed there to this day.
Does anyone outside of the planet Kolob think that Cruz, Kasich, Romney, or Ryan, are going to outperform Trump in New York?
I won’t hold my breath.
OK, Dick.
I don’t know, but Resident Trump and his Trumpites insisted he could win New York and a bunch of blue states, often as their justification for not caring if conservatives backed him or not.
It don’t work that way. The path to winning through Democrat territory never works...ask Dole, McCain, Romney...
Correct assuming all the illegals who can not vote, do vote....all est. 35,000,000 of them.
Packing the ranks of the FSArmy with illegal foreigners here for the free sh*t, is something the suicidal RNC leaders push....meaning the Repub Party leadership has been bribed, blackmailed or brain washed into working to destroy their own Party....or they are Trojan Horse agents who actually are DNC agents.
Either way, it is distressing to be the one aware crab in the rapidly heating pot of water, trying to interest the other crabs as to the imminent dangers to all. Hard to watch the Republic die....
I’m reminded of a song by the Knickerbockers in the 60’s. “Lies. Lies. Can’t believe a thing you say.”
Clinton can’t draw a crowd.
Listening to her screeching talk is like fingernails on a chalk board.
She is totally corrupt.
She has committed many crimes.
etc etc
Yet she would handily beat Trump, etc?
Truly, Dem voters are total zombies.
I have never thought NY, CT would be pushovers, but I do think for once they are “in play.” I think PA, MI, NJ are much more in play than ever. And I think as of now Trump would win FL, NC, NV, MO, and probably OH (close) vs. Clinton to win the general election.
But I don’t want a win. I want an absolute CRUSHING of that vile creature.
If Trump doesn’t have a prayer, why are Hillary, Soros, BLM, and the entire MSM attacking him even before he has the nomination?
Read the internals of the cited poll. They are weighted for the 2012 Presidential election results.
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