Posted on 03/09/2016 1:56:08 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Earlier today Ed Morrissey wrote about a new NBC/WSJ poll showing Donald Trump could lose to Hillary Clinton by double digits in a general election. An ABC/Washington Post poll also published today has similar findings:
Should this matchup come about, the current advantage is Clinton’s. She leads Trump by 50-41 percent in vote preference among registered voters, her widest advantage in three ABC/Post polls since September. Among all adults, including those currently not registered, Clinton’s lead swells to 54-36 percent. And the public by 59-36 percent predicts that Clinton would win — up from a 12-point gap on this question in January to 23 points today. (Some political scientists suggest that, early on, expectations outdo preferences, predictively.)
If you’re keeping track, 50-41 is actually a better result for Trump than the NBC poll which has the matchup at 51-38. Still, looking at the details it’s not hard to see why Trump is in trouble. He trails Clinton in almost every personal metric including honesty:
The big one though might be empathy. You may recall that Obama’s re-election race in 2012 became a contest between Mitt Romney the competent manager and Barack Obama the likable, empathetic President. On the question of who really cares about people “like you” Obama always had the advantage. And as it happened a major storm hitting the east coast days before the election gave Obama a chance to demonstrate that empathy for voters.
There’s a reason Hillary is touring the country saying things like, “I believe what we need in America today is more love and kindness.” That’s not a policy it’s a pose. But the important point is she’s doing it because it has frequently worked in the past and will probably work again in 2016.
Trump does a little better when it comes to policy areas, though here again he is trailing on every issue including immigration:
Now it’s certainly possible that some of the 1,000 respondents to this poll have a detailed knowledge of both Trump’s and Clinton’s positions on each one of these issues. However, I suspect it’s more likely that the majority of respondents are giving a gut response answer based on a few things they’ve heard, i.e. Trump wants to ban Muslims and deport immigrants while Hillary was Secretary of State. Those factoids become the basis of answers to questions about terrorism, immigration and international crisis. And as ABC points out, a majority of Americans don’t like some of Trump’s most discussed ideas:
Trump’s challenged, as well, by the fact that Americans by 63-33 percent oppose his suggestion to temporarily ban Muslims from entering the country, and by 61-36 percent disagree with the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants. Those views are closer among registered voters, but still with majorities opposed, 60 and 58 percent, respectively.
The strength and boldness of these positions obviously appeals to a plurality of GOP voters, but a majority of Americans probably just see them as unkind. And in a general election, unkindness loses to the person talking however ham-handedly about “love and kindness.”
To further the point, where Trump does appear to do well is where he expresses his own version of love and kindness. Maybe you’re thinking he’s not doing that at all but you’d be wrong. When it comes to veterans, who he promises to take care of, when it comes to people who have lost jobs to outsourcing who he promises to help find jobs for again–Trump does express empathy for people and it does draw people to him. In fact, Trump’s frequent focus on trade issues and the need to do better for people struggling in a stagnant economy is probably why he is so competitive with Clinton on the economy in this poll.
This election isn’t a battle of detailed policy positions. Hillary Clinton knows that. At base, what is working (and also not working) for Trump is the same thing working for Clinton. The person elected in 2016 is probably going to be the person who is strong, competent but who really seems to care about the issues (lack of jobs, poor treatments of vets, etc.) that matter to the largest share of the electorate.
I sure do trust an NBC/GE poll.
The desperation is increasing. We’ve already had ‘Trump will kill no telling how many’ to ‘Trump will start World War III’ to now we have the ‘Trump is Hitler’.
There will be even more as time goes on. Especially after next Tuesday.
Trump is surging now!
An oldie but a goodie:
Jeb Bush surges to lead GOP pack in new 2016 poll
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/jeb-bush-surges-lead-gop-pack-new-2016-poll
What happened!!???!!!@
Nothing you post or say will matter. The Trumpees are deep in the pon farr over Donald.
FLASH BACK:
1980...Yet another poll indicating that Reagan will lose to Carter in general election.
These poll are done to boost Hillary’s base and to keep them energized. We all know that they are all in her pocket, certainly you don’t expect them to broadcast a poll where Trump would schlong her? The only time the poll would support a Republican is when its someone they feel will lose against her. This is Liberal Logic 101 to use these polls top keep their candidate in the minds of the mindless.
They are cementing behind Cruz because they KNOW Trump will END their cozy little club of criminal collaboration AGAINST WE THE PEOPLE!
I expect these polls to change once Trump goes head-to-head with Clinton and she can't hide.
For now, it is useful to the MSM to try scare voters into not choosing Trump with these polls.
-PJ
Hotair are open borders shills. It’s a funny website. 90% of the comments are trashing the faux conservative writers of the articles.
These polls are laughable in the extreme. Trump will demolish Her Thighness.
I like her other moniker “Cankles” as well.
Im a Cruz supporter all the way but I call BS on this poll. Trump will win states no other Republican has won since Reagan.
I’d be curious how the primary model operates, it could be a valid weighing of the factors or it could be chicken entrails (but direct polls before any real debating has happened are at least equally suspect).
I think Trump on Clinton will be a cathartic moment for America. All those pent up lies, and one merciless Alpha Dog on her back. The polls will zoom up.
Okay, so Hillary wins the convention, makes 0bama her running mate. Hillary resigns office due to (ahem) health and 0bama is president again. Wins another term after that. /sarc
It’s not “yet another” It’s the same WSJ lawn cigar that’s beed posted 4 times today.
BS
Just part of the all out war to defeat Trump.
Not buying into in light of that big fact.
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