Posted on 03/09/2016 1:56:08 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Earlier today Ed Morrissey wrote about a new NBC/WSJ poll showing Donald Trump could lose to Hillary Clinton by double digits in a general election. An ABC/Washington Post poll also published today has similar findings:
Should this matchup come about, the current advantage is Clinton’s. She leads Trump by 50-41 percent in vote preference among registered voters, her widest advantage in three ABC/Post polls since September. Among all adults, including those currently not registered, Clinton’s lead swells to 54-36 percent. And the public by 59-36 percent predicts that Clinton would win — up from a 12-point gap on this question in January to 23 points today. (Some political scientists suggest that, early on, expectations outdo preferences, predictively.)
If you’re keeping track, 50-41 is actually a better result for Trump than the NBC poll which has the matchup at 51-38. Still, looking at the details it’s not hard to see why Trump is in trouble. He trails Clinton in almost every personal metric including honesty:
The big one though might be empathy. You may recall that Obama’s re-election race in 2012 became a contest between Mitt Romney the competent manager and Barack Obama the likable, empathetic President. On the question of who really cares about people “like you” Obama always had the advantage. And as it happened a major storm hitting the east coast days before the election gave Obama a chance to demonstrate that empathy for voters.
There’s a reason Hillary is touring the country saying things like, “I believe what we need in America today is more love and kindness.” That’s not a policy it’s a pose. But the important point is she’s doing it because it has frequently worked in the past and will probably work again in 2016.
Trump does a little better when it comes to policy areas, though here again he is trailing on every issue including immigration:
Now it’s certainly possible that some of the 1,000 respondents to this poll have a detailed knowledge of both Trump’s and Clinton’s positions on each one of these issues. However, I suspect it’s more likely that the majority of respondents are giving a gut response answer based on a few things they’ve heard, i.e. Trump wants to ban Muslims and deport immigrants while Hillary was Secretary of State. Those factoids become the basis of answers to questions about terrorism, immigration and international crisis. And as ABC points out, a majority of Americans don’t like some of Trump’s most discussed ideas:
Trump’s challenged, as well, by the fact that Americans by 63-33 percent oppose his suggestion to temporarily ban Muslims from entering the country, and by 61-36 percent disagree with the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants. Those views are closer among registered voters, but still with majorities opposed, 60 and 58 percent, respectively.
The strength and boldness of these positions obviously appeals to a plurality of GOP voters, but a majority of Americans probably just see them as unkind. And in a general election, unkindness loses to the person talking however ham-handedly about “love and kindness.”
To further the point, where Trump does appear to do well is where he expresses his own version of love and kindness. Maybe you’re thinking he’s not doing that at all but you’d be wrong. When it comes to veterans, who he promises to take care of, when it comes to people who have lost jobs to outsourcing who he promises to help find jobs for again–Trump does express empathy for people and it does draw people to him. In fact, Trump’s frequent focus on trade issues and the need to do better for people struggling in a stagnant economy is probably why he is so competitive with Clinton on the economy in this poll.
This election isn’t a battle of detailed policy positions. Hillary Clinton knows that. At base, what is working (and also not working) for Trump is the same thing working for Clinton. The person elected in 2016 is probably going to be the person who is strong, competent but who really seems to care about the issues (lack of jobs, poor treatments of vets, etc.) that matter to the largest share of the electorate.
I believe nothing media says. I believe nothing GOPe says.
Like my brother says, Hillary has moth balls to fire at Trump, Trump has atomic bombs. He is going to absolutely pulverize her. And he doesn’t have to be nasty about it, all he has to do is lay out the facts, let the people decide. Bills rape victim Juanita Broaddrick absolutely detests Hillary with every fiber of her being, so needless to say Trump will have no issue getting her to make an ad for him on the character of the Clintons, and that is just ONE atomic bomb, and Broaddrick WILL do it. She was absolutely outraged when Hillary made that video against sexual assault last year and made it a point to let that be known. Just like Trump gave a voice to the families of people killed by illegals, he will do the same to the victims of the Clintons. Hillary is TOAST.
The Primary Model (2016) 87%-99% Certain Trump Will Be President
These polls are laughable in the extreme. Trump will demolish Her Thighness.
Please allow me to translate what the poll takers really are saying with this poll:
“OMG! If Trump should get elected he might really do something about illegal immigration and cheap labor in foreign countries!!!”
Sub-theme:
“Can you imagine if he really fired all our patronage cronies out of the Depts of Education and DEP???”
That is the point of the poll. The WSJ is a disgusting illegal immigration pimp operation.
Unless there is MASSIVE voter fraud in EVERY SINGLE STATE, there is NO WAY that Hillary beats Trump!
I also do not believe Americans oppose freezing muslim refugee immigration, no matter what who told a polster.
He’s the only one who can.
“Her Thighness” - rotflol
I’m not a big fan of polls like this but at the very least trump needs to use these as an indicator of areas he needs to improve.
Id like to know how both match up in states like Michigan, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia..and LOL they think Hillary is honest and trustworthy..OJ Simpson is more honest than Hillary Clinton..I have a feeling the fools they polled live in California and Vermont
Keep it up, your just convincing people to vote for Trump and we need all the rest of the American Voters, those that are lagging behind, to join with our big voter block...
If the media thinks that by pounding out these negative articles about Trump is going to change anything, they are wasting their time and effort....WE the American Voters are deciding this election, so go take your typewriters and your shovels and start cleaning out the gutters of America, we need them cleaned!!!
Herr Drumpf will not.
Try State Polls and the amount of Electoral Votes each State
Gezz
March 1980
National Poll
Jimmy Carter 53
Ronald Wilson Reagan 31
Trump is in Good Shape
They must have polled the the same day that the EBT CARDS GOT RELOADED..................
These polls have been very inaccurate for most recent primaries. They had Clinton beating Sanders in Michigan by over 20 points. They had Trump losing New Hampshire and South Carolina.
A supporter once called out, “Governor Stevenson, all thinking people are for you!” And Adlai Stevenson answered, “That’s not enough. I need a majority.”
Trump losing to Clinton in a fair election? I’d say that’s all ‘hot air’, eh Mr. Sexton?
A poll by and for mental defectives.
If you think Cruz will break 40% in the general, you are smoking crack.
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