Posted on 03/09/2016 8:06:49 AM PST by usafa92
Donald Trump leads native son Sen. Marco Rubio 45 – 22 percent among Florida likely Republican primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today, with 18 percent for Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and 8 percent for Ohio Gov. John Kasich. This compares to a 44 – 28 percent Trump lead over Rubio in a February 25 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In Ohio, Gov. Kasich trails Trump 38 – 32 percent, compared to a 31 – 26 percent Trump lead February 23. Cruz has 16 percent, with 9 percent for Rubio.
(Excerpt) Read more at quinnipiac.edu ...
Ohio would be ideal, but not necessary next week. This fiction of adding other candidate’s numbers together is getting old. After Trump wins Florida next week this is over. Nobody will be able to beat him and then people start getting on board with the winner.
Right now the not-Tump numbers are greater than the Trump numbers.
Yes, it’s interesting to see Trump run an issues based movement while the rest of the GOP descends into intellectually bankrupt anti-Trump campaign. It’s truly sad to see “principled conservative” Ted Cruz parroting Mitt Romney’s viscous lies and teaming with corrupt Neil Bush.
I suppose we shouldn’t be too critical of the money the anti-Trump forces will spend, after Trump got millions of dollars worth of free prime-time TV on Fox, CNN, and MSNBC last night they probably need the money.
Both Illinois and Missouri are modified winner-take-all States. In Illinois, each Congressional District is winner-take-all for 3 delegates, and 12 delegates go to the overall State winner. Missouri gives 5 delegates to the winner of each Congressional District and 12 to the overall State winner. If anyone breaks the 50% mark statewide in Missouri, they receive all 52 delegates with no District distribution.
Missouri is much closer in makeup to Iowa, Kansas and Oklahoma than Kentucky. I think Cruz has his best State here next Tuesday.
“Turn the lights out Rubio...the parties over.”
Ditto for Cruz/K-sick. Time to unite!
If Rubio wants to run for governor of Florida he will drop out very soon.
If Trump wins Ohio and Florida, it would pretty much kill the idea of picking one of those losers as Veep on the assumption that would deliver their states.
Party may be over, but he is a spoiler intended to ensure a no-majority situation going into the convention. He will not quit - ever. At least until he’s assured whoever the backstabber establishment Republicans have on tap gets the nomination. It’s the only way he can salvage his Go8 career and get a cabinet position or something equitable. He sure as hell won’t be a Florida Senator anymore.
And even then, he still probably wouldn’t go over the top until the California and NJ primaries on June 7. That is one long slog.
Excellent flight map graphic here.
Trump already 6% ahead of schedule (and well under budget....LOL)
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/republicans/
Ping and bump!
FTFY.
Missouri is an open primary in a racially diverse state, which doesn’t bode well for Cruz. There is a western element to Missouri that will help Cruz some. Probably not enough is my guess.
Cruz’ entire pre-campaign strategy was to win a SOLID SOUTH going into the nomination convention. This has not happened, nor will he get the nomination unless he aligns with a GOPe that steals the nomination in a brokered convention.
Go Trump!
After Rubio’s performance last night, Trumps lead will expand in Fla,
instead of shrink.
“If Rubio wants to run for governor of Florida he will drop out very soon.”
I understand that the job of “Kennel Supervisor” @ the Broward County Animal Shelter is open! Florida needs to give Boobio a job commensurate with his true capabilities. A job he “won’t get tired of,” like his US Senate seat.
I still think DT could rack up all, or nearly all of the delegates there, much like he did in So Carolina.
(I can't wait to see some recent MO polls.)
Fox Business reporting Rubio’s donor class are suspending support unless internal polls show improvement. If not, saying that Little Marco may suspend his campaign before Florida. No comment from Rubio campaign.
What were Cruz's numbers going into Michigan and Mississippi yesterday?
Let's see, shall we!
Michigan
Cruz
RCP Poll average: 19.8
Actual Results: 24.9
Mississippi
Cruz
RCP Poll average: 17
Actual Results: 36.3
Cruz has been seriously over-performing his poll numbers pretty consistently since Iowa. So if he has 17 in Florida in the polls, it doesn't mean he will get 17 in Florida in the final vote.
Also note that there is almost 10% undecided in Florida. That gives a lot of instability to the numbers and things can turn quickly. A week is an eternity in politics.
The rules for MO will make that state interesting.
If no one gets 50%, it will be WTA by CD with 5 delegates per CD instead of the usual 3.
12 statewide will be WTA.
MO is kind of a crossroads. It has some KS-like qualities in places that favor Cruz and Southern/Appalachian qualities that favor Trump.
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