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Huffington Post: Trump Near-Certain to Defeat Democrat in November According To Primary Model
Huffington Post ^ | 3/7/2016 | Helmut Norpoth

Posted on 03/07/2016 8:45:38 PM PST by usafa92

With Donald Trump as the nominee, Republicans are highly certain to win the presidential election on November 8, 2016. Trump will defeat Hillary Clinton with 87 percent certainty, and Bernie Sanders with 99 percent.

These forecasts come from the PRIMARY MODEL. It is a statistical model that relies on presidential primaries and an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election.

Early primaries are a leading indicator of electoral victory in November. Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and the South Carolina while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders split the Democratic primaries in those states.

What favors the GOP in 2016 as well, no matter if Trump is the nominee or any other Republican, is a cycle of presidential elections. After two terms of Democrat Barack Obama in the White House the electoral pendulum is poised to swing to the GOP this year. This cycle, which is illustrated with elections since 1960, goes back a long way to 1828.

(Excerpt) Read more at huffingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New York
KEYWORDS: 2016election; cruz; election2016; elections; general; hillary; hillary2016; huffingtonpost; huffpo; idiocy; newyork; puffho; puffingtonhost; sanders; trump; trump2016
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To: teletech

Romney and his pack of thieves and oligarchs are ugly now. Why would they attack Trump, issues? No , not issues at all. Its about the power and money base they enjoy from the donor class. This is common avarice. But beyond that it is wrong. I want the out of our party as trouble makers.


81 posted on 03/08/2016 7:06:55 AM PST by WENDLE (Trump is not bought . He is no puppet.)
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To: WENDLE
Romney and his pack of thieves and oligarchs are ugly now. Why would they attack Trump, issues? No , not issues at all. Its about the power and money base they enjoy from the donor class. This is common avarice. But beyond that it is wrong. I want the out of our party as trouble makers.

Its all about the status quo.

82 posted on 03/08/2016 7:44:18 AM PST by teletech
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To: struggle

That would be great to hear him fire a bunch of money sucking lobbyists and worthless lackeys during the inaugural address. I am looking forward to an awesome 8 years of greatness and winning with Trump. It’s been truly miserable with the current *@*#&#^$ in the White Hut.


83 posted on 03/08/2016 7:58:52 AM PST by TheConservativeParty (TRUMPNADO)
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To: goldstategop

The GOP-RNC really stepped in it and showed their true selves this time around, more than ever. You are right, they really do want Hitlery rather than someone who will Make America Great Again. They just want their gravy train to continue, the bunch of selfish traitors, while the country dies a slow death year after year.


84 posted on 03/08/2016 8:01:06 AM PST by TheConservativeParty (TRUMPNADO)
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To: TheConservativeParty

“The GOP-RNC really stepped in it and showed their true selves this time around, more than ever. You are right, they really do want Hitlery rather than someone who will Make America Great Again. They just want their gravy train to continue, the bunch of selfish traitors, while the country dies a slow death year after year.”

Bears repeating.


85 posted on 03/08/2016 8:01:57 AM PST by AuntB (Illegal immigration is simply more "share the wealth" socialism and a CRIME not a race!)
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To: rineaux

Go Trump!


86 posted on 03/08/2016 8:03:01 AM PST by TheConservativeParty (TRUMPNADO)
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To: usafa92
YES! The ultimate First lady! Not guilty not guilty not guilty!


87 posted on 03/08/2016 8:03:58 AM PST by GrandJediMasterYoda (Can we please kill the guy already who invented the saying "My bad"?)
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To: usafa92

HuffPo knows he will be crushed under the weight of Hitlary’s attacks.


88 posted on 03/08/2016 8:04:39 AM PST by AppyPappy (If you really want to irritate someone, point out something obvious they are trying hard to ignore.)
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To: AuntB

You know, last time around I thought Paul Ryan was OK. He’s from my area, 30 miles from here. Even HE has proven to be a RINO! Geesh. Trump has done the best job of anyone at making the Elites and Establishment show themselves to us. There are precious few remaining in DC that I trust. Can’t even name one at the moment! I trust Trump though. When he talks he’s speaking for me. Seeing his rallies on TV is the highlight of any day. Last Saturday he spoke so long in Florida, that the DNC (or RNC?) ran out of protestors to interrupt Trump every 2 minutes. I love how he talks without a “speech” and can just speak from the heart.


89 posted on 03/08/2016 8:09:56 AM PST by TheConservativeParty (TRUMPNADO)
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To: gleeaikin

I haven’t seen it if he has.


90 posted on 03/08/2016 8:30:42 AM PST by DoughtyOne (Facing Trump nomination inevitability, folks are now openly trying to help Hillary destroy him.)
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To: Personal Responsibility

The pary dies in that moment.

It will never rise again either.


91 posted on 03/08/2016 8:47:55 AM PST by DoughtyOne (Facing Trump nomination inevitability, folks are now openly trying to help Hillary destroy him.)
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To: Bushbacker1

You’re right. The GOPpers expect the crowds Trump is bringing out to be there in Nov., if they steal this from him, not happening.


92 posted on 03/08/2016 9:24:30 AM PST by rineaux
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To: manc
Yes, you're correct. They already have those knives sharpened.

At the end of the day, the establishment needs/wants Hillary.

The destruction of America continues.

93 posted on 03/08/2016 9:27:22 AM PST by rineaux
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To: Albion Wilde

Thanks


94 posted on 03/08/2016 9:45:21 AM PST by GOPJ (Republican elites have turned into " race-baiting bigots" - feeding on PC mob evils.)
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To: rineaux
Romney and the billions of super pac dollars are going to make sure Trump will not be the nominee.

I hope they realize that would mean the utter destruction of the Republican Party which in my recent estimation would not be a bad thing. Just wait till the next cycle. It's too important to beat Hillary now. But a party remade in the very real vision of what is necessary would I'll bet, pick up the Latinos and the Blacks that really want to advance their family circumstances in the private sector. It may not be a lot, but I'll bet it would be enough to build a foundation that could itself grow to be a force in the minority communities.

95 posted on 03/08/2016 10:58:17 AM PST by ExSoldier ("Terrorists: They hate you yesterday, today, and tomorrow. End it, no more tomorrows for them!)
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To: usafa92

Might the leftist, trash-spewing Huffington Post have a good reason to advance Trump as the sure winner against Hillary? Only to turn around and start hosing Trump with the tankers full of sewage they’ve been saving to use against him in the general election?


96 posted on 03/08/2016 12:48:12 PM PST by Liberty Tree Surgeon (At least the trains will run on time...)
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To: usafa92
somebody should send this to the GOPe...
97 posted on 03/08/2016 4:32:33 PM PST by Chode (Stand UP and Be Counted, or line up and be numbered - *DTOM* -w- NO Pity for the LAZY - Luke, 22:36)
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To: goldstategop

Right! As long as the Elite Brahmans of the GOP are concerned; they couldn’t care less, so long as THEY retain their control and power over the Party. They are already doing just fine with the Democrats. Hilary is just a change of names for them. If Trump; then their Magical rolling B.S. show will stop, not slowly, and an early humiliating retirement will loom for them. Donald, not a naive man, will see them to the door, and quickly. This is the most humiliating part for them; there isn’t a damn thing they have that Trump wants of them -but GONE.

No man is perfect this side of Heaven; but God willing we should have a second Party with a spine again. Trump has one, and the Nation badly needs one again.

If/when this all happens it will never be the same again, but the deep down national cleansing is long overdue. Keep your eyes open,and let the good times roll!


98 posted on 03/08/2016 7:22:26 PM PST by windhover (I caught this morning mornings Minion, Kingdom of daylight's Dauphin.)
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