Posted on 03/04/2016 4:34:15 PM PST by GilGil
Thirteen states hold primaries or caucuses over the next two weeks. Of them, Trump is leading polls in nine, according to the RealClearPolitics average, including some of the most important, winner-take-all states.
The other states — Hawaii, Maine, Idaho, and Missouri — don't have any recent polls listed on the site. They're also the three states with the fewest delegates to award. And in Maine, Trump has the endorsement of Gov. Paul LePage.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
This late in the primary, the only reason to vet Trump now is either to have a split convention or to give ammo to the democrats.
Even Cruz fears a split convention now ...
CRUZ: Would lead to voter ‘revolt’...
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/271875-cruz-brokered-convention-would-lead-to-voter-revolt
The time for vetting the front runner is over.
I would personally cut Cruz a little slack in your post, but ...
‘Donald Trump lives in the real world, and apparently so do his children, which says something else about the old man.’
Right. The only president walking into the White House with more executive experience than Trump was Ike.
‘Trump is encased in verbal reactive armor.’
Well said. Armor that explodes back at the missile/shell/etc.
I added you to my ping list.
This should make you all feel better, and I’m sure they’ve run these at the GOPe HQ and on Faux News:
By most counts (don’t know why they can’t figure this out) Trump has 338 delegates toward 1236. That puts him ahead of schedule (so to speak) by about 18%.
Tomorrow’s primaries will likely give him at least 30% (maybe 40%) of the 134 delegates from KY, KS, LA, and ME (i.e., another 45 delegates). So probably by tomorrow evening Trump should have about 380 delegates, maybe more. On March 8 he will get 40% of MI, MS, plus some % of ID and HA, or about 55 more delegates (I have no idea how he’ll do in ID or HA) for a total of about 430 delegates by next week.
But the big enchilada is March 15, the second Super Tuesday where all of the big states are winner take all: FL, MO, IL, OH, and NC. Trump leads pretty big in all of those. That’s a total of 358 delegates. So there is a pretty good chance that by March 15, Trump will have almost 2/3 of the delegates he needs before he ever goes to the Northeast areas where he will just sweep (another 358 by my count in NY, RI, CT, WV, MD, DE, and PA). Even allowing for a few losses like UT or AZ (and he led the last poll I saw out of AZ), by the time you get to CA (172) Trump is at 1318. And, again, I’m not even looking at states where I haven’t seen polling or where it has not been favorable to Trump, such as MT, ND, UT, OR, WA, AZ, NJ (which he’ll win easy for another 57 delegates), SD, NM, IN, WI, or NE, plus the territories, all of which hold another 372 delegates. Many of these are winner take all, but not all, and even if he loses in many of these, Trump would still walk away with probably 20% at minimum, or another 50-60 delegates, bringing his total to about 1360.
But last I saw, Trump was leading in AZ, WI, OR, WA, IN, so it’s more likely he would come into the convention with closer to 1400 delegates. (please let me know if you have other updates on some of these in-state polls)
In other words, a blowout. They won’t be able to stop him.
Thanks for that. I was a little discouraged coming out of Super Tuesday.
This makes it look much better.
And Cruz voted for TPP/TPAA which is gutting the country of millions of jobs.
He also voted for the Corker bill which made it possible for Iran to get nukes and $150 billion.
Finally, his boy Beck suggested he would assassinate Trump by knifing him to death. Did Cruz disavow him like he demanded Trump disavow David Duke? No.
Cruz in the end is nothing more than an establishment shill. Don’t get your panties in a wad. Let’s look at the facts. Cruz is a shyster lawyer and he is as slippery as they come.
See my PM to you — I do have substantial experience with IL. There are some quite conservative citizens around - my Dad certainly was! Their numbers are significant. But many more are inclined along the lines of liking former Governor’s Jim Thompson & Jim Edgar, and are a bit uncomfortable with (current) Gov. Rauner. The “Jim’s” were at least competent and not crooks. Rauner does not seem to be a crook, but is locked in a titanic budget battle with the Dems & has not been able to garner enough public support for his position, IMO. Granted that most of the press opposes him: he somehow needs to overcome that.
Quite a bit of the downstate attitude is a reaction to the tone of too many Chicagoans toward downstaters, the Daley “machine”, way too much corruption, and so on, rather than ideological conservatism. (Sadly, IL has had plenty of corrupt Pubs, too, former Gov. Ryan being a prime example.)
Labor unions’ influence outside the Chicago area has diminished too, due to the near death of industry downstate, not to mention the same for coal mining in Southern Illinois.
All this regarding voter attitudes is a generality, of course(!) — I just don’t see IL pubs in general as being quite comparable to, say, Mississippi’ or Texas’ Pubs.
One interesting note: You’d think that Sangammon County would be blue, due to the numbers of State employees in and around Springfield. There must be lots of holdovers from the Thompson / Edgar / Ryan days...
That's an important point...
Trump is down to only a 5 point lead in Florida. There are 10 days left so he will likely fall behind next week
If FL supports that little twerp Rubio, they will prove to be fools. He was disgusting with his ‘small hands’ meme. Just disgusting.
But more than Rubio I blame Bill Clinton for lowering the political discourse in this nation and making trashtalk the norm. I’m not sure this nation will ever return to civility.
Don’t forget that YUUGE airplane. :^D But Trump detractors say Oh, he’s not that rich.
That may be cause, but it may also be effect — Trump may not have bothered with holding big rallies in states where he knew he might lose. And frankly letting Cruz win a few may have helped Trump, since it stopped the whole “Rubio is our only chance” momentum dead in its tracks.
They have that in common with virtually every GOP politician in Washington. Everyone of them road to power comparing their "conservative credentials" to Reagan. Empty rhetoric.
It doesn’t hurt Trump. He needs all the practice he can get in taking incoming — with the Clintons in charge, this election is going to be the dirtiest in recent history. Voters will price in all of the negative stuff they are hearing now.
He’s 100+ over 2nd booger, and over target to reach the 1237 goal.
All he needs today is 69 of the 155 to maintain that overage.
Pride. Trump builds a hotel, casino, golf coarse, etc and puts his name on it? Why? Because he says he is going to build something, does a spectacular job and is proud enough of his finished work to put his name on it.
What Trump says he'll do for the country as president, he'll do for the very same reasons. Pride in his work and his word. He has put his reputation at stake and that's a good thing. At least, unlike career politicians, he has a reputation for getting things done right.
I agree! Worthy of its own thread? I think it deserves a wider audience. :)
Illinois is Trump Territory, IMO. Rubio will do well in the more well off Chicago suburbs and deny Cruz enough anti-Trump votes to overtake Trump.
If Trump doesn’t win all states, it’s voter fraud.
“Cruz is Canadian.”
......and a Cuban, and an American, and Illegible to be POTUS....
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