(link)Posted on 02/20/2016 9:21:50 PM PST by smoothsailing
February 20, 2016
by sundance
In August of 2015, against considerable backlash, we stood firm on a fundamental position that Senator Ted Cruz did not have a pathway, a roadmap, to victory in the 2016 GOP presidential primary.
Despite the fundamentally sound reasoning for our prediction, which was entirely based on congressional district by district analytics, our position drew an immense amount of criticism and even a quick response from the Cruz campaign itself (Brian Phillips).
Unfortunately, tonight’s South Carolina results vindicate a massive amount of historical research. There simply is no pathway to victory when you rely almost exclusively on “proselytizing as an electoral strategy“:
(link)
It’s not personal, it is simply a factual reality. The Ted Cruz Road Map is non-existent; and beyond the SEC primary states there is little to no organization at all. Nothing in the state of Florida. The campaign is NOT what most people have been led to believe it is.
We strongly urge people to do their own research and to connect their own dots. The campaign will NOT stop sending you donation requests, that much is certain.
And I’d also vote for Ted if he got the nomination, despite you and other Ted Cruz supporters’ irrational anger towards me.
Except most of the states in the south are not open primaries. Committed Socialist could vote for their Republican choice, since either Clinton or Sanders would be acceptable (pushing the socialist agenda forward).
Georgia, Alabama and Arkansas are open primaries. Trump is leading in every state in the SEC except it may be a little closer in AR.
Coming off wins in SC and NV Trump’s poll numbers can only go up in front of the SEC. I still think there is a good chance Jeff Sessions endorses Trump.
The Media groups don't want Trump, hate Cruz, and promote Rubio.
The country isn’t as conservative as he would try and have you believe he is. He’ll complain about “New York Values” to the camera, then take all the Gay New York Values money he can.
It's strange how the tone changes during the election cycle. Previously, posts were supportive of the conservative standard bearers during the shared struggle against the oppressive, authoritarian Obama regime. Posters here cheered the stands taken by Carson and Cruz.
Yes, moderate Republicans failed to stand with conservatives in their effort to stop the drive to destroy our Republic. Yes, we are all sorely disappointed, but is this a reason to eat our own. Is this a reason to start calling our allies names and deriding them for not being pure enough conservatives.
I fear the angry tone will cause us to fragment when we finally have a nominee. I also believe there are those on this forum (new and old) who have that purpose as their goal. I also believe this same thing took place during the last two presidential election cycles.
Many stayed home because the candidate they had selected during the the primary withdrew or lost. They considered the nominee too moderate or liberal. We seem to stand strong during the interim congressional elections and elect Tea Party conservatives. But then, when nonconservative Republicans disappoint us, we demagogue not only those who disappointed us, but also our standard bearers.
I have a presidential preference and will vote for that choice in the primary, if he is still a candidate when I get to vote. I also know that whoever is the Republican nominee will receive my vote in the general election.
The alternative is a socialist dictatorship, with a leftist judiciary majority supporting the further destruction of our Republic.
My one hope is that if Trump is the eventual nominee, and elected, he will truly take conservative stands to restore our American Republic.
The alternative is that our party will have swallowed the promise of “Hope and Changeâ€Â, in a different guise, and we will once again be betrayed and disappointed.
Remember the South Carolina Primary was an open primary, and Democrats are helping us determine our nominee. Who do you think they voted for in the SC primary.
Pray for our Republic. Call for a Convention of States, and Restore Our American Republic.
Cruz was desperate to win Iowa where he knew he had a decent chance, unlike New Hampshire. He was desperate enough to have Glenn Beck come in to help with (I suppose) the evangelical vote and the religious Christian vote
What I “hate” is people claiming to be conservative who make it their number one priority to be one of the first fifty on EVERY thread to bash Cruz, the most conservative candidate in the race.
That is the “irrational” thing I am seeing. Unless, of course, they are not truly conservative or are being paid to do so. Then it makes perfect sense.
The problem is Cruz voters, and their advocates, are emotionally driven by social issues. Hence they yell a lot (See Mark Levin) and only respond well to others who are inside their echo-chamber.
Sorry bubba, you are not looking at it thru trumps view point. Rubio is no threat in the long run. If you were trump who would you like the final show down with?
“Cruz voters, and their advocates, are emotionally driven by social issues.”
No we aren’t. The social only conservatives like guys like Huckabee. We are total conservatives who are sick and tired of being taken for granted.
You want a socialist or felon, pick a GOP ticket that rejects social conservatism. It is not our fault that libertarians and fiscal-only conservatives do not care about children being adopted and raped by gay men or little babies being killed to sell their body parts.
You may be right, but I’ve seen little else but emotionalism from far too many Cruz supporters. Maybe the problem is Beckism and dominionism, lots of emotion there.
“you are not looking at it thru trumps view point. Rubio is no threat in the long run”
Rubio is no threat now, with so many candidates splitting the vote. There are a lot of voters who see Cruz and Rubio as ideologically equivalent. Those of us who remember how Rubio double-crossed the tea party who got him elected, do not trust him at all. But, in a way, both of them being in the race together helps Trump. If either drops out, the other will get a boost, unless there is an endorsement of a different candidate (such as Trump).
“dominionism” is not a theological term. It is a marketing term originated by non-Christians designed to insult certain Christians and blame them for an imagined conspiracy to take over the world for Jesus.
http://www.conservapedia.com/Dominionism
I am sure that many people would agree whole heartedly to your opposition of Cruz on the supposed basis of “dominonism”, including Planned Parenthood and NARAL.
Evangelicals represent a large percentage of the population but are under-represented in our government. None in the white house. None on the Supreme Court. Very few in the legislature.
I’m not opposed to Cruz per se, although he has been a disappointment. He started out as my second choice but lost me with the Carson flap, and it’s been downhill ever since.
No, I’m opposed to the way his campaign is being run by some suspect characters like Jeff Roe and Glenn Beck.
Handing out soccer balls and teddy bears to illegal aliens is not my idea of conservatism. We should turn them around and head them back the way they came, not give them free stuff. It only encourages more illegal behavior. Not a shining moment for Ted.
And then there’s the nonsense with Beck claiming God killed Scalia to benefit Cruz. Why can’t Cruz tell Beck to stand down and fire Roe while he’s at it?
I think Huckabee endorses Trump in Arkansas.
Just gotta feeling.
But it won't be until after Nevada, so he can make the "inevitability" argument.
The SEC likes winners.
Cruz must go first because rubio would be much easier to defeat on a one on one contest.
Moot point though, looks like both rubio and cruz will go to the end making it easy for donnie.
Folks saw the REAL Cruz vs what he preached and said “No thanks”.
Sadly for Ted the tribe has spoken. He will soon need to turn in his spear.
He is just too conservative for the average GOP voter.
People on Free Republic hate hearing this but its true.
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I’m not even sure that the amount of how conservative he is really matters.
The problem is that Cruz’s entire campaign was running on, “Look at me; I’m the most conservative and the most Christian candidate in the race!”
You’re not going to win many people by just flaunting that at them, especially if you’re going to hypocritically start sleazing all over the place.
Whereas Trump is a populist, but he A: Addresses issues that people are really worried about, and B: makes arguments for solutions. And that is so much more attractive to people in general, even many people who are super-conservative.
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