Posted on 02/01/2016 6:21:43 AM PST by xzins
A final Quinnipiac poll ahead of the Iowa caucus finds Donald Trump’s support steady at 31 percent while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)97% has dropped 5 points in the last week.
Cruz currently has the support of 24 percent of likely caucus-goers, according to the poll. Last week, his support was 29 percent.
The poll also shows a late increases in support for third-place Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)79% . The Florida senator has 17 percent support, up from 13 percent last week.
Trump’s current 7-point lead in the poll, released on the day of the Iowa caucus, seems to come completely from the drop in support for Cruz. The poll anticipates a big surge in turnout for the caucus. Trump has an 18-point lead among first-time caucus-goers.
The surge in turnout anticipated by Quinnipiac would change greatly the composition of the electorate voting Monday. If the Quinnipiac assumption on turnout is correct, only around 40 percent of caucus-goers would be evangelicals, a dramatic drop from the previous two caucuses.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
National Weather service is saying:
Today
Areas of dense fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Calm wind becoming east northeast around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
A chance of rain and snow before 8pm, then snow. (about 25% chance until 10, then 57%) Areas of blowing snow after 5am. Low around 31. Windy, with an east northeast wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Tuesday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after noon. High near 33. Windy, with an east northeast wind 22 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
According to the article, in order to get this respectable lead for Trump, Quinnipiac assumes a historical drop in both evangelical and very conservative voter turnout. These are 2 blocks which unsurprisingly are for Cruz.
What do they base this on? Why, for the first time in decades, would a huge number of evangelicals and very conservative voters decide to sit out the caucus?
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They are not assuming a drop in evangelical and very conservative voter participation. They are assuming a surge in voters outside those group. That surge would dilute the effect of the evangelicals and very conservative.
The assumption is merely that. We shall see.
Why are you watching Faux? OANN is much better.
When do they actually have results?
“Only $25 . If I was homeless, maybe. Boost it up to $50 and I’ll think about it.”
For me, they’d have to throw in earplugs, too. :-)
I think he knew that, but Cruz had other problems that Trump exposed.
I always worry that these people hurt each other so much that the democrats will have a cakewalk to victory.
Dish network-—they don’t carry OAN. I called and complained to no avail.
Is that real? Yebbie pays to get people to sit?!
Glen Beck is one reason I would have a hard time with Cruz. Beck is nuts.
Thank you, that clears that up.
Maybe a guesstimate of 11:00 PM Central? That will allow an hour for fun and games. I expect there will be some.
Exit polls and spin probably beginning around 7:40 Central.
Just guesstimating based on general reporting in the past.
The faster the reports the more confidence I will have in their accuracy.
Sheer hatred, their teeth hurt from the gritting and grinding.
Their vote will amount to nothing, but to show how stalwart and non bending they are in their perceived self righteousness, they utter those words to show the reader how much they still can make a difference and are a force (vote) to be reckoned with.
But I think they let you sleep through it all, and they might have punch and cookies too.
It’s real.
If all the establishment candidates except Rubio dropped out, that would be bad news, since the combined total of Rubio, Jeb, Christie, Kasich, and Fiorina in national polls would put the establishment ahead of Cruz and right behind Trump. Luckily the Bush political machine is too powerful and well-connected/funded for the RNC to force him out, so with any luck he and Rubio will stick it out until the end fighting over one another's votes.
I doubt Kasich, Christie, or Fiorina will still be there after super-Tuesday, however. There's also the question of where Carson's remaining 7-8% will go if/when he drops out.
Some places will have results published within an hour. By 11 pm Central, most results will be in. Should things be close, keep in mind that official results won’t be concluded a for a few days.
A Roku is about $100 that is how I get OANN. They report not twist the news.
I'm thinking Sarah Palin endorsement. Plus Rand Paul and Rubio slamming Cruz over his truthfulness in the debate. Paul in particular since Paul is known to be an honest person.
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