According to the article, in order to get this respectable lead for Trump, Quinnipiac assumes a historical drop in both evangelical and very conservative voter turnout. These are 2 blocks which unsurprisingly are for Cruz.
What do they base this on? Why, for the first time in decades, would a huge number of evangelicals and very conservative voters decide to sit out the caucus?
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They are not assuming a drop in evangelical and very conservative voter participation. They are assuming a surge in voters outside those group. That surge would dilute the effect of the evangelicals and very conservative.
The assumption is merely that. We shall see.
When do they actually have results?
Thank you, that clears that up.