Posted on 02/01/2016 6:21:43 AM PST by xzins
A final Quinnipiac poll ahead of the Iowa caucus finds Donald Trump’s support steady at 31 percent while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)97% has dropped 5 points in the last week.
Cruz currently has the support of 24 percent of likely caucus-goers, according to the poll. Last week, his support was 29 percent.
The poll also shows a late increases in support for third-place Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)79% . The Florida senator has 17 percent support, up from 13 percent last week.
Trump’s current 7-point lead in the poll, released on the day of the Iowa caucus, seems to come completely from the drop in support for Cruz. The poll anticipates a big surge in turnout for the caucus. Trump has an 18-point lead among first-time caucus-goers.
The surge in turnout anticipated by Quinnipiac would change greatly the composition of the electorate voting Monday. If the Quinnipiac assumption on turnout is correct, only around 40 percent of caucus-goers would be evangelicals, a dramatic drop from the previous two caucuses.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
He has been working the Evangelical vote in Iowa hard and the Evangelicals show up on caucus night.
It would be amazing since he is a Catholic.
Go Trump 2016!
“Looks like Rubio will be the establishment’s last hope.
I expect they’ll ask Bush to drop out shortly.”
I still think the hidden knife is Willard. Someone pointed out in passing that several of the most strident and alienating “Cruzers” were former Willard minions. They still might be. Sow enough chaos for a brokered convention, and the smiling, reluctant, happy mortician face of Willard might suddenly fill our screens again.
That could be an agenda mostly or wholly separate from the GOPe.
According to the article, in order to get this respectable lead for Trump, Quinnipiac assumes a historical drop in both evangelical and very conservative voter turnout. These are 2 blocks which unsurprisingly are for Cruz.
What do they base this on? Why, for the first time in decades, would a huge number of evangelicals and very conservative voters decide to sit out the caucus?
Cruz may have a chance if the outcome is like a Mexican election where the vote percentages total out to about 120%
Neither he nor Cruz are Washington politicians. They’re outsiders. So is Cruz. Maybe Fiorina.
Trump is so unorthodox that he will upset the apple cart. Everyone’s fighting over some conservative purity test, and they use it to kill of the non-establishment candidates, forgetting that there is ZERO establishment types who would pass their test, but they’ll let them sneak in the back door.
Trump, Cruz, and Carson fighting to win over each other? Sure, that’s to be expected. But having someone get so wrapped around the axle that they’d say, “Well, I hate this guy so much that I’ll vote for....(add an establishment name).
That isn’t retribution. That’s suicide.
Agreed. I strongly prefer Cruz.
But I’ll take Trump.
Defeating the Uniparty is Job#1.
They put Romney up again, and I walk. Period.
Ted is Cruzing into irrelevance.
The two ineligible candidates, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, are wasting, according to one poll 24% and 17% respectively of the vote that could have gone to one of the other remaining candidates. The 41% of the votes added to the votes for one or more of the other candidates would out vote Trump. So, if Trump wins, voters only have Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio and their supporters to blame for splitting the votes to the advantage of the Donald Trump, whom you say you dislike so much. Brilliant move to grab defeat from the jaws of victory.
Another poll showing Trump leading. Well if there turnot models are correct it will be a bad day for me and a good day for you.
Coulda sworn I just heard the chick on Fox News say “Front runner Ted Cruz...” (while interviewing a rather subdued Karl Rove)
I think Rubio will finish second ahead of Cruz and the GOPe will have an on-air celebration because they’ll think they’re back in the game again. Ted had an awful last week of the campaign, and though I do support him, I realize tonight is must win for him and it doesn’t look good. New Hampshire doesn’t bode well for him either.
Only $25 . If I was homeless, maybe. Boost it up to $50 and I’ll think about it.
The big picture is to defeat Hillary, Uncle Joe, or Comrade Sanders.
Maybe more than 7!
“Today I was shown a piece of literature from the Cruz for President campaign that misrepresents the role of my office, and worse, misrepresents Iowa election law.
Rain, Snow and Ice at 7:00 P.M.:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/des-moines-ia/50316/hourly-weather-forecast/328810?hour=17
The fact is....When Trump dropped out of the debate...he automatically exposed Cruz directly into the line of fire. Cruz looked weak as a front runner. This is why he is tanking now. Brilliant tactical move by Trump!
Trump’s personal jets don’t get stuck in the mud.
Maybe we *should* vote for someone who isn’t afraid to get their hands dirty among the “little people.”
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