According to the article, in order to get this respectable lead for Trump, Quinnipiac assumes a historical drop in both evangelical and very conservative voter turnout. These are 2 blocks which unsurprisingly are for Cruz.
What do they base this on? Why, for the first time in decades, would a huge number of evangelicals and very conservative voters decide to sit out the caucus?
According to the article, in order to get this respectable lead for Trump, Quinnipiac assumes a historical drop in both evangelical and very conservative voter turnout. These are 2 blocks which unsurprisingly are for Cruz.
What do they base this on? Why, for the first time in decades, would a huge number of evangelicals and very conservative voters decide to sit out the caucus?
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They are not assuming a drop in evangelical and very conservative voter participation. They are assuming a surge in voters outside those group. That surge would dilute the effect of the evangelicals and very conservative.
The assumption is merely that. We shall see.
You nailed it.