Posted on 02/01/2016 6:21:43 AM PST by xzins
A final Quinnipiac poll ahead of the Iowa caucus finds Donald Trump’s support steady at 31 percent while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)97% has dropped 5 points in the last week.
Cruz currently has the support of 24 percent of likely caucus-goers, according to the poll. Last week, his support was 29 percent.
The poll also shows a late increases in support for third-place Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)79% . The Florida senator has 17 percent support, up from 13 percent last week.
Trump’s current 7-point lead in the poll, released on the day of the Iowa caucus, seems to come completely from the drop in support for Cruz. The poll anticipates a big surge in turnout for the caucus. Trump has an 18-point lead among first-time caucus-goers.
The surge in turnout anticipated by Quinnipiac would change greatly the composition of the electorate voting Monday. If the Quinnipiac assumption on turnout is correct, only around 40 percent of caucus-goers would be evangelicals, a dramatic drop from the previous two caucuses.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Looks like Rubio will be the establishment’s last hope.
I expect they’ll ask Bush to drop out shortly.
This is the exact margin I have been predicting here in FR for weeks:
Trump over Cruz by 7 points in Iowa.
MailerGate didn’t help.
Cruz should have stayed drafting on Trump longer. He got out of his wake too early.
Wow...all that most probably from the “shaming” letter. Let this Cruz campaign lack of judgement be a wake up call for all campaigns in the future....there are limits.
Mailer got me mad, too, but there are too many other issues at stake for me. Life and the constitution.
My assessment is that Cruz made several mistakes:
1) He allowed the media to goad him into attacking Trump.
2) He didn’t pull out of the Fox Ambush (Debate) and join Trump at the Veteran’s Event.
3) MailerGate was an unforced error that placed him squarely in the perceived DC Uni-Party bucket.
4) Desperation and the Smell of Fear in his accusations.
It is too bad. He showed some real potential, but he needs seasoning.
Unknowns:
Weather.
Turnout.
Everybody’s second choice when their guy is too weak.
In other words, Peak Trump is somewhere around 40%. The other 60% have to think hard about who to support in light of that.
If in spite of that Trump wins, I think it’s over. Iowa plays to Cruz’s strengths. He can still do well in SEC and Trump could flame out, but both happening are unlikely.
Go Cruz! Tonight’s the night.
Getting stuck in the mud didn't either...a metaphor for the Cruz campaign generally.
And he still supports amnesty.
Hope those evangelicals are discerning about their own jobs.
Don’t forget about the “New York values.”
I don’t want an establishment candidate, but the GOP-E has been working overtime to get us conservatives to fight with one another and let another good ole boy politician slip through the back door. They’ve done that for years and it works.
My intention now, the same as it always has been, is to kill the establishment one way or another.
Why would I want one of them in charge? Look what they’ve given us? Years and years of losses on every front. They are worse than inept. They are on the other side.
Is that for real? I think I’ll die laughing.
I see much of the establishment hooking their wagons to Trump. Some are saying anyone but Trump while others are quietly backing Trump.
Jeb is a jobs creator!
It’s real.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.