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Why the Fourth Most Popular Candidate in Iowa Is in First Place
Weekly Standard ^ | John McCormack | Jan 31, 2016

Posted on 01/31/2016 6:24:22 PM PST by Isara

Des Moines - In the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll, Donald Trump leads the field at 28 percent with Ted Cruz in second place at 23 percent and Marco Rubio in third at 15 percent.

What's remarkable is that Trump is leading despite fact that's he's a deeply polarizing figure among Republicans: Nearly half of likely caucusgoers (47 percent) view him unfavorably, while 50 percent view him favorably. Trump's +3 favorability rating is well behind the favorability ratings of Ben Carson (+50), Marco Rubio (+49), and Ted Cruz (+37). Polling analysts note this is highly unusual:

...

"It makes you scratch your head," J. Ann Selzer, the pollster who conducted the Des Moines Register survey, tells me. "The field is so big--that's part of it. You've got more popular candidates not getting the first-place vote."

The poll found that Trump would lose a two-man race against Cruz by 18 points--53 percent to 35 percent. Close to a majority of Iowa caucusgoers (48 percent) have become less comfortable with Trump winning the GOP nomination. And the largest percentage of caucusgoers (37 percent) said the nomination of Trump would be "not OK" with them. (Just 20 percent said the same of Cruz and 15 percent said the same of Rubio.)

...

(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa; US: New York
KEYWORDS: 2016election; canadian; cnsrvtvtreehouse; cruz; election2016; eneligible; erickerickson; glennbeck; iowa; johnmccormack; marklevin; mediasmear; megynkelly; newyork; pinkstain; pinkstate; politico; redstate; redstategathering; rogerailes; smear; sundance; trump; weeklystandard
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To: Zenjitsuman
-- ... boycott FOX and Trumps positives will go up as their ratings go down. --

Oh, don't you see? The fewer people who watch, the higher the ratings go. Sort of like the head scratcher here, the more people vote for Trump, the lower his favorability rating / the less he is liked.

121 posted on 01/31/2016 11:46:54 PM PST by Cboldt
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To: r_barton
I think the same is true for Ted Cruz. Not saying both of them were not smart. But if both [Cruz and Thomas] were WASPS would they still be where they are?

Are you not familiar with Thomas' confirmation hearing? It was brutal -- because he was black! The Democrats turned it into a "high-tech lynching".

And I can assure you, as a Texas voter, that there was absolutely no affirmative action associated with Cruz's election to the Senate. He ran as a conservative Texan. There was no pandering to the Hispanic vote; Cruz doesn't even speak Spanish well enough to pander.

122 posted on 01/31/2016 11:56:10 PM PST by okie01 (The Mainstream Media: IGNORANCE ON PARADE)
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To: Isara

Weekly Standard? This is your source?


123 posted on 02/01/2016 12:25:13 AM PST by stocksthatgoup (Trump then Cruz for me. I want to see Hillary, Bernie or any demoncrap crushed)
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To: topspinr

So voting for the last two flip flippers didn’t work, but somehow Trump will?

You are so emotionally attached to the man... Please look semi critically at what you are doing.

Voting for someone espousing universal healthcare coverage as recently as YESTERDAY...?

Does that REALLY sound like someone we need to support...?
Obama 2.0


124 posted on 02/01/2016 3:57:13 AM PST by plewis1250 (The pecking order: Christian, American, Conservative)
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To: gleeaikin

No I never had Cruz on a pedestal, but I did admire for standing up for the people in Texas that voted him in and chastising the frauds in the senate.

I don’t like this mailer thing at all, no matter who was responsible, but it doesn’t change my concerns about Trump.
I feel like I don’t really know the man, his personal life story is definitely a mixed bag.

I’m concerned about which Trump would be president if he wins, man of the people or man of his buddies and elite equals. I’m waiting to see how things progress. I think a defeat in Iowa for him might be good. Setbacks can improve character.


125 posted on 02/01/2016 7:00:04 AM PST by fingers_crossed
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To: plewis1250

No, i rely on logic not emotion. (Never fall in love with a politician, you’ll be disappointed every time)

I like both Cruz and the Don.

Positions no one else took up, made Trump more of an upfront candidate for his leadership against the GOPe.

Agree with you on the issue of Universal Healthcare, but the invasion of people from the mid-east is paramount.


126 posted on 02/01/2016 8:19:44 AM PST by topspinr
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To: fingers_crossed; catnipman; Aria; DoughtyOne; nopardons; abigkahuna; All

This morning I finally heard an MSM news report mentioning Trumps comments on the shaming letter, but little detail. Has this had more play in Iowa media? SO far as weather is concerned it appears that the bad part of the storm won’t hit until midnight and later. It could impact candidate travel.

Here is an interesting article polling between 300 and 400 likely voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. It is interactive with a dot to click for Democrat and Republican answers on things like how much would different weather conditions affect your voting, and how important is climate change to you. It also lists recent polling data and percentage of votes for top 3 Pubs and top 2 Dems.

https://weather.com/news/news/weather-channel-poll-likely-voters-iowa-new-hampshire


127 posted on 02/01/2016 8:34:30 AM PST by gleeaikin
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To: topspinr

So if Obama suddenly cracked down on immigration from the Middle East, you’re fine with him?


128 posted on 02/01/2016 8:38:41 AM PST by plewis1250 (The pecking order: Christian, American, Conservative)
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To: gleeaikin

“Has this had more play in Iowa media?”

googling shows some TV coverage in Iowa:

https://www.google.co/?gws_rd=ssl#q=cruz+mailer+iowa+secretary+of+state&tbm=nws

The real danger to Cruz though, is the fact that Iowa is a caucus state, where small groups from each Precinct gather and debate amongst themselves. A few articulate and passionate folks can easily sway the undecideds or those not fully informed. All it will take for the Trump supporters is to bring one of these mailers to each caucus.


129 posted on 02/01/2016 8:40:03 AM PST by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: catnipman; gleeaikin

https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=cruz+mailer+iowa+secretary+of+state&tbm=nws

Please don’t click on the link in my original post. I made an editing error. The above is the correct link.


130 posted on 02/01/2016 8:44:46 AM PST by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: PA Engineer

“I’m disappointed. You have been a strait shooter in the past. There is nothing true in your post.”

I obviously don’t have personal knowledge. But the facts are well-reported.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/for-years-trumps-charity-gave-veterans-little-more-than-peanuts/article/2000776

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/donald-trump-donations-democrats-hillary-clinton-119071


131 posted on 02/01/2016 8:44:52 AM PST by Jewbacca (The residents of Iroquois territory may not determine whether Jews may live in Jerusalem)
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To: okie01

Just for my clarification, When did Senator Cruz give up his Canadian citizenship, and when was the senatorial election?


132 posted on 02/01/2016 8:45:14 AM PST by going hot (Happiness is a Momma Deuce)
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To: PA Engineer

Sorry, forgot the strip club part:

http://www.nj.com/atlantic/index.ssf/2013/07/strip_club_coming_to_atlantic_city_casino_reports_say.html


133 posted on 02/01/2016 8:47:26 AM PST by Jewbacca (The residents of Iroquois territory may not determine whether Jews may live in Jerusalem)
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To: going hot

Has Trump given up his British citizenship, given his mother was Scottish, thereby making him eligible?

Of course not. Because we don’t care what stupid citizenship laws are in other countries.

All the birther stuff is stupid.


134 posted on 02/01/2016 8:49:03 AM PST by Jewbacca (The residents of Iroquois territory may not determine whether Jews may live in Jerusalem)
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To: Jewbacca
Was asking a question, because it was mentioned that he was campaigning as a Texan. he renounced in may 2014. Therefore, he was campaigning while a registered Canadian citizen for a national Senator from Texas.

Currently, he is a citizen of the US.

Weather he is eligible to run for prez is still not determined, and will not be determined on these pages, although it does need to be addressed once and for all.

However, that is not why he fails to generate much interest other than on these same pages. His citizenship is pretty far down the list of his unfortunate negatives.

135 posted on 02/01/2016 8:55:15 AM PST by going hot (Happiness is a Momma Deuce)
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To: going hot

I think a lot, if not most, of the negatives are nonsense promoted by the Rubio camp.

In particular, Megan Kelly effectively apologized for using misleading video to try to paint Cruz as soft on immigration.

Sessions was very clear that Cruz was the person who killed the Gang of 8 -— yes, by using sneaky and underhanded methods -— but that is what it takes to destroy the RINOs that run the Senate.


136 posted on 02/01/2016 8:58:46 AM PST by Jewbacca (The residents of Iroquois territory may not determine whether Jews may live in Jerusalem)
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To: gleeaikin

Thx for the polling/weather data, very interesting stuff. I’ve more concerns about that shaming letter online than in newspapers. But regardless it was one of the worse strategies/ideas I’ve seen in a campaign and something I’d expect a democrat rather than a republican. Let’s see how it plays out.


137 posted on 02/01/2016 8:59:01 AM PST by fingers_crossed
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To: Jewbacca
Well, there is that.

Thinking voters are not swayed by megan.

Cruz appeared the perfect candidate, but as the months wore on, his rap and presentation just did not ignite, until he started to pay attention to what resonated, and massaged his presentation, which gave him a slight boost, but in the end, he just does not appear sufficiently kick ass and take names.

I imagine him as president debating with senators and representatives on the merits of this and that.

That is not going to even began to turn the ship of state, much less put on steam in another direction.

What he believes is one thing, but what he is willing to do to get it done is another.

Not sufficiently impressive at this time.

138 posted on 02/01/2016 9:06:02 AM PST by going hot (Happiness is a Momma Deuce)
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To: going hot

You’re correct Cruz is pretty dry.

I’d love to combine the showmanship and charisma of Trump with the substance of Cruz and maybe the looks of George Clooney, but I’d also like to have Superman’s powers and have a torrid romance with Wonder Woman.

Given the choice between flash and substance, I choose substance.

But, then, I drive an old Defender.


139 posted on 02/01/2016 9:37:57 AM PST by Jewbacca (The residents of Iroquois territory may not determine whether Jews may live in Jerusalem)
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To: Bobalu

post 8

*like*


140 posted on 02/01/2016 9:39:20 AM PST by samtheman (Elect Trump, Build Wall. End Censorship.)
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