Posted on 01/31/2016 12:04:23 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
The final Des Moines Register poll was just released, showing Donald Trump leading the Republican field in Iowa with 28 percent, Ted Cruz with 23 percent and Marco Rubio with 15 percent. Hillary Clinton was ahead of Bernie Sanders, 45 percent to 42 percent, on the Democratic side. The political world - us included - was eagerly awaiting this survey, as Ann Selzer, who has conducted the Register's polls since the 1988 caucuses, has a very good track record. But just how predictive of the final results have Selzer's polls been? History suggests they're a good indicator of what will happen in Monday's Iowa caucuses, though there is room for a candidate or two to surprise.
I've gathered Selzer's final caucus polls for Republicans and Democrats since she started at the Register. For each race, I've calculated the difference between all candidates' polled percentage of support and their final share of the vote.
Selzer's final poll has correctly projected every single winner except for Republican Rick Santorum in 2012.
And the Register poll's successes haven't been limited to blowout races. She caught the late momentum for Democrat John Kerry in 2004 and famously called Barack Obama's victory in 2008.
Even when Selzer's final poll missed the winner in 2012, it still indicated the potential for Santorum to win. The survey was conducted over four days, and in addition to the topline, aggregate numbers, Selzer released day-by-day results. The final day of her last 2012 caucus poll showed Santorum within a percentage point of Mitt Romney. In fact, the average error per candidate of the last day of her final 2012 caucus poll was just 1.9 percentage points.
Indeed, what makes Selzer truly special isn't just that she calls winners but that her error rates are fairly low across all candidates. Her average error per candidate per year has been just 3.3 percentage points. That means that what a candidate receives in her poll is probably going to be pretty close to what he or she gets from voters.
That's not to say the Des Moines Register poll is perfect. It sometimes misses on a candidate by a lot. Selzer's final poll in 1988 missed Republican Pat Robertson's eventual vote share by just more than 10 percentage points. Same thing with Kerry in 2004.
Who might benefit from that type of miss this time around? History suggests there are two types of candidates who tend to outperform their polls. The first is a candidate who does well among Christian conservatives. Selzer's final polls on the Republican side in 1988, 1996 and 2012 all missed the candidate favored by Christian conservatives by at least 8.5 percentage points. That could be good news for Cruz. Secondly, candidates with late momentum, such as Kerry in 2004 and Santorum in 2012, also tend to beat their polls. That could be beneficial to Rubio, who seems to be gaining in some polls.
Could there also be a big error on the Democratic side? It's possible, but Selzer did particularly well in 2000, the last Democratic campaign with only a few candidates running. Fewer candidates means voters have an easier time settling on one candidate and reallocation of support becomes less of an issue.
Of course, we won't know how accurate Selzer's final poll is this year until Monday or the day after. It's worth remembering, however, that even the best pollsters - and Selzer is one of the best - aren't perfect.
In the Des Moines poll, Cruz has 33% of Evangelical conservatives in Iowa, Trump has 19%.
In the Des Moines poll, Cruz gets 28% of the voters who believe that the system is rigged against them (by the rich/government), Trump gets 20%.
In the Des Moines poll, Cruz is 2nd choice for 17%, Trump gets 7%.
In the Des Moines poll, Cruz's favorability is 65%, Trump's is 50%.
In the Des Moines poll, enthusiasm for Cruz is 56%, for Trump 44%.
According to poll analysis, voters are more comfortable with Cruz - more knowledgeable, better representative to the world.
According to poll analysis, in a one-on-one between Cruz and Trump, Cruz pulls 53% to Trump's 33%.
According to the poll analysis, if Evangelical conservatives caucus in large numbers, it favors Cruz.
I give Cruz 20% chance of winning....Trump 60%
I just hope we can all come together for the general after this brutal primary season! :-/
Good luck with this. You are more than going to need it. BTW, libbylu got zotted. A cpl others too. Been nice (Not so) knowing you.
“BTW, libbylu got zotted.”
WHERE??? I could use the laugh before I go to bed.
He/she/they will be back in a couple days I am sure.
“So far, everyone that’s attacked me has gone right down the tubes.”
-Donald J. Trump
BTW, TBBT is gone as well.
You want me to be “zotted?”
What have I done to be kicked off of FR?
She is a she and went off the deep end when a thread showing Heidi Cruz went **cookoo post birth was posted. Nothing wrong with **post partum stuff IMHO, but it made **libbylu go bat poop crazy.
**Note to self... Women are unpredictable and scary.
Backed the “wrong” candidate, it would seem.
You have done nothing but screed deary. Move on. Walker is gone. There are many steps to grief. Get over the anger part. I actually like you. I am just warning you many are gone. Jim has apparently had his fill of this crap.
Good. CW better watch herself. Her harpy screed has me at the end of my rope. I have to imagine the powers that be are getting close.
No different than being zotted here 4-5 years ago just for criticizing Sarah Palin
That would rain hell down on you from 90% of the forum and could result in the Lightning Ride from Fresno
Nobody complained the much did they?
Hell no people cheered....I got slimed just for saying I thought she was running even I’d just paid 700 bucks to see her at a relatively small private function
And btw....some of those folks who were the loudest callers for the zot then turned right around this time and ridiculed Sarah Palin for endorsing Trump
Primary season brings out the N&Ns
Nuts and Nasties
The Cruz or else crowd went bonkers because they got close and it hurts
I understand that part of it
He’s young and this race exposed his flaws....he can return
Trump likely will serve only one term...he needs to pick a good VP
Trump 28% Cruz 25% is really pretty close. And the snow is gonna fall Monday night...I believe the Cruz’s true believers will prove the more hardy voters.
Oh, I don’t know 2DV - I know there is a huge backing for Ted Cruz on FR.
Ted Cruz’s supporters are just more polite and tend to “sit back” when swarmed by commenters who post over the top personal insults (I know first hand) - a tactic done to divert attention away from serious issues and from candidate vetting, by dragging the tenor of debate into a brawl.
I’d read about the snow.
I agree with your take.
Selzer is a great pollster; REALLY good.
This article is correct; the entire thing hinges on Trump’s supporters actually attending the caucus. The extreme wing of evangelicals WILL be there duly supporting Cruz as instructed.
The Trump campaign knows this and is doing a good job of educating new attendees as to how/where to cast their vote. Generally, it is very difficult to get normal people to show up at these things...but I think we may just do it this time!
What “crap”?
It’s up to the caucus voters and we’ll know soon.
Apparently a few Trump supporters want Jim Robinson to make this a "safe space" for them. ;-)
Do you see Trump’s flaws?
According to poll analysis, in a one-on-one between Cruz and Trump, Cruz pulls 53% to Trump's 33%.
That is what stings so badly! We could get Trump, a candidate most GOPers DO NOT WANT, let alone most general election voters, just because of vote-splitting among everyone else. This suggests heavily that Cruz must stay in all the way to the end, because as other candidates drop out, support will coalesce among Cruz.
This poll also shows that Cruz would only get 1 delegate less than Trump if the results stand. So not a substantive "loss" at all.
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