In the Des Moines poll, Cruz has 33% of Evangelical conservatives in Iowa, Trump has 19%.
In the Des Moines poll, Cruz gets 28% of the voters who believe that the system is rigged against them (by the rich/government), Trump gets 20%.
In the Des Moines poll, Cruz is 2nd choice for 17%, Trump gets 7%.
In the Des Moines poll, Cruz's favorability is 65%, Trump's is 50%.
In the Des Moines poll, enthusiasm for Cruz is 56%, for Trump 44%.
According to poll analysis, voters are more comfortable with Cruz - more knowledgeable, better representative to the world.
According to poll analysis, in a one-on-one between Cruz and Trump, Cruz pulls 53% to Trump's 33%.
According to the poll analysis, if Evangelical conservatives caucus in large numbers, it favors Cruz.
I give Cruz 20% chance of winning....Trump 60%
I just hope we can all come together for the general after this brutal primary season! :-/
Good luck with this. You are more than going to need it. BTW, libbylu got zotted. A cpl others too. Been nice (Not so) knowing you.
Trump 28% Cruz 25% is really pretty close. And the snow is gonna fall Monday night...I believe the Cruz’s true believers will prove the more hardy voters.
Selzer is a great pollster; REALLY good.
This article is correct; the entire thing hinges on Trump’s supporters actually attending the caucus. The extreme wing of evangelicals WILL be there duly supporting Cruz as instructed.
The Trump campaign knows this and is doing a good job of educating new attendees as to how/where to cast their vote. Generally, it is very difficult to get normal people to show up at these things...but I think we may just do it this time!
According to poll analysis, in a one-on-one between Cruz and Trump, Cruz pulls 53% to Trump's 33%.
That is what stings so badly! We could get Trump, a candidate most GOPers DO NOT WANT, let alone most general election voters, just because of vote-splitting among everyone else. This suggests heavily that Cruz must stay in all the way to the end, because as other candidates drop out, support will coalesce among Cruz.
This poll also shows that Cruz would only get 1 delegate less than Trump if the results stand. So not a substantive "loss" at all.
Who knows what will happen Monday night. But I know this: I am happy I finally have an anti-illeglal immigrant candidate who is winning the polling in almost every state. Trump is in as good shape as he could possibly be given Iowa’s politically religious bent, evangelicals etc. I’d rather be in the shape we’re in as opposed to supporters of Ted.
Trump 2016.
So in other words, Trump wins by at least 10. That’s near the high end of most polls, but definitely possible.
The Des Moines Register has a good track record.
However, this is just one point outside the margin of error, iirc.
So, as always, it depends on turnout. I’ve checked the National Weather service for Des Moines (middle of state) for Monday, and it’s a high of 39 and cloudy. That’s not bad, so there will be no excuses. That’s almost sweater weather.
Whether large or small turnout, it depends on WHO turns out. Trump has a lead, but it’s only a slight lead. I have no illusions going into this. The time for propaganda in Iowa is just about over.
I’ll be surprised if Trump is really ahead in Iowa. I have been thinking Crez would take it. Iowa being funny and all...
Mitt Romney, not Rick Santorum, won the 2012 Iowa caucus. Yes, the margin was only 8 votes.
I’m surprised that FiveThirtyEight got that wrong.
Well, that’s good for Cruz.
Trump can afford to lose Iowa. Cruz cannot. If Cruz doesn’t win tomorrow, it may be a mortal blow to his campaign.
Go Canada!
You might not want to count to heavily on those votes going to Cruz just yet
I would not be surprised if Rubio wins, or finishes a strong 2nd, tonight.
According to polling a plurality of Iowa voters are either undecided or soft in their support for any candidate.
Religious voters play a significant role in Iowa politics.They faithfully show up on Caucus night.
Religious voters have demonstrated in the past a distaste for candidate who engage in the bare knuckle politics Cruz/Trump have recently engaged in.
Historically polling in Iowa has been rather inaccurate. Iowa almost always produces a surprise result.
Recent polling in Iowa has been showing strong movement to Rubio. The trends in the latest polls shows movement away from Cruz to Rubio.
Rubio has gone full out of for the religious votes. His ads spend a lot of time with him talking about his religious faith. His stump speech spend a lot of time on his faith. Rubio is a good con-man. Like most people withou any core principals, his is good at selling what ever he is talking about at any one time.
Team Cruz switched from targeting Trump to going after Rubio on Friday.