Selzer is a great pollster; REALLY good.
This article is correct; the entire thing hinges on Trump’s supporters actually attending the caucus. The extreme wing of evangelicals WILL be there duly supporting Cruz as instructed.
The Trump campaign knows this and is doing a good job of educating new attendees as to how/where to cast their vote. Generally, it is very difficult to get normal people to show up at these things...but I think we may just do it this time!
It’s up to the caucus voters and we’ll know soon.