Trump surpasses Cruz in 538's Iowa odds

FiveThirtyEight ^ | 01/28/2016 | Nate Silver

[ScottWalkerForPresident2016]

According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump has a 48% chance of winning the Iowa caucuses.

[StAnDeliver]

" It was something like 22 out of 25 or so of the group thought Rubio won, which is quite impressive."

Fox manufacturing consent? As Trump pointed out beforehand? Say it isn't so!

[DoughtyOne]

Yes

LOL

And remember, that was set up in 24 hours.

[PUGACHEV]

"Listening to C-Span and the calls after the vet event. Couldn’t believe all the democrats calling in saying they were voting for Trump."

A lot of my friends are democrats, even of the yellow dog variety, and yet many support Trump. They won't say it openly, and usually not in front of each other, but they tell me so. Especially the men have a very hard time swallowing Hillary. I joke, you need to cut them off before you can vote for her, but you get a complementary set of Crocks as a consolation.

[NKP_Vet]

Would be surprised if he picks Huckabee.

[Ted Grant]

It’s more likely than 48% that Trump will win Iowa.

[COUNTrecount]

Marco Rubio Previously Paid Pollster Frank Luntz, Who Praised Rubio on Fox News

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/01/29/marco-rubio-paid-pro-rubio-fox-news-pollster-frank-luntz/

[hawaiianninja]

...if he were on a ticket the Dems would fight it tooth and nail taking it to higher levels.

I agree wholeheartedly. As it is, according to a Freeper post, the libs already have lawsuits filed in three states (I only heard of one). But, as I have said before in another thread, a legal clarification would make it easier to bat down the Dems. I even pulled a quote from a Fox News article entitled "Judge Nap: Cruz's American Citizenship Is Settled and Established" for support: [Judge] Napolitano said Cruz could benefit from getting this cleared up now, rather than later. But he noted that Trump is correct that the Supreme Court has never reviewed the law "because the issue has never come up."

In fact, when Trump brought up the issue in the first place, it sounded more like sound advice to me than mud-slinging. But it has unfortunately escalated since. :/ But I'm still hopeful! :)

[MayflowerMadam]

“In fact, when Trump brought up the issue in the first place, it sounded more like sound advice to me than mud-slinging.”

That’s exactly how it sounded to me, too. I’m screaming at the TV, “Cruz! Pay attention! He’s trying to help you.” But Cruz went merrily along, almost arrogant in his belief that he’s above the issue. But he isn’t.

Although I’m for Trump, I’d love to have Cruz as a viable alternative as we never know what might happen in the next few months.

[Dave W]

No, I don't believe that. I am amazed the people who think there is a conspiracy around every corner, stop sign and stop light.

But I understand. People so deeply want to believe that their cause, their choice, their candidate is as deeply held, believed and cherished by others, that any sense of reality that may intrude is completely explained away by dark forces, bad polling, he's compromised because of ..., and the list goes on.

They do it with a straight face and when it does not work out, it is because the votes were fake, manufactured, the voting machines were manipulated by so and so. The poor folks can never say, "I guess my choice lost. I guess my cause is not shared by as many as I thought."

I will never forget the days of Alan Keyes. The posters here were so passionate snd believed in their candidate to the extreme blocking out all reality that this guy is flawed. It was such a shock to people when he lost and not just the first time around, but when he ran for the US Senate in Illinois. Unfortunately, that race kind of ripped the scales off his face.

Anyway, I'm not a big fan of Rubio for a number of reasons. But I know what I saw and what I heard. Rubio had a great night and deserves his good notices. Just because I thought he won the debate does not mean I am going to vote for him and I am sure the same is true with the focus group. There is no way Rubio is going to win that many votes in a crowded field...it isn't going to happen, but they acknowledged he did a good job. That is all that is meant, so don't assume anything more. Besides, Rubio has no ground game and his team has even said they believe advertising is the main ingredient they needed. Since Rubio's team canceled some advertising this week tells me they know they are going to lose.