Trump surpasses Cruz in 538's Iowa odds

FiveThirtyEight ^ | 01/28/2016 | Nate Silver

[ScottWalkerForPresident2016]

According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump has a 48% chance of winning the Iowa caucuses.

[Cboldt]

The trick is going to be getting Rubio above Cruz before Monday.

[JerseyDvl]

Quite the grumpy bunch. Most remind me of Mark Levin.

[lewislynn]

Trump would be forced to select Cruz as VP

LOL! not on your life. Trump is not going to subject himself with the burden of Canadian Cruz even if a judge rules in his favor.

Cruz is toast no matter what a judge says. The Democrats would hound him as illegitimate until he crawls under a rock...And then hit him again every time he sticks his head out for air.

just to bring the disgruntled Cruz supporters into the fold for the general.

Relatively speaking "Cruz supporters" amounts to a tiny bubble here at Free Republic.

Trump will do just fine without you.

[Dave W]

Actually, he does not have a ground game. I read where Trump was doing it on the cheap. Example: All the candidates have a phone bank with phones that automatically dials the next number, obviously much more efficient. Trump is the only campaign that uses cell phones and the callers have to use call sheets and self dial. He hates to spend money because my theory is he does not have 1.5 billion in cash to spend on the campaign - liquid assets. He may have the net worth, but not in liquid assets to spend.

It may cost him on Monday night. Also, his supporters tend to be made up of a greater percentage of dems and independents. Trump has made zero effort to have them change parties before the caucus. They can change on Monday night, but there is a potential for chaos or if there is a turnout, run out of forms, etc. Anyway, just two examples.

[Dave W]

Santorum was in 4th place before the caucus 4 years ago and won. It was a complete surprise. I have read the main reason he won is because of that Van evangelical dude who endorsed Santorum four years ago. Also, a large number of voters don't make up their mind until the last few days (something I have never understood).

[Dave W]

People misunderstand the Luntz' groups. He does get a good cross section. It was something like 22 out of 25 or so of the group thought Rubio won, which is quite impressive. That does not mean they are going to vote for him. I thought Rubio was really good tonight, excellent, in fact. It was his best debate and I do agree and thought he won, but that does not mean I am going to vote for him in the Virginia primary on March 1.

Rubio is not going to get 22 votes out of that group tonight - it isn't going to happen. I can be objective and give candidates credit for making a good point, but that does not mean I am going to switch my vote because of a few good answers.

[Bobalu]

The trick is going to be getting Rubio above Cruz before Monday.

I think it will be Trump, Cruz, Rubio

Trump winning by at least 4 points IMO.

Fox will proclaim Rubio the winner for a nice 3rd place finish.

Trump really needs to do a Macey's on FOX as punishment and a lesson to the other MSM outfits.

If FOX persists in annoying him he should buy OAN and battle FOX for ratings.... he could strip a lot off of their 1 billion/year profits.

[Bobalu]

Trump will do just fine without you.

He won't have to! I'm all in for Trump :-)

I think Huckabee and Santorum being with him at the Veterans rally probably gets him an extra point in Iowa :-)

We will see on Monday.

[hawaiianninja]

I hope Cruz wins the toss since I think that he will be a great president someday and that being Trump's VP is his only chance of ever rising to that station.

I'm with you on that, Bobalu. I think Trump and Cruz would make an incredible team, given each of their strengths. While it makes sense for Trump to garner disenfranchised dems, I never thought of the "swaying democrat voter" angle regarding VP choice, though. Very perceptive!

[srmorton]

Trump would be forced to select Cruz as VP.

I don't see how Trump could select Cruz unless his eligibility is settled prior to his selection. In order to be VP, one must be eligible to step in to the presidency. I personally think he is eligible, but what I think does not matter. The Dems would make a big deal of it.

[Caipirabob]

I’m hoping amnesty traitor Rubio goes down like the Bismarck. I can’t imagine an establishment puke like that gets any kudos on FR.

[Guenevere]

TTTT

[JustaCowgirl]

There will be insults for Trump, his wife, kids and even grand kids.

...and lots of insults for his supporters.

[JustaCowgirl]

I don't see how Trump could select Cruz unless his eligibility is settled prior to his selection. In order to be VP, one must be eligible to step in to the presidency. I personally think he is eligible, but what I think does not matter. The Dems would make a big deal of it.

I think Trump's concern that the Dems would hammer Cruz on eligibility is real, and it would keep him from selecting Cruz as his VP. Doesn't matter whether you and I think he qualifies or not (and I think he does, too).

[SamAdams76]

Thousands of people lined up last night for a Trump event that could only hold 700 people. Do people still think they are going to stay home Monday night because it’s too much trouble?

[MayflowerMadam]

“I think Trump and Cruz would make an incredible team, given each of their strengths.”

Very true. But it’s a moot point unless Cruz absolutely, positively gets his eligibility cleared up ASAP. Even if the appropriate people would certify his eligibility, if he were on a ticket the Dems would fight it tooth and nail taking it to higher levels. The time and effort spent in courthouse brawls would paralyze Trump’s presidency starting Day One. Even if Trump wanted him, he won’t put up with that inefficiency and nonsense.

[USS Alaska]

I'm betting Trump has more tricks up his sleeve, endorsements or something.

I don't know about tricks, but Trump has SEVEN live events in IOWA from Saturday through Monday prior to the Hawkeye-Kawki at 7:00 PM.

If thousands of people wait for 3-9 hours in the cold, to get into a one hour speech, why would they not get into their warm car, drive to a known site, go inside, sit in the warm room, listen to some local neighbor pontificate for 20 minutes, cast a secret ballot {the pubbies ballots are secret} and go home.

Why is this Hawkeye-Kawki supposed to be so hard to do? I've been a poll watcher since 2000 and I go to the polling place before it opens at 8:00 AM and stay until the final envelopes are sealed and picked up at around 10:00 PM. That is being in a room with all demonRATs that hate my guts for being there so they can't openly and easily cheat. But with my little friends I know I'm as safe as can be. It is still a long day.

[USS Alaska]

Opps, 7:00 AM.

[Iowa David]

“I tell you what, Monday night is going to be very interesting. My bet is that Trump pulls an immediately convincing victory. But it will not get these Cruz supporters to back off until it actually happens nationally, and it will happen big. I don't pretend for a second that they will take it well. There will be insults for Trump, his wife, kids and even grand kids.”

Why do you assume even if this does happen, that Trump wins big, that Cruz supporters would act like Trump followers do?

[Theophilus]

538 has a great story: The High School Football Coach Who Never Punts