Posted on 11/20/2015 7:07:02 AM PST by Isara
In the Republican primary race, the newest NBC News/SurveyMonkey online poll shows Donald Trump has the frontrunner spot to himself, with 28% support among Republican and independent voters who lean Republican. Support for Ben Carson, who was tied with Trump in last month's online poll, has fallen off by 8 points and the former neurosurgeon is now tied with Ted Cruz at 18%. Trailing not too far behind is Marco Rubio, at 11%. The next tier of candidates has a lot of catching up to do, with Jeb Bush at 4% and Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina each with 3%.
During the volatile primary season, the attention that is gained from being the lead candidate in the polls can be a mixed blessing. The media tends to shift its focus to those candidates leading the race - and that spotlight can seem especially harsh to those who are newer to the political scene. At the same time, rival candidates are quick to target any apparent or imagined flaw of those in the lead. This is what happened to Ben Carson during the last two weeks, as he came under scrutiny for biographical details in his memoir and criticism for his lack of foreign policy expertise.
Carson and the other Republican candidates still have more than two months before the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary to gain traction. Looking at a number of subgroups may offer some clues as to how the early contests could go. The NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll was conducted nationwide of 5,775 adults, including 2,440 Republican and Republican-leaning voters, which allows for us to look at key voting blocs.
Ben Carson is still the preferred candidate of 25% of white evangelicals, but Donald Trump (23%) and Ted Cruz (22%) have clearly eaten away at what used to be the main pillar of Carson support. Among those who identify as very conservative, Ted Cruz now has the highest level of support, with 40%, overtaking both Carson (15%) and Trump (28%).
Carson has also seen his backing erode among both men and women, and their vote preferences are now being diverted to other candidates.
Among those with college degrees or more, the Republican race is utterly divided, with Trump, Carson, Cruz and Rubio getting nearly equal levels of support. Trump has regained his lead among leaned Republican voters with high school degrees or less. And Ted Cruz has made gains among all these groups in the last month.
Stephanie Psyllos, Hannah Hartig, and Josh Clinton contributed reporting.
The NBC News/SurveyMonkey online poll was conducted from November 15-17, 2015 among a national sample of 5,755 adults aged 18 and over and including a sample of 2,440 Republican voters and independent voters who lean Republican. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Overall results have an error estimate of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points and the error estimate for the leaned Republican voters is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. A full description of our methodology and the poll can be found here.
The poll was produced by the Data Analytics Lab of NBC News in conjunction with Penn's Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies with data collection and tabulation conducted by SurveyMonkey.
If this poll is to be taken seriously, it would confirm my most optimistic dream scenario, with Cruz surging at the end.
That’s why I don’t trust it, been a long time since things have gone the way I want.
My feelings are still conflicted on Trump versus Cruz. Cruz is far and away ‘the Man’. But we may need an alpha bull like Trump to clear out the deadwood, so my head tells me it should be Trump/Cruz so we get Ted for 16 years.
Polling accuracy is so variable depending on methodology that it’s hard to trust any of them. And in a primary election results especially depend on the passion and commitment level of each candidate’s voters. We’ll have to wait and see whether Trump can translate these polling numbers into actual votes, but the only other candidate eliciting real excitement is Cruz.
There have been many Data-Dump-type posts showing Trump strong on all these issues. I dont comment point-by-point on those either.
I dont comment on Data-Dump-type posts except to point out thats what they are.
(apostrophes left out on purpose)
GO TRUMP!
“Chris Wallace just named his 3 faves on Fox....
(1)Bush
(2)Graham
(3)Rubio”
You have to be joking. That would confirm our worst fears about the RINO drift of Fox. Sad, sad, sad. Graham shouldn’t even be an afterthought.
It’s “personal” in that Fox is “The Jeb Bush Channel” and by God they are going to push that jabbering idiot all the way to “Super Tuesday” no matter what it takes.
It would be prayers answered if he wins.
He will still be posting this BS chart and talking about Cruz surging when Trump gets the nomination. LOL!
Look we all like Ted but he’s never gotten much traction this election cycle and for him to surge to pass Trump is a wild dream.
Fox likes the big government establishment...Trump is too unpredictable for them and he also has his own ratings. Fox likes to control/influence, not be controlled and Trump controls them and the left media alike when it comes to Trump subjects.
“Please compare the titles. They are not exactly the same”
Donald Trump Retakes Lead in GOP Race; Ted Cruz Makes Gains: Poll
Donald Trump Retakes Lead in GOP Race; Ted Cruz Makes Gains: Poll (tied for 2nd place)
One of us is blind or something else.
Damn the facts, full speed ahead!
Yes he is catching fire!
Your hero is the lying SOB. You still can't explain why he won't let the illegals right back in to be LEGAL future Democrats when he and those around him have said (repeatedly) that is exactly what he is going to do.
I want to post a chart showing all of the awesome things Trump has supported instead of things he really may or may not have said years ago.
Online polls are notorious for inaccuracy.
When will trump announce Cruz for VP? I plan vote for cruz and I’m worried splitting the cruz/trump vote will give it to Carson...
Cruz at 18. Love it.
Keep the momentum, and then let’s have some votes.
No, it's not.
Once you ignore Senator Cruz's support for an H-1B visa increase, his support for the ridiculously-named "Freedom" Act, his 2014 support for Syrian refugee acceptance and his initial vote for Obama's TPA, the chart is 100% accurate.
Poll: Trump Retakes Lead in GOP Race; Cruz Makes Gains
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3362864/posts
This is my title:
Donald Trump Retakes Lead in GOP Race; Ted Cruz Makes Gains: Poll (tied for 2nd place)
This is original title:
Donald Trump Retakes Lead in GOP Race; Ted Cruz Makes Gains: Poll
Carson supports a ‘no fly zone’ in syria just like hitlery and yeb. So they’d be willing to start WW3 with russia over a frickin country we have no interest - other than seeing all its terrorists destroyed. SHould be automatic disqualifier - why he still has > 5% is a mystery to me.
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