Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Forget the debate: Two simple reasons a Republican will likely win in 2016
Reuters ^ | October 14, 2015 | Clifford Young and Julia Clark

Posted on 10/14/2015 9:26:55 AM PDT by wright2bear

Elections are not mysterious events subject to the whimsy of unpredictable candidates and voters. They’re actually highly predictable, with a set of variables that influence outcomes in familiar ways.

Because of that, we can say, with reasonable confidence, that a Republican will be moving into the White House in 2017.

(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.reuters.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016election; election; gop2016election; malarkey; poll; presidentromney; unexpected
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-6061-79 next last
Interesting take, especially from Reuters. Thoughts? My first Posting, so help me if I did it incorrectly.
1 posted on 10/14/2015 9:26:55 AM PDT by wright2bear
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: wright2bear

Thanks for posting. What took you so long?


2 posted on 10/14/2015 9:28:39 AM PDT by ken5050 (Jim DeMint for Speaker)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wright2bear

Dems are good for at least 4-5% fraud vote.


3 posted on 10/14/2015 9:29:49 AM PDT by petercooper (And I was born in the back seat of a Greyhound bus... Rollin' down Highway 41.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wright2bear

They forgot to take into account the felons, illegal aliens, muslims, and the dead who will all be voting, in most cases multiple times.


4 posted on 10/14/2015 9:29:53 AM PDT by tgusa (gun control: hitting your target.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wright2bear

A bit of static analysis based upon how things were before Obama foisted eight years of CHANGE on us.

Dems now solidly control 47% of the vote as Mitt Romney rightly observed. Student Loan Forgiveness will easily get them the rest.


5 posted on 10/14/2015 9:30:34 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wright2bear

My only warning about this is by every objective rational standard Obama should of been slaughter at the Polls in 2012.

We have tipped over into new territory in US Politics. Voters feelings now play a far larger role in elections then reason

Yes based on history the Republicans should win in 2016. Based on history they should of won in 2012 also.


6 posted on 10/14/2015 9:32:31 AM PDT by MNJohnnie ("Tyranny like Hell, is not easily conquered")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wright2bear

Disagree with the article. This election cannot be predicted on those models. It is totally unique and something that we haven’t ever seen before.


7 posted on 10/14/2015 9:32:43 AM PDT by Rex Anderson
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wright2bear

I agree, their reasoning was interesting. I don’t think combining the results of elections in so many countries makes for a stable model, though.

A member since 2004 and this is your first post? Kudos on that.


8 posted on 10/14/2015 9:33:00 AM PDT by brothers4thID ("We've had way too many Republicans whose #1 virtue is "I get along great with Democrats".")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

Never been one to post much on the internet. Always kept a low profile. Faithful to FR since 2004. read daily...or shall I say hourly. I accidently locked my account out a few years back, and finally Jim worked his magic..so here I am.


9 posted on 10/14/2015 9:34:21 AM PDT by wright2bear
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: wright2bear

Two simple reasons

Hillary

Clinton


10 posted on 10/14/2015 9:34:41 AM PDT by MeshugeMikey ("Never, Never, Never, Give Up," Winston Churchill ><>)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: petercooper

After all, they don’t want IDs to prove that a person can vote. So they must be protecting people who are committing voter fraud.

And why would they protect law breakers? Because Democrats benefit from cheaters and law breakers.


11 posted on 10/14/2015 9:34:50 AM PDT by dhs12345
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: wright2bear

I don’t know about this. Ole Bernie is offering a lot of free $h!t.


12 posted on 10/14/2015 9:37:02 AM PDT by umgud (v)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wright2bear
Interesting take, especially from Reuters. Thoughts?

Their "spinalysis" is twenty some years out of date. Clinton's election in 92' marked a whole new role for media in Presidential politics.

It's not even that they are engaged in advocacy for their favorite candidate; they're engaged in marketing their favorite candidate.

13 posted on 10/14/2015 9:37:10 AM PDT by papertyger
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wright2bear

Three reasons, actually.

1. The Purpose of the Democrat Party is to elect thieves to office so that they have access to the public treasuries in order to loot them.

2. The public treasuries are about empty.

3. Republicans will have to be elected so they can put money back into the public treasuries.

Then, the Democrats will be back.

They’re like locusts.


14 posted on 10/14/2015 9:37:24 AM PDT by blueunicorn6 ("A crack shot and a good dancer")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wright2bear
Remember the Poly Sci guys who had the model that said Romney would win in 2012? And the fact that until Obama, NO president had ever been reelected with the "wrong direction" question headed the wrong way or the economy with x % of unemployment?

There were a dozen "models" and predictors that said Obama should have lost---but none of them factored in Mittens and his inept, unwilling-to-fight campaign.

15 posted on 10/14/2015 9:37:51 AM PDT by LS (YSess"Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MNJohnnie

This is indeed new territory in American politics. Never before have elections been so...managed. It’s all scripted and the voters are just playing a part, and that is the part of background scenery.

Voters no longer vote based on reason because we have become an irrational country.


16 posted on 10/14/2015 9:39:51 AM PDT by henkster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: wright2bear

I’ve said all along that I think it probable that the Republican nominee will “win” the election in 2016, because Obama Democrat fatigue among the voters is so huge.

Of course, weighted against that is the fact that one should never underestimate the ability of Republicans to pull defeat from the jaws of victory.

Having said all that, I still don’t think that anyone running in the GOP contest really understands what is needed to turn this country around, or is fully committed to actually doing it.


17 posted on 10/14/2015 9:40:12 AM PDT by EternalVigilance
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wright2bear

Well, regardless of WHY a Republican wins in 2016, the important thing is that one wins. Our country simply cannot tolerate or survive another clueless dem (dim) Prez.


18 posted on 10/14/2015 9:41:11 AM PDT by Boomer (Politically Incorrect and proud of it. Liberalism and Islam Share a Mental Disease of Corruption.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MNJohnnie

This is my thought. We should have won 2012 (I believe we did), but when a precinct get 104% vote for Obama, you just can’t defeat theft.

I agree with the other poster, 47% will vote dem, free college tuition for illegals and other handouts will swing the other 4%.


19 posted on 10/14/2015 9:41:54 AM PDT by wright2bear
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: LS

“There were a dozen “models” and predictors that said Obama should have lost-—but none of them factored in Mittens and his inept, unwilling-to-fight campaign. “

I am trying to think of ANY type of model that was historically accurate : )


20 posted on 10/14/2015 9:43:23 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (My Batting Average( 1,000) (GOPe is that easy to read))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-6061-79 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson