Thanks for posting. What took you so long?
Dems are good for at least 4-5% fraud vote.
They forgot to take into account the felons, illegal aliens, muslims, and the dead who will all be voting, in most cases multiple times.
A bit of static analysis based upon how things were before Obama foisted eight years of CHANGE on us.
Dems now solidly control 47% of the vote as Mitt Romney rightly observed. Student Loan Forgiveness will easily get them the rest.
My only warning about this is by every objective rational standard Obama should of been slaughter at the Polls in 2012.
We have tipped over into new territory in US Politics. Voters feelings now play a far larger role in elections then reason
Yes based on history the Republicans should win in 2016. Based on history they should of won in 2012 also.
Disagree with the article. This election cannot be predicted on those models. It is totally unique and something that we haven’t ever seen before.
I agree, their reasoning was interesting. I don’t think combining the results of elections in so many countries makes for a stable model, though.
A member since 2004 and this is your first post? Kudos on that.
Two simple reasons
Hillary
Clinton
I don’t know about this. Ole Bernie is offering a lot of free $h!t.
Their "spinalysis" is twenty some years out of date. Clinton's election in 92' marked a whole new role for media in Presidential politics.
It's not even that they are engaged in advocacy for their favorite candidate; they're engaged in marketing their favorite candidate.
Three reasons, actually.
1. The Purpose of the Democrat Party is to elect thieves to office so that they have access to the public treasuries in order to loot them.
2. The public treasuries are about empty.
3. Republicans will have to be elected so they can put money back into the public treasuries.
Then, the Democrats will be back.
They’re like locusts.
There were a dozen "models" and predictors that said Obama should have lost---but none of them factored in Mittens and his inept, unwilling-to-fight campaign.
I’ve said all along that I think it probable that the Republican nominee will “win” the election in 2016, because Obama Democrat fatigue among the voters is so huge.
Of course, weighted against that is the fact that one should never underestimate the ability of Republicans to pull defeat from the jaws of victory.
Having said all that, I still don’t think that anyone running in the GOP contest really understands what is needed to turn this country around, or is fully committed to actually doing it.
Well, regardless of WHY a Republican wins in 2016, the important thing is that one wins. Our country simply cannot tolerate or survive another clueless dem (dim) Prez.
I first learned about this during the 04 election, they make it very technical in this article but it’s really not that tough. Here’s the easy understanding:
By and large the country is divided in 3rds: there’s the conservative 3rd, the liberal 3rd, and everybody else (aka the Mushy Middle).
The Mushy Middle are the people that really decide election.
TMM likes incumbents, but they don’t like the allies of incumbents.
So in 2004 The Mushy Middle theory said Bush would win re-election, the Dems would win seats in 06, the White House in 08, retain the White House in 12. And also that the GOP would gain seats in 10 and 14, and win the White House in 16, and retain in 20. While of course the Dems gain seats in 18 and 22 and get the White House back in 24.
The theory does a good job of explaining the vast majority of national elections since the Civil War. And even the exceptions really make sense. The GOP gained seats in 2002 because the Dems tried to turn it into 2000 redux and TMM said “no we really did mean to elect Bush”, similar to 98. Bush 1 won the presidency basically by running as an incumbent (”4 more years” was the cry) banking on Reagan’s popularity, 4 years later TMM said “you ain’t him” and out he went. Carter was such a train wreck the power of incumbency didn’t help. And that’s pretty much all the exceptions.
It’s kind of depressing actually how predictable things are.
It will be a miracle (a good one) if we win in 2016. We haven’t really won a decent win since 1988. 2000 and 2004 were barely wins (yes I know they count), but we have not had a hit it out of the park presidential win in decades.
Interesting analysis, but not sure it can overcome human nature. It appears from simple observation that the democrats have a solid lock on (my guesstimate) almost 50% of the electorate based on demographic trends and the number of people reliant on a welfare state. Another valid observation is the number of people who believe the country is headed in the wrong direction - that number seems to poll around 50%.
The tie breaker will be human nature - who takes the time to vote? The democrats “get out the vote” initiative has been very successful with their least educated voters - they have been and likely will continue to be solid numbers. I also believe the voter fraud problem is real and in races decided by a few percentage points in an electoral college system this can make the difference in a swing state. The GOP has failed to truly differentiate themselves from the DNC leading to a lack of motivation for voters that agree with their stated intentions, but recognize that they lie to get elected (case in point - the present congress). Look at how many here on FR say they won’t vote for another dud and most of us are political junkies - many of my neighbors who don’t follow politics, but trend conservative have said the same thing.
If the GOP nominates another dud we will lose. The rats have an obvious electoral advantage in numbers now that did not exists decades ago. They have an obvious electoral advantage with the big cities that allows them to win entire states with a turn-out in the major cities. The numbers are so close in so many states that those who believe they might buy the election with student loan forgiveness may be right.
We need a charismatic champion of conservative ideas that can motivate the middle and the right. Not an easy task. If we don’t find that the odds seemed stacked against us.
AWESOME article. Very encouraging. Thanks for posting.
Don't give up the fight though! Going to be long slog and they'll still pull out all the stops, do 4-5% voter fraud, have total MSM backing, dig as much dirt as they can, do negative attack ads right up to the day of the election and in general do 'the end justifies the means' stuff.
As Yogi (RIP) used to say, "It ain't over till' it's over."
The two stat lists in the article were reassuring.
Still think Trump is our only hope to get to 270. We'll see. .
Ever notice how in the last 8 to 12 months we have seen no polling on Obama? Contrast that to the last two years of Bush where the corrupt MSM published near daily reports of how low Bush's numbers were.
My guess is that Obama's approval numbers are totally in the tank and the corrupt MSM really don't want people to know that.