Posted on 10/14/2015 9:26:55 AM PDT by wright2bear
Elections are not mysterious events subject to the whimsy of unpredictable candidates and voters. They’re actually highly predictable, with a set of variables that influence outcomes in familiar ways.
Because of that, we can say, with reasonable confidence, that a Republican will be moving into the White House in 2017.
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.reuters.com ...
In 2012, not one that I know of.
I would point out the possibility that a strong alternative vision can defeat that “gimme” mindset. The proper candidate in 2012 would of beat Obama. Romney lost the election more then anything. Romney did not give the voters anything to vote FOR.
I first learned about this during the 04 election, they make it very technical in this article but it’s really not that tough. Here’s the easy understanding:
By and large the country is divided in 3rds: there’s the conservative 3rd, the liberal 3rd, and everybody else (aka the Mushy Middle).
The Mushy Middle are the people that really decide election.
TMM likes incumbents, but they don’t like the allies of incumbents.
So in 2004 The Mushy Middle theory said Bush would win re-election, the Dems would win seats in 06, the White House in 08, retain the White House in 12. And also that the GOP would gain seats in 10 and 14, and win the White House in 16, and retain in 20. While of course the Dems gain seats in 18 and 22 and get the White House back in 24.
The theory does a good job of explaining the vast majority of national elections since the Civil War. And even the exceptions really make sense. The GOP gained seats in 2002 because the Dems tried to turn it into 2000 redux and TMM said “no we really did mean to elect Bush”, similar to 98. Bush 1 won the presidency basically by running as an incumbent (”4 more years” was the cry) banking on Reagan’s popularity, 4 years later TMM said “you ain’t him” and out he went. Carter was such a train wreck the power of incumbency didn’t help. And that’s pretty much all the exceptions.
It’s kind of depressing actually how predictable things are.
Oh, and one other thought about “managed” elections. I don’t think it makes a difference if a Republican enters the White House in 2017. Even if it’s Trump or Cruz. The government as an entity has grown so large, so pervasive and so intrusive that it no longer recognizes any constraints upon its power over the people and is answerable to no one. Not Congress, not even the President.
It simply does what it’s masters on K street tell it to do; that’s where the regulations and statutes are actually written. Or quite often “translated,” as many of those K Street masters have strings going back to Beijing and Riyadh.
Outside of Trump and Cruz, I do not believe any candidate really wants to change that. And I’m not sure Trump or Cruz could, since they will be alone.
Why would liberals worry enough to steal the election? Demonrat, Repugnant. What’s the difference? They lost Congress the last time, but kept it at the same time.
Nor do I think, “IF” for some reason we elected someone that knew what it would take to turn the country around; the People of this country could not stomach the pain of turning a ship around.
Don’t get me wrong, I try to stay as optimistic as possible, but I’ve seen more moral decline in this country in the last 4 months, than my previous 4 decades combined.
It will be a miracle (a good one) if we win in 2016. We haven’t really won a decent win since 1988. 2000 and 2004 were barely wins (yes I know they count), but we have not had a hit it out of the park presidential win in decades.
Just a ‘fundamental transformation’ because we HAVE reached the tipping point.
Mildly surprised when listening to CSpan dems praise socialism, now.
Could the 2016 Presidential election cause. the voter fraud laws to be enforced for a change ?
It will take a tidal-wave election, in the mode of 1980, to blow up the DC Political/Media/Business machine but it can be done. That is why the "outsiders" candidates like Trump/Carson/Cruz are doing so well. People are looking around and saying "this is not the country I want for my kids".
The people have one last shot at fixing this. If they do not then, yesm they will indicate that they are willing to be serfs to the Political Machine as long as they can feel good about themselves
Interesting analysis, but not sure it can overcome human nature. It appears from simple observation that the democrats have a solid lock on (my guesstimate) almost 50% of the electorate based on demographic trends and the number of people reliant on a welfare state. Another valid observation is the number of people who believe the country is headed in the wrong direction - that number seems to poll around 50%.
The tie breaker will be human nature - who takes the time to vote? The democrats “get out the vote” initiative has been very successful with their least educated voters - they have been and likely will continue to be solid numbers. I also believe the voter fraud problem is real and in races decided by a few percentage points in an electoral college system this can make the difference in a swing state. The GOP has failed to truly differentiate themselves from the DNC leading to a lack of motivation for voters that agree with their stated intentions, but recognize that they lie to get elected (case in point - the present congress). Look at how many here on FR say they won’t vote for another dud and most of us are political junkies - many of my neighbors who don’t follow politics, but trend conservative have said the same thing.
If the GOP nominates another dud we will lose. The rats have an obvious electoral advantage in numbers now that did not exists decades ago. They have an obvious electoral advantage with the big cities that allows them to win entire states with a turn-out in the major cities. The numbers are so close in so many states that those who believe they might buy the election with student loan forgiveness may be right.
We need a charismatic champion of conservative ideas that can motivate the middle and the right. Not an easy task. If we don’t find that the odds seemed stacked against us.
Only if one of our law and order candidates got in there. Dems don’t follow the law, on anything.
No one would be happier about being proven wrong than I.
I will fight to the last bloody ditch. I will not submit.
” People are looking around and saying “this is not the country I want for my kids”.
I’d rather fight now with every fiber of my being, than to look at my children in the eyes, and realize the horrors they will face in a short time, If we don’t stand.
It happened in 3 cities in 3 swing states with a high number of electoral votes. 3 precincts. That's all it takes to steal a presidential election.
AWESOME article. Very encouraging. Thanks for posting.
I totally understand.
Don't give up the fight though! Going to be long slog and they'll still pull out all the stops, do 4-5% voter fraud, have total MSM backing, dig as much dirt as they can, do negative attack ads right up to the day of the election and in general do 'the end justifies the means' stuff.
As Yogi (RIP) used to say, "It ain't over till' it's over."
The two stat lists in the article were reassuring.
Still think Trump is our only hope to get to 270. We'll see. .
Ever notice how in the last 8 to 12 months we have seen no polling on Obama? Contrast that to the last two years of Bush where the corrupt MSM published near daily reports of how low Bush's numbers were.
My guess is that Obama's approval numbers are totally in the tank and the corrupt MSM really don't want people to know that.
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