Why Donald Trump Won’t Fold: Polls and People Speak

New York Times ^ | August 22, 2015 | MICHAEL BARBARO, NATE COHN and JEREMY W. PETERS

[NYer]

In the command centers of Republican presidential campaigns, aides have drawn comfort from the belief that Donald J. Trump’s dominance in the polls is a political summer fling, like Herman Cain in 2011 — an unsustainable boomlet dependent on megawatt celebrity, narrow appeal and unreliable surveys of Americans with a spotty record of actually voting in primaries.

A growing body of evidence suggests that may be wishful thinking.

A review of public polling, extensive interviews with a host of his supporters in two states and a new private survey that tracks voting records all point to the conclusion that Mr. Trump has built a broad, demographically and ideologically diverse coalition, constructed around personality, not substance, that bridges demographic and political divides. In doing so, he has effectively insulated himself from the consequences of startling statements that might instantly doom rival candidates.

In poll after poll of Republicans, Mr. Trump leads among women, despite having used terms like “fat pigs” and “disgusting animals” to denigrate some of them. He leads among evangelical Christians, despite saying he had never had a reason to ask God for forgiveness. He leads among moderates and college-educated voters, despite a populist and anti-immigrant message thought to resonate most with conservatives and less-affluent voters. He leads among the most frequent, likely voters, even though his appeal is greatest among those with little history of voting.

[MUDDOG]

he has effectively insulated himself from the consequences of startling statements that might instantly doom rival candidates.

More than that.

It's precisely the "startling statements" (to the NYT; truth to everyone else) that cause people to support him.

[DoughtyOne]

I agree. I will say that I don’t use those terms with women. I would rather allow a woman to win a fight that I know I can’t win.

Until you’ve been slugged, or had a woman slug a friend your yours, you don’t really quite understand what I’m saying.

Yes, you can deck the broad, but what’s the win going to be like? Does your cause advance or suffer?

Some women play this routine to their advantage, and there’s not much you can do about it.

[dschapin]

Lol, I cannot believe how many Trump supporters are unwilling to actually look at their candidates past statements and actions. Anyone who does point out his liberal history is immediately labeled a troll regardless of their posting history on FR. For your information, I am not a troll, I am a conservative who actually wants us to support a conservative rather than simply vote for the biggest loudmouth who is not and has never been a conservative.

[knarf]

The politically (in) correct element is probably the BIGGEST draw

FR almost seems like we've been discovered, agreed with ... and now even WE don't need ourselves anymore !

[Kenny]

Easy for me as well. They all get up every 4 years, play uber-conservative for the primaries then move left for the general and screw us again.

No thanks, Trump is the only one without that history that I think has a real chance to win.

[vette6387]

“Cruz has fought for us and as a result is not liked in the Senate. So, why should we trust Trump who has been buddy buddy with the Clintons and all of the Establishment and not trust Cruz who has virtually always been our champion?”

Cruz is my first choice. That said, I doubt he has a real chance at the nomination because he will have to compromise his principles to get enough money to be competitive. I wanted anyone but Arnold the Awful to be our governor here in California too, but you can see how that turned out.

[Homer_J_Simpson]

Here's why Donald Trump won't win the Republican presidential nomination

[DannyTN]

Why Trump is a conservative

1. Pro life since at least 2011, wanted to ban partial birth abortion as far back as 2000.
2. Says no funds for Planned Parenthood, while they do abortions.
3. Pro Traditional marriage. "Gay rights is not my thing."
4. Pro capital punishment "Capital punishment isn't uncivilized; murderers living is"
5. Hold Judges accountable
6. Opposes "Common core is a disaster" Teach citizenship, quit "dumbing down".
7. Anti education unions (2000)
8. For school choice
9. "Climate Change is a hoax"
10. "No Cap-and-Tax"
11. For drilling our own.
12. On Environment "Good development enhances the environment"
13. Stressed the importance of a strong family & culture of life (2015)
14. Supports Israel
15. Opposes Iran deal and letting Iran obtain the bomb.
16. Wants to crush ISIS quickly.
17. Wants a military so strong no one will challenge us.
18. Against unbalanced trade deals that kill American jobs.
19. Against warrant-less government surveillance of citizens.
20. Is against having a high national debt. Warns that $24T is a point of no return.
21. Againt gun control
22. For assault weapon ban but says the AR-15 shouldn't be considered an assault weapon.
23. Wants to repeal Obamacare and replace it with market driven polices and increased competition among insurance companies.
24. Wants to increase military spending.
25. Will close the border to illegals
26. Will send the criminals and sponges back.
27. Will deport all illegals but will let the hard working ones go through the legal process to come back.
28. Against Anchor babies
29. Knows unemployment is much higher than official stats.
30. Will bring jobs back through better trade negotiation.
31. Attended military academy and Wharton Business School.
32. Stood up for Birthers and challenged Obama on his fraud.
33. Believes USA is "the greatest force for freedom the world has ever known"
34. Wants to honor commitments on Social Security and Medicare, which we can afford to do if he gets the economy going full steam.
35. Wants to reduce the fraud in disability and other programs.
36. Against marriage penalties in tax code.
37. Wants to reduce income taxes and eliminate corporate tax.
38. Wants to rebuild our infrastructure.
39. Wants to apply welfare-to-work to 76 other welfare programs (2011)
40. Doesn't have time for political correctness.
41. Not afraid to call out either party or both when they are wrong.
42. Not a puppet to campaign donors.
43. Against the War on Christmas. "I go out of my way to use the word Christmas"

Source for most of the above and the image below...OnTheIssues.com

[alloysteel]

A challenge has been thrown down to The Donald, and with his bulldog tenacity, he is responding, in grand manner.

Does The Donald have a reservoir of good will and a whole bunch of homilies all with a conservative cast? No, but he is perhaps one of the most pragmatic people around, he sees an opportunity, and he gets in line to make the deal.

To The Donald, this is a huge contract negotiation, and the opportunity to engage in some much bigger contract negotiations down the road. The Donald would dearly love to get in the same room with Putin, or Xi, or the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and drum into them the sanctity of keeping the deal. Because if they do not act in good faith, The Donald will enforce the contract, until they rethink their intransigence.

Trust, but verify. REALLY verify.

And maybe, that is what we need, at this time and place in history.

[dschapin]

Thanks for the substantive reply. I question how much of his election season conversion on social issues is heartfelt but I hope that you are right and I am wrong.

[painter]

POW !!!

[Lazamataz]

22. For assault weapon ban but says the AR-15 shouldn't be considered an assault weapon.

He needs to dump this one.

A man could be 99% Conservative but I will oppose him if he embraces one little lick of gun control.

[Lazamataz]

LARGELY because he’s willing to openly say that American grannies are getting raped, sodomized, and murdered by foreigners and the other candidates would prefer to be sodomized themselves before daring to mention it.

YOINK!

[DannyTN]

What really attracted me to Trump is that in 2011 he started talking about the trade issues and the offshoring of jobs. Trump gets that and no other candidate does.

Cruz is arguably the best candidate on social issues, but he wanted to give Obama fast track authority to negotiate even more job killing so-called free trade agreements. Cruz eventually changed his mind. But his initial support indicated he doesn’t understand the economy.

Trump is good enough on the social issues. And better than any other candidate on the economy.

[VRW Conspirator]

Why Donald Trump Won’t Fold

Because he's a racist. /s

[dschapin]

Sen. Cruz has also been very strong against illegal immigration. I will give Trump credit for helping to get people thinking about crimes committed by illegals. However, remember that in 2012 Trump was criticizing Romney for being too extreme on immigration and saying that Romney was going to scare Hispanics away from the Republican Party. So, Trump seems like a bit of an opportunist to me.

[sparklite2]

I think you find most Trump supporters are also in Ted Cruz’s corner.

[dschapin]

I wasn’t happy with Cruz’s initial vote for the TPP either. I think he simply is a free trader (which is a position taken by many conservatives) though I am glad that he changed his mind when he saw that Sen. McConnell was cutting a deal with the Dems to reauthorize the corrupt export import bank.

[hoosiermama]

Just heard on Kennedy (she had a pro wrestler on) that Trump is a member of the World Wide Wrestling Hall of Fame

[DannyTN]

I don't know how old the assault weapon ban comments were. He says his sons who are hunters have educated him on second amendment rights issues. Here are some recent comments...

donald-trump-talks-gun-control-assault-weapons-gun-free-zones-self-defense>

donald-trump-fully-support-and-back-up-the-second-amendment

donald-trump-asked-by-reporter-if-he-shoots-guns-his-response-is-awesome