Posted on 08/01/2015 8:34:20 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
I consider myself more an activist than a politico. That said, I’ve worked on campaigns and have a good understanding of what makes them tick. I’ve worked on city level races, county races, federal house races, a senate and a Gubernatorial race.
Some things are always unpredictable. But others are always predictable. Inevitably, there are candidates whose fans/followers believe that through sheer will their candidate can and will win. I watched this happen with Sharon Angle in Nevada, Christine O’Donnell in Delaware and Doug Hoffman in New York. There are many, many other examples of it over just the past six years.
You have an “insurgent” candidate who captures the hearts and minds of those loyal to principle over party, but the candidate ignores the basic fundamentals of campaigning and pays for it dearly. Sure, candidates like Trump, Palin and Angle have fans who will crawl over glass to help them. When it came to Angle I was one of those fans. I know Angle personally. I knew here when she was an Assemblywoman in Nevada’s 26th AD in Northwest Reno. I knocked doors with her to push her Prop 13 ballot initiative. I then volunteered for an eventually worked for her run against Dean Heller (then Secretary of State) for Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District. And I was invited to her campaign’s special hotel suite in Vegas as it was announced that she had won the Senate primary, shocking the political realm and handing Sue Lowden a stunning defeat.
Angle then went on to suffer a huge defeat by Harry Reid. One that left her supporters with their faces in their hands, confused as to what happened and how it happened.
No doubt Reid’s political machine used some questionable tactics. No doubt there was fraud involved. But ultimately Reid’s campaign flanked Angle at every turn. It didn’t matter how dedicated and determined Angle’s team was because Reid had the money, the network, the players and the infrastructure needed to outgun Angle in every way possible.
A Presidential campaign is certainly an entirely different animal in terms of scope and scale. Running a statewide campaign is a beast in and of itself. But running 50 statewide campaigns simultaneously is a whole different kind of monster.
Take Florida, for example. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has reportedly decided to somewhat sit out the Florida primary. This move, in my view, is the right move and only logical move their team can make.
Why? Because Florida is very, VERY expensive. Florida is a massive state covering multiple expensive media markets. To give you an idea, the Romney campaign spent more than $11,000,000 on ads alone in 2012. That doesn’t include the pro-Romney Super PAC outfits. Nor does it include what Romney had to spend to have staff, offices and GOTV infrastructure in place in virtually every county in Florida.
Both Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio have run statewide campaigns in Florida. Both already have a statewide foundation to build on. They know the county chairmen/women, they know the organizers, they know who ran the show for them locally before, they know where to get the deals on GOTV infrastructure and they know who they need to be friendly with vs who they need to ignore.
Why would Scott Walker spend millions trying to compete with that when, in all honesty, he can’t win there? Walker is right to pass on Florida. It’s not that he’s going to ignore Florida voters, but he’s certainly going to keep his powder dry and save his big guns for states where he can actually win. Which, in all honesty, is about every state outside of Florida. I mean, outside of Florida, what other state is a guaranteed win for Jeb Bush?
Yeah, let me know when you figure that one out.
Getting back to Trump…
As Newt Gingrich showed us, a lead in the polls is irrelevant if you can’t build campaign infrastructure and get voters to the polls and/or caucuses. And, as Newt so painfully learned, if you’re not prepared for the carpet-bombing of attack ads that will come your way, you’re toast.
And if you think the negative ads that destroyed Gingrich were, bad, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. If I were a coms consultant for an anti-Trump Super PAC or campaign I would be licking my chops right now. Trump supported late abortion, used eminent domain for his business gain, supported universal healthcare and spread around money to the most liberal of liberal Democrat candidates.
Now on a personal level I agree with Sarah Palin’s perspective of Trump’s background and positions.
Shouts of, “But he donated to Democrats!” won’t sway Trump enthusiasts. The man built a skyscraper in New York City – of course, he had donated to Democrats. If he was building it in Salt Lake City, I’m sure he would have donated to Republicans. “But he changed his mind on positions!” Reagan had been an FDR Democrat. Should we hold that against him or be grateful he saw the light?
Well, that’s a part of the story. Yes, Trump enthusiasts won’t be swayed. But don’t underestimate the power of the old school social club known as the GOP establishment’s ability to command and control the primary/caucus game.
I’ve seen this first hand. Up close and personal. Conservatives, libertarians and “plugged in” independents tend to be aware of what’s happening year round, regardless of whether or not it’s an election year. But the older ladies wearing sparkly GOP hats and the men in suits with the fancy elephant pins on their collars don’t fully plug in until a couple months out. And when they do, they bring enormous persuasion to the process. Because those people are the party’s county chairs. Those people each bring 50 more people with them to the table. Those are the people who show up out of nowhere and dictate who the more “electable” and “next in line” candidate is. And election after election those people defeat the insurgent candidate when the rest of us think we might have finally solved the puzzle.
Now I’ll admit Donald Trump brings a certain anomaly into the mix. Trump has some extraordinary abilities that Herman Cain and Ron Paul never had. If Trump were positioned like Herman Cain was last time around and team Obama hit him with dirty accusations about his marriage, Trump would simply tell the media to pound sand. And he would back that attitude up with millions of his own dollars to re-enforce said statements.
No doubt, Trump brings a new level of fight to an ugly battle. But don’t for a second think the party bosses and their armies aren’t ready for it. Their playbook is effective and entirely predictable.
The big business, pro-Bush Super PAC are going to unleash an unholy barrage of ads on Trump that will have people who casually pay attention scared to death of Trump as a political leader. And while they initiate this scorched earth political bombing of Trump, the Bush campaign will be running ads that establish him as a “safe” former Governor who cut some taxes and knows how to be a polished leader.
While the pro-Trump groups should be defining Bush for what he really is… a big government, big business hack who will do virtually nothing to slow the massive expansion of government. A political machine that favors government over liberty. A guy who will continue the rotting of American sovereignty in favor of global order. A politician who will do nothing to secure our borders and will help the continuation of the invasion because it pads the pockets of his big corporate benefactors. The pro-Trump entities will instead be stuck in a never-ending position of defense, scrambling to convince the casual crowd that Trump isn’t evil and is looking out for their best interests.
If you think this won’t be the case then you don’t understand how the machine works. Trump can certainly redefine how certain parts of the game are played, but he can’t redefine the entire game.
Trump’s campaign and supporters need to think beyond today and fast. Right now Trump operates almost entirely in the 24 hour media cycle. It’s a strategy that is proving wildly effective in the short term. But it’s a strategy that in many ways isn’t prepared for what’s to come.
My advice to Trump’s army of supporters is simple. You need to relax on preaching to the choir. Trump is doing a fantastic job on that front. What you need to be doing is finding out who your county GOP chair is, who the establishment activists are, and you need to cordially and politely be warming up to them. Then, you need to be in the meetings, the social events and gatherings helping them all understand why Trump could work for America.
Don’t be like the Ron Paul fans. The Paul crowd ridiculed and mocked the party bosses, which ended up hurting Paul in the long term. Instead of converting minds, the Paul fans just pushed minds further away, making the party establishment resent them in every way possible.
Don’t try and hide Trump’s past political sins. Instead, embrace them and help others understand that even Reagan himself had similar sins. Trump represents a great American story. One of many failures, but one that used those failures to learn success. One that had a man in the heart of big government liberal policies (New York) who emerged a financial mega-star through hard-headed maneuvering and powerful management skill.
America is done with shiny politicians. We’re over the political lies and promises. We’re ready for a bull in a China shop and Trump can be that bull.
Unfortunately, there is still one hell of a roadblock in place and it’s called the GOP establishment. Trump is right to engage in combat with the establishment. But at some point the Trump train will need to use the establishment’s tracks. Blowing up those tracks isn’t the answer on the long term front. Because in doing so the establishment will quickly build a bypass for the Bush train.
Mark my words…
When you're billionaire, you have to pay protection money to whoever demands it or you might find yourself on the wrong end of a congressional investigation like Microsoft did for never making political contributions. Now Microsoft contributes to both parties as well.
Wow. You are a moron. If The Donald is so interested in American jobs, why doesn’t he just open a factory here and have a bunch of Americans make his shitty clothes? If making American great is his goal, he should be happy to do that at a lower profit.
Nice of you to throw out invective’s like moron.
I guess it takes one to know one?
Why would any knucklehead businessman make clothes here paying American union wages? Donald Trump is not in the business of losing money with a guarantee.
But as president, what Trump CAN do is make a level playing field for foreign trade. Which simply means China can not put any more restrictions on imports of American made products than we put put on China to export their products here.
No doubt there was some fraud involved. However, Reid’s office in Nevada will take on any problem that any Nevadan is having and FIX it. His office will call the Dept of Defense to straighten out Veteran’s back and overdue payments, they will call mortgage lenders to help get paperwork moving on re-finance. I dislike Reid’s politics but stand in admiration of his peoples problem solving for Nevada residents. Many here, very many don’t like his politics but vote for him for what he has done for them or someone they know here in the state. Heller can’t or won’t do that, Amodie won’t either. I don’t know about the southern part of the state.
Trump needs to be creating ads now and pre-buying airtime in all the early state through Super Tuesday.
And he has to go to the air FIRST in every market to put the establishment on the defensive early.
Because the juggernaut positioning to blow him out of the water has substantial firepower that should not be underestimated.
And I wouldn’t vote for either of them for president. I guess by that standard, I shouldn’t vote for Trump. And I won’t.
With the continuous process of democratizing the GOP selection process over the last few decades, by far the great majority of delegates are sworn to the candidate who wins the primary election (and caucuses). Certainly the party will control the caucuses (which is how it's done in Nevada, where the author is from), but the winner of the bulk of the primaries will carry in SWORN DELEGATES who must place their vote on the first ballot for that candidate.
It's common to have the nomination locked up long before the convention.
Yep, not only was she denied national money, they actually worked for her defeat and spent million toward that end.
Plus, especially, called in ever media favor they had.
Absolutely.
Being ahead in FLA and having all the money he needs to launch a blitzkrieg in the ad and win total command of the air, GOPe is wondering if beating Trump in FLA is worth the cost of a 3rd party run.
ESPECIALLY if he goes in with 1 and 2 showings in IA, NH, NV and SC.
Trump could kill every other GOP campaign in FLA.
If he wins there, THEIR money will dry up.
The Kochs and others will not back certain losers in the primary process.
I’ll say it again. Political contributions are protection money when you are a billionaire. A business expense that is cheaper than letting the political hacks target you for judicial extortion.
And I’ll repeat: certain donations can be understood in that context. Others seem more like a show of what one truly believes.
And you, being clairvoyant, can divine the motivations of all people.
I’m sure they have a scheme to prevent a Trump nomination through the primary process.
Actions speak louder than words.
You mean their high tech computer program that failed on election day?
In other words, 62% of his protection money has gone to Republicans.
I don't want Trump to be President. I want him to keep carpet-bombing the DC cartel and then withdraw and endorse Cruz.
Without Trump stirring the pot, the GOP-wing of the Democrat party is going to shove another Democrat Lite Bush down our throats.
If they "Goldwater" him, Conservatives will burn down the building AND the party.
He donated to dem party-building groups at critical times. That’s not paying protection. That’s working for the cause. The liberal cause. Unforgivable.
Donald “Honey Badger” Trump don’t care.
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