Posted on 07/14/2015 5:11:29 AM PDT by Kaslin
"My sole focus is to run as a Republican," Donald Trump told my Washington Examiner colleague Byron York last week, "because of the fact that I believe that this is the best way we can defeat the Democrats." He went on, "Having a two-party race gives us a much better chance of beating Hillary and bringing our country back than having a third-party candidate."
But when York asked if he would definitively rule out running as a third-party candidate, Trump said, "It's not something I'm thinking about right now." And as John Fund pointed out in National Review, it is something Trump has thought about in the past.
He made a feint at getting Ross Perot's Reform Party nomination back in 1999. And while Trump recently called Clinton "the worst secretary of state in the history of our nation," somehow overlooking James Buchanan's feckless stint in the Polk administration, he also contributed to her Senate campaigns and has called her "a terrific woman."
The fact is that Trump, as a national celebrity and a non-politician often at odds with both parties, has the capacity to launch an independent candidacy scoring double digits in polls, just as Perot did in 1992 and Colin Powell could have done in 1995.
That should scare not only Republicans but also Democrats. History tells us that third-party candidacies have reshuffled the political desk and disrupted seemingly stable political alignments in unanticipated ways.
Consider the Populist movement of the 1890s that came during a 25-year period when partisan competition was as close as today and divided government as much the norm, though with Republicans usually holding the presidency and Democrats usually with congressional majorities.
The Populists supported inflationary silver currency and aid to farmers, and the 1892 Populist nominee carried most electoral votes in the plains and mountain states (all admitted to the Union by Republicans).
In 1896 Democrats nominated the pro-silver, pro-farmer William Jennings Bryan, but in reaction the Northeast and industrial Midwest swung to the pro-gold standard Republican William McKinley. Republicans won seven of the nine next presidential elections.
Half a century later, in 1948, Strom Thurmond's States' Rights Democratic candidacy destabilized the national Democratic Party's majority coalition. Thurmond's 39 electoral votes didn't defeat Harry Truman, but Thurmond helped to detach the South from its traditional Democratic allegiance. Democratic nominees carried all the Confederate states 17 times before 1948. None ever has again.
George Wallace's third-party candidacy in 1968 advanced that process at the presidential level. But his 1964, 1972 and 1976 campaigns in the Democratic primaries provided a template for conservative Democrats to win congressional and state races in places that tilted Republican presidentially. That delayed Republicans' capture of majorities in the U.S. House until 1994.
Ross Perot's candidacy in 1992 came after Republicans won five of the six previous presidential elections, and after 1988 George Bush carried 40 states in 1988. But Perot's spring campaign "de-partisanized the critique of Bush," as deputy Democratic chairman Paul Tully told me at the time, in a way no Democrat, certainly not a little-known young governor of Arkansas, could have done.
But when Perot abruptly withdrew from the race, on the Wednesday of the Democratic National Convention, Bill Clinton's standing in the polls rose 25 points in one day -- surely a record that will never be beaten. Democrats won four of the next six presidential elections.
But their leftish policies, in Clinton's first two years and Barack Obama's two terms, have helped produce Republican majorities in nine of the next House elections and have resulted in the polarization of the electorate that so many pundits lament -- and which is the last thing Perot promised.
What could be the consequences of a third-party Trump candidacy? Immediate speculation is that it would cost Republicans the votes of many conservatives disgruntled with the party's officeholders and angry about immigration, trade and Common Core. That's certainly plausible.
But Trump might also siphon votes of non-college whites from Democrats in states where their support was high enough to produce Obama victories. Examples include Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. All voted 54 percent or less for Obama in 2012, and altogether they have 84 electoral votes.
The present close partisan balance and polarization will not last forever. And Donald Trump seems like just the kind of guy who could disrupt it -- in ways no one now can anticipate.
After Perot dropping out in July and later going back in again my vote went to President Bush 41. I am afraid 2016 will be a repeat of 1992 if Trump goes third party and Hillary Clinton will be the next occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave
If it takes a third party to do so, so be it. We don't win if Jeb or another chosen one gets to the WH.
I doubt few 3rd party candidates ever really intend to win.
IIRC, Perot never ran in any primaries. He was third party all the way. By contrast, George Wallace in 1968 ran in Democratic primaries before he announced his third party candidacy.
Doesnt’ sound as if the establishment is ready to unify behind Trump if he wins??
Pray America is waking
He is now saying what he knows will sell about illegal aliens but it is almost the exact opposite of what he was saying a few years ago. He was also a big proponent of Hillarycare.
If Trump decides to pull a Perot and run as an independent then there will be no question that he is just a Democrat plant.
If you like what Trump is saying, then vote for Ted Cruz, who actually means what he says.
Did you miss my comment in post# 1 where I said "While I agree with many things that Donald Trump says that's going on, I am reminded of the 1992 campaign where I also agreed with what Ross Perot said and voted for him in the primary."?
He sure was in our primary and I voted for him in the primary. Don't tell me other wise. I don't care if he was third party or not
That is why I will never vote third party. Ross Perot taught me a lesson
The Gop is Dead and there is nothing to salvage.
Bonehead, Ryan, Mitchy, Corker , Cochran, Rove, Jebster , Grahnasty, Rence P, McShame, Idiot Gov Nicki HATE the Gop base and have open contempt for it.
These crooks are the K street , WSJ and Cheap Labor crime organization and sold us out to Billionaires and Soro puppets in the WH.
Cruz sold us out for H1Visas and Crony capitalist Unfair trade scam for his Billionaire donors.
Trump popularity outed all these sleazy amoral Crooks as frauds and the serial liars
We need a real political party that supports American interests not billionaire demanding cheap labor at any costs. Trump is nit a problem he justvthrew back the curtain and outed
This insulting crime organization now in power which lets its citizen get murdered in broad day light by illegals and ignores it,
Like I said he reminds me of the 1992 election
It may happen that Trump splits the conservative vote away from Walker or Cruz, for example, leaving the door open for a Leftist Democrat.
America is on the ropes and staggering around now, after the infamies of Obama; it won’t survive another Marxist.
It can’t be helped, the squishes running the GOP made it inevitable.
Who says Jeb Bush will be the nominee? The media does and what the media says means diddly
I think there is a lot of manipulation going on to try and cause a split which would be nothing but disastrous for conservatives.
While I don’t think Trump is in on it, I do think there are plenty who think they can use the Trump flare to pull conservatives left.
What party's primary was Perot in?
The Colorado primary is next June. If Cruz is still standing, I will vote for him. Meanwhile, Trump is destroying the amnesty crowd, beating the crap out of the media, and trashing the backsabbing Republican elite. I will support that.
The way the party elite treat Trump's candidacy, while they spit in our faces by supporting Jeb, is not acceptable.
I understand the comparisons to the 1992 election.
I voted for Perot after Bush betrayed us on taxes and could not fight against a draft dodging, coked up adulterer.
That was my protest vote, along 19% of the electorate.
However, the loss in 1992 was a wake-up call to the GOP, who then gave us the Contract with America.
In 1994, we voted in the first GOP led House in 40 years.
So in 2015, it has become evident that we should have started a third party after the disaster in 2012.
In 2014 we voted in a GOP led Senate, and strengthened the
GOP led House.
And for what? Bupkis.
This is all scary talk.
If Jeb Bush is the GOP nominee in 2016, say hello to Madame Hillary as your next President. Nobody is going to vote for a Bush.
And quite frankly, after the debacle of him giving Hillary a Freedom Medal last year, it is obvious he is the designated loser for 2016.
The truth is that there is no difference between Bush and Hillary—they are two sides of the same coin, beholden to the same puppetmasters.
Nominate Jeb Bush, and I will vote for someone else, leave the line blank, or write in a name.
The Bushes have led this country down a bad road since 1990, and they squandered the great work Ronald Reagan accomplished.
Like Jeb Bush said, the Reagan revolution is dead.
A man who thinks that way has no business anywhere near the Oval Office.
It’s easy to say this over a year out from the election, but if Trump runs then the Republican Party may end up being the third party.
Trump has a lot of negatives that haven’t been focused on yet. But he deserves tremendous credit for his immigration stance. And I am happy to vent my frustration at the Republican party.
Bush v Hillary v Trump.......I vote Trump without hesitation.
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