Posted on 03/15/2015 7:00:49 AM PDT by expat_panama
Seems like there's an awful lot of doom'n'gloom out there:
(excerpt from) More Volatility Sends Market Down for a 3rd WeekThe stock market was hit hard on Friday, capping a third week of declines as investors reacted to a steep drop in oil prices and a jump in the value of the dollar.Utilities, major exporters and companies that make basic materials like steel had the biggest declines. The sell-off came at the end of a volatile week, and it sets the stage for a Federal Reserve policy meeting next week. Investors will be watching closely for clues about the central banks views on the economy and interest rates. This week has really been about investors outlooks adjusting in the face of higher interest rates later this year, said Gabriela Santos, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Funds. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 145.91 points, or 0.8 percent, to 17,749.31. The Standard & Poors 500-stock index lost 12.55 points, or 0.6 percent, to 2,053.40, and the Nasdaq lost 21.53 points, or 0.4 percent, to 4,871.76. Continue reading the main story Benchmark United States crude fell $2.21 to close at $44.84 a barrel in New York. Oil is now within 40 cents of its low for the year, and its lowest level in six years, after a drop of 10 percent this week. Brent crude, a benchmark for international oils used by many American refineries, fell $2.41 to close at $54.67 a barrel in London. Several energy stocks followed the price of oil lower... [snip] In the bond market, United States government bond prices did not move much. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was unchanged at 2.12 percent. Gold edged up 50 cents, to $1,152.40 an ounce, silver fell 2 cents, to $15.49 an ounce, and copper was flat at $2.66 a pound. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * (excerpt from) US stocks fall for third-straight week; worries about oil prices and interest rates persistThe stock market was hit hard Friday, capping a third week of declines, as investors reacted to a steep drop in oil prices and a jump in the value of the dollar.
Traders gather at a post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, March 13, 2015. U.S. stocks are opening slightly lower a day after the market notched its best performance in five weeks. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 145.91 points, or 0.8 percent, to 17,749.31. The Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 12.55 points, or 0.6 percent, to 2,053.40 and the Nasdaq composite lost 21.53 points, or 0.4 percent, to 4,871.76. Gold edged up 50 cents to $1,152.40 an ounce, silver fell two cents to $15.49 an ounce and copper was flat at $2.66 a pound. In other energy trading, wholesale gasoline fell 4.8 cents... |
(excerpt from) U.S. stocks end rocky stretch with third straight weekly loss
Consumers aren't as optimistic. Sentiment index slides in March.
U.S. stocks suffered another bout of selling on Friday and the main indexes registered losses for a third straight week.
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Then again, universal doom'n'gloom's usually a very bullish indicator. That and the fact that most of the price plunge took place before this past week when the trend turned flat...
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Utilities and "companies like steelmakers" benefit from cheap oil and strong dollars. "Major exporters" (whoever they are) -- to the extent that they use raw materials and labor from abroad also benefit from cheap oil and a strong dollar on the cost side of the income statement.
Stock valuations are stretched IMO. Very hard to find bargains with a margin of safety.
Exactly. While pundits may get paid for doom’n’gloom content the fact remains that there are many more oil consumers than producers and the falling price will benefit a hefty majority.
A lot of folks are saying that, and have been saying it seems like forever; but when I get out PE's, div-yeilds, etc. I'm really hard pressed to find a clear signal.
Same with the Swissy unpegging. For every dollar lost, there was a dollar made, and a lot of it on margin.
The quality of earnings concerns me. As is generally known, many companies are buying back shares with borrowed money. This can be a smart thing to do given that low rates make this financial engineering possible. This juices earnings since there are fewer shares outstanding after each round of buybacks. So even with a flat revenue, you can still achieve “higher earnings”. But what happens when all those easy buybacks stop because of rising interest rates?
Stand by for a ramming.
So they’re taking on debt to make their earnings look better? Yikes.
get out PE's, div-yields, etc
The quality of earnings concerns me. As is generally known, many companies are buying back shares with borrowed money
Virtually all corporations raise capital with some combination of share sales and borrowing, which is why investors also look at say, debt/equity ratios or return on equity when evaluating an investment. The point is to go past 'quality' and get into 'quantity', in order to calculation how much or how little to invest.
There's a lot of negativism around, but when folks say the metrics are bearish I still get nowhere when it comes to actually getting to see those metrics to compare w/ times past when markets later proved to be failing.
When earnings go up, and the stock price follows, executive compensation also rises. There’s a big incentive to push earnings up.
That can sound bad but most individual investors and practically all institutional investors know better. Publically traded corps have to report borrowing just like they report earnings.
Debt by itself isn't a problem, I'd be happy to buy Apple if they changed their debt to equity ratio to 99.999,999,9%, that would mean I could buy all their shares for $1,000. Over the past 40 years their market cap has doubled on average 30 times over the past four decades. At that rate in four years I could sell my shares for $7T.
What a scam.
big incentive to push earnings up.
Taking on debt could make earnings look better compared to the number of shares, but the amount of earnings wouldn't change unless taking on debt somehow made a serious improvement in corp's earning power. If it did, then that's good.
Virtually all corporations raise capital with some combination of share sales and borrowing
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True but in this case we’re not talking about raising money for capital expenditures or other business needs. It’s about taking on debt solely to buy back shares. I prefer to see real, organic growth instead. Just my view.
To your other point, fundamentals don’t seem to matter much anymore. This is a fed-driven market and that printing party seems to be coming to its inevitable end. That concerns me. IMO there is a lot of downside risk right now.
If you’re a corporate executive, a rising EPS is a good thing. No matter how you did it. Can you say bonus time? I knew you could.
Its good work if you can get it! :) The compensation committee may even up your options next year!
We can agree that there are corp execs that have perks tied to earnings increases, but let me know if you can name one exec who'd cash in if he boosted the EPS by buying back all but a couple shares while earnings fell by 90%.
In a pig's eye. Never happen.
Operating remotely from Big Easy (New Orleans) this week.
Mrs. abb and I using a few pence from investing proceeds to sightsee and sample a plate or two of the gourmet fare available here.
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