At record high, U.S. stocks look to extend breakout --Weekly Thread Feb. 16

Weekly investment & finance thread ^ | February 15, 2015 | Freeper Investors

[expat_panama]

[excerpt from Yahoo Finance]     NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are poised for more upward momentum even as uncertainty over oil prices and Greek debt negotiations keeps the market on tenterhooks, analysts say. Strong fourth-quarter U.S. company earnings and signs of an overall improving economy, alongside what appears to be the start of a bottoming in crude oil prices, have given equities support. After starting 2015 with its sharpest monthly drop in a year and a spike in volatility, the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) hit an intraday record on Friday while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) reached its highest point so far this year. As "stocks have found a footing, people aren't as afraid of the potential negative" stemming from recent instability in oil prices and Greece, said Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at Phoenix Financial Services in New York. "That's allowed stocks to start breaking out of the channel that they've been stuck in since the beginning of the year," he said. Volatility seems to abating.... {snip] ...market participants will be paying close attention to developments in Greece - which, alongside oil prices, have been at the root of the volatility seen in the market this year. Greece's new leftist government and euro zone finance ministers failed to agree this week on the next step for the country's bailout, leaving negotiations on the table for next week as they inch closer to a Feb. 28 deadline. The Greek government promised to do "whatever we can" to secure a deal with international creditors. While U.S. exposure to Greek debt is "pretty minor," uncertainty over the situation and the impact on broader markets adds to volatility, according to Charles Lieberman, chief investment officer of Advisors Capital Management LLC in New Jersey. "It's more in the nature of psychology than real substance," he said.

Also in the news: [excerpt from NASDAQ Oil Prices: Freaking Investors Out for 150 Years and Counting.. ] Whenever I read or watch financial media coverage of oil prices lately, the image that comes to mind is a bunch of kids who just ate half their weight in candy, washed it down with a gallon of Red Bull, and then run around the playground at warp speed. They both move so fast and sporadically that is almost impossible to keep up with them. Here is just a small example of headlines that have been found at major financial media outlets in just the past week: Citi: Oil Could Plunge to $20, and This Might Be 'the End of OPEC' OPEC sees oil prices exploding to $200 a barrel Oil at $55 per barrel is here to stay Gas prices may double by year's end: Analyst What is absolutely mind-boggling about these statements is that these sorts of predictions are accompanied with the dumbest thing that anyone can say about commodities: This time it's different . No it's not, and we have 150 years worth of oil price panics to prove it. [snip] Also keep in mind, these are just the change in annual price averages. So it's very likely that these big price pops and plunges are even more frequent than what this chart shows. Investing in energy takes more stomach than brains... {snip] ...However, if you had made an investment in ExxonMobil in 1980 and just held onto it, your total return -- share price appreciation plus dividends -- would look a little something like this.

--and a super big hat tip to abb for getting the Yahoo Finace link to me just in time!!

*   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *  

This is the thread where folks swap ideas on savings and investment --here's a list of popular investing links that freepers have posted here and tomorrow morning we'll go on with our--

Open invitation continues always for idea-input for the thread, this being a joint effort works well.   Keywords: financial, WallStreet, stockmarket, economy.

[grania]

I have a question. For about a year now, I've been trying to self-educate about coins and bullion as investments, but also as a hobby. I want to make purchases that are interesting and their value as a metal is clear.

Whew....it's a jungle out there. I purchased two 1oz silver bullion bars and one 1/10 oz gold bullion bar from an outfit at an excellent introductory sucker-newbies-in price. Now they call me every few months and it's like I'm living in Wolf of Wall Street. They try to sell me stuff at at least a 50% markup if it's bullion or with unknown metal content if it's great old pirate coins or whatever. They talk down to me when I asked questions based on any knowledge I might have on the topic. It's fun to keep the conversation going for a half hour or so, knowing that the phone guy isn't exploiting someone else for that time.

So here's my question. I asked the guy how much over spot 2015 1 oz silver bullion coins were selling for. His answer was "they're a bad purchase, as they're too common. Over 4 million have been purchased so far.

My question is, is he correct? Are people getting more aggressive in purchasing silver bullion? Because if that's the case, silver might be a good stock market play. I'm thinking refining.

And yes, I know where to get it just a little over spot and no postage. And I've got a discount coming for an unsolicited review I wrote.

Thanks,

"grania"

[expat_panama]

Talking to a dealer about metals trades sounds like asking a barber if I need a haircut.  For everything that's bought and sold the prices starts with and offer that's lower than the sale price, and the actual exchange price is somewhere in between.  On this site they say that some folks are offering $16.24 for "silver bullion round one ounce" and other people who have 'em are demanding $17.33. 

That's a 6.7% fee for buying and selling.  This site says the difference between the bid and offer on silver is only 0.6% --a lot less, though I'm not sure what other fees Kitco traders have to put up with.  Abb talked about buying shares in BEARX and with my Scottrade broker I can right now buy it at $2.29 and sell it at $2.16, or I can just post my own bid/offer price and wait and see.  For silver coins there are places like this one that you can buy and sell silver coins --more listed here.

You can tell I know less about metals than stocks, maybe we'll hear better info from the PM folks.

[expat_panama]

 

	Markets		Yesterday		Today
	metals		Falling back to November's bases @ $1,207.85 and $16.48		futures holding, silver upside and gold off
	stocks		Record highs, but less than a fifth of a % in falling volume		futures now trading up just barely

Big announcement parade this morning:

MBA Mortgage Index
Housing Starts
Building Permits
PPI
Core PPI
Industrial Production
Capacity Utilization
FOMC Minutes

[expat_panama]

PPI @ -0.8. Deflation’s back. Not expecting any rate hikes for a while...

[abb]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-future-price-of-oil—nobody-has-a-clue-180610324.html

The future price of oil? Nobody has a clue

[expat_panama]

Well it may be morning but as far as the investment markets go today just like yesterday, only more so.  That is, stock indexes higher by even less and in even lower volume w/ metals settling more into level trading bases.  Yesterday we had lots of econ reports, and today's 'claims-day':

Initial Claims
Continuing Claims
Philadelphia Fed
Leading Indicators
Natural Gas Inventories
Crude Inventories

Maybe this means nothing's going to happen today?

[expat_panama]

...future price of oil? Nobody has a clue...

Funny how not knowing something never stops folks from having strong opinions.

[abb]

This morning.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-prices-fall-as-u-s-crude-stockpiles-grow-1424342275?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories

Oil Prices Fall as U.S. Crude Stockpiles Grow
Shock data from American Petroleum Institute shows record level of crude stocks

By Georgi Kantchev
Feb. 19, 2015 5:37 a.m. ET

[expat_panama]

Oil Prices Fall as U.S. Crude Stockpiles Grow

Funny you should mention that; the other day I was thinking about what soaring oil inventories meant for prices and here's what I found:

It would make sense that if sellers can't peddle what they've got in stock that they'd have to lower prices, but w/ oil the past couple months we've been having soaring stockpiles and rising priices.  Looking farther back to June-Oct we see falling inventories with falling prices.

The oil market's just not all that tidy.

[abb]

Reliable contrary indicator now flashing! When Barron’s says sell, its usually time to buy.

http://online.barrons.com/articles/SB51367578116875004693704580455721639993424

Avoid Big Oil: Exxon, Chevron, Conoco and Royal Dutch
Exxon, Chevron, Conoco and Royal Dutch: There’s little upside for their shares if oil rallies.

[abb]

This clown was the worst. Or best.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Abelson

[abb]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-18/eog-quarterly-profit-declines-as-oil-crash-trumps-prolific-wells?cmpid=yhoo

Shale Giant Says U.S. Output Will Fall This Year on Drastic Cuts

[BipolarBob]

If we could export crude as well as import, oil prices/supply would probably stabilize and . . . . well we can’t have that, can we?

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

You’re talking free market. Surely you jest.

[expat_panama]

whoa— I remember Alan Abelson! I used to watch him all the time on TV and I even subscribed to Barron’s. That was a long long time ago...

[expat_panama]

If we could export crude as well as import

We do. From here:

...Petroleum product exports are on track for another banner year, with total exports climbing to a 3.7 million barrels per day (bbpd) average for 2014...   ...Overall, the U.S. remains a net importer of crude oil and refined petroleum products. But, data from the EIA show that reliance on oil from other countries has been declining over the past 8 years, from its peak in August 2006.

[BipolarBob]

We can export condensates and refined products but not crude by law.

[expat_panama]

ah.... TX! It should have raised a red flag to me the way the info on ‘exports’ never specifically mentioned ‘crude’; the data only listed ‘crude extract’, or ‘crude flavoring’.

A guy’s gotta be a flippin’ lawyer to read those labels...

[expat_panama]

	Markets		Yesterday		Today's futures
	metals		Fading another % into past bases		tanking -0.64%
	stocks		Mixed (S&P down, Nasdaq up) in falling volume		steady @ +0.03%

Today is "announcement-free", but we got entertaining headlines--

• A Stock Market Alarm Is Sounding - Anthony Mirhaydari, The Fiscal Times
• The middle class is dying, you need to get out of it Once upon a time being middle class was an achievement, today its considered a curse warns Grant Cardone, motivational speaker and author of Sell or be Sold.
• Has Greece's 'Lehman moment' finally arrived?
• 5 Reasons Why the Nasdaq is Different 15 Years After the Bubble

--and threads:

• Hyperinflation To Start in 2015: Economist Says Get Supplies : “Gold, Silver, Canned Goods...
• States don’t want illegal immigrants, but could they need them? (Here we go)
• Scott Walker Embraced by Voodoo Economists
• Marco Rubio Laughingly Accuses Obama’s Policies of Being Bad for the Nation

[abb]

Now what?!?!?!?!

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/02/20/morning-moneybeat-nasdaq-approaches-dot-com-era-record/

Nasdaq Approaches Dot-Com Era Record

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-lower-1424438264?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories

U.S. Stocks End Higher As DJIA, S&P 500 Close At New All-Time Highs

DJIA Rises To First Record Close Of The Year; Last Record Was Dec. 26

DJIA Rises 154.67 Points (0.9%) To Record 18140.44

S&P 500 Gains 12.85 (0.6%) To All-Time High Of 2110.30

Nasdaq Composite Gains 31.27 (0.6%) To 4955.97