Nate Silver's Senate Update: Democrats Draw Almost Even. Is It The Money?

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT ^ | 09/16/2014 | Nate Silver

[SeekAndFind]

When we officially launched our forecast model two weeks ago, it had Republicans with a 64 percent chance of taking over the Senate after this fall’s elections. Now Republican chances are about 55 percent instead. We’ve never quite settled on the semantics of when to call an election a “tossup.” A sports bettor or poker player would grimace and probably take a 55-45 edge. But this Senate race is pretty darned close.

What’s happened? The chart below lists the change in our forecast in each state between Sept. 3 (when our model launched) and our current (Sept. 15) update.

As you can see, there hasn’t been an across-the-board shift. Republicans’ odds have improved in several important races since the launch of our model. Democrats’ odds have improved in several others. But the two states with the largest shifts have been Colorado and North Carolina — in both cases, the movement has been in Democrats’ direction. That accounts for most of the difference in the forecast.

It might help to break the states down into several groups:

• Republican defenses (Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky). These are the three Republican-held seats where Democrats have some chance for a pickup. Democrats got good news in Kansas two weeks ago when their own candidate, Chad Taylor, ceased his campaign in the state — improving the odds for the center-left independent candidate, Greg Orman. Orman, however, is a slight underdog against the Republican incumbent Pat Roberts, and Orman isn’t certain to caucus with Democrats if he wins. Meanwhile, Democrats’ odds have declined somewhat in Georgia and Kentucky. Taken as a group then, these states have not produced much change in the overall forecast.

[Redmen4ever]

Hold all our seats (including KS)

pick-up MT, SD and WV (each one virtually conceded at this point)

NOW COMES THE HARD PART

Holding KS

Win the following states where we look to be slightly ahead: AK, AR, LA (probably going to a run-off)

THAT MAKES SIX (i.e., 51 and control of the Senate)

NOW COMES THE EASY PART because we don’t need any of the following to make it to 51.

CO, IA, MI, NC and NH

CO - purple - we always knew this was going to be a competitive situation, there are tough races for Governor AND Senator, other important down ticket races, we may be slightly behind at this point

IA - purple - this looks like a dead heat, Republican Governor looks to be re-elected in a walk, two competitive Congressional races (out of four)

MI - same as CO

NH - purple state - Democrat Governor looks to be re-elected in a walk; on the other hand, we look to win back both Congressional seats, we seem to be slightly behind at this point

NC - slightly red, we should win this one, but Thom Tillis is catching flak for Republican cuts to the state budget., we seem to be slightly behind at this point

The prognostication would seem to be +6 to 7, with the possibility of +11

The Democrats are continually readjusting their backstops. Do they pursue pick-up opportunities in GA and/or KY? Do they concede MT, SD and/or WV? Their strategy seems, at this point, be to try to keep their losses to three and be happy that an independent has messed up the computer models in Kansas.

[Chuzzlewit]

I personally don’t believe anything can save this country from going full out socialist. We’ve had 50 years of socialist propaganda in the school systems. It has created a nation of pajama boys as pictured above.

being men and being responsible men, is not something that is taught....

nanny state wins... we are going the way of Europe.

[Wayne07]

Republicans aren’t so smart.

I'd say Republicans often let stubbornness get in the way of clear thinking.

[txhurl]

I’m sticking with your analysis.

[KC_Conspirator]

So much for the lame “quietly run out the clock” strategy by the senate election campaign.

[TitansAFC]

The GOPe has no plan to win, other than to do nothing and hope that everyone will just vote for the GOP because they aren’t the Democrats. That is, right now, their only plan.

The Democrats, on the other hand, spend every week trying to pass the Lilly Ledbetter Bill, talking about Hobby Lobby to women’s groups, promising to raise the minimum wage (and putting it on the ballot in every state), and promising action on “Social Issues” to their base. They are working hard to rile-up their base and give independent voters actual REASONS to vote for them in December. They are going to fight until their last breath to keep every seat.

The GOPe has decided to make personal stories out of campaigns. Why? because they have never been able to get out of 1950s campaign mode - the mentality that what everyone wants to vote for is the guy who grew up on a farm/worked in a factory/started a business/served in the military. Let me cue you in on something: this stopped working twenty years ago. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, gives a flat-out DAMN what your personal story is. They want to know where you stand on the issues, and what your plan is. NOBODY is buying the story that the rich GOP candidate is just a misunderstood, average Joe. They are rolling their eyes, and then listening to Democrat commercials making them promises of lots and lots of stuff. NO INDEPENDENT VOTER THINKS YOU’RE MORE QUALIFIED FOR THE SENATE ANYMORE BECAUSE YOU FLIPPED BURGERS IN COLLEGE, “just like them.” This is NOT 1950, dammit, and EVERY poll shows the GOP “strategy” is failing EPICALLY.

The GOP has spent all primary season demonizing and attacking Conservative voters, the Tea Party, and favored Conservative candidates. They have never made a single, even tiny effort to mend fences this year. While Democrats are promising war on behalf of their base to address their issues, the GOP is busy whispering their “100 Days Plan” to each other - a running list of Chamber of Commerce issues sure to make their big donors salivate, without even the smallest red meat for Grassroots Conservatives to chew on. They are literally not offering ANYTHING to the largest group of base voters out there - nothing on Traditional Family Issues, nothing Pro-Life, nothing on Religious Freedom, nothing on gun issues, nothing on fighting illegal immigration, nothing on fighting vote fraud, nothing on repealing Obamacare. Our issues are totally and completely PURGED from their docket.

I’m not surprised they’re on the verge of losing the Senate in November. I actually think they’re stupid enough to believe that they just need to “stay the course” and not do or say anything controversial for the ENTIRE rest of the campaign season. What will surprise me is if they win the Senate at all.

Let me repeat: While the Democrats are promising to go down fighting on every issue their base cares about, the GOP won’t touch any of their base’s issues. The Democrats are talking about issues to independent voters, while the GOP is running cut-and-paste, 100-year-old, worn-out attack ads (and personal story ads) that don’t excite anyone.

This is why they are the Stupid Party. This is why they lose.

[DoodleDawg]

Just poll independents and you will find most of them regret voting for Obama.

They're not being asked to vote for Obama this time around.

[KC_Conspirator]

I totally agree.

A simple plan of running to repeal Obamacare, improving the crappy economy, running against amnesty, and for a competent national security policy could win running away.

But the idiot Beltway consultants running these campaigns do not get it.

[KSCITYBOY]

Vote fraud if SC goes dem.

[KC_Conspirator]

I agree, I am looking at +4, and that is fricking lame for such a President and his party who has such pi$$ poor approval ratings.

[Drew68]

Oh thats not what I read here. What I am constantly reading is “throw out the RINOs”!!!

Funny how that happens. And then once the Dems win, they scream, "Voter fraud!!!"

[Kazan]

If that REALLY is the case, then the election is rigged.

Not necessarily. There is absolutely no unity in the Republican party. The establishment tries to undermine conservative, Tea Party candidates and puts forth uninspiring candidates on one hand. And, on the other, we have those that so intent on finding the perfect conservative candidate, they reject acceptably conservative candidates.

House divided can't stand.

[Kazan]

In NC, *I* would be able to beat Kay Hagan. Instead, the GOPe fielded the only candidate that probably CAN’T<

Or the phony libertarian candidate is taking enough votes from Tillis to tip the election to Hagan.

Tillis is infinitely better than Hagen. It would moronic for all conservatives and libertarians in NC not to support him.

Whining about him when he is acceptably conservative is an example of the kind of stupidity that allows Democrats to remain in power.

[Kazan]

I think this is going to be a +4 election for the GOP, Reid is going to be able to continue packing the courts, and we are screwed.

That can only happen if there are enough malcontented "conservatives" that stay home because a perfect candidate wasn't the nominee and allows Democrats to win elections. That strategy has been tried since 2006 and doesn't work.

[txhurl]

Wasn’t Cantor polling comfortably ahead of Brat weeks ahead of the election?

Maybe the TEA Party ‘don’t poll’.

[txhurl]

Or maybe they don’t poll the TEA party.

[Kazan]

It’s Tea Partiers who are done voting for RINOs.

And, what good is that doing? That allowed Democrats to take back the Presidency and Congress and inflict permanent damage to the country -- like Obamacare -- that will never be reversed. That make ya feel better? Not voting for Romney gave us a second-term of a President that can't or won't defend the country and has opened the borders to illegals.

Thanks for standing principle, pal.

BTW, there is a difference between a liberal Republican and acceptably conservative one. But, those demanding perfect candidates can't tell the difference. Reagan would have been labeled RINO if he were a candidate today for some of the mistakes he made (amnesty, tax increases).

[KC_Conspirator]

I see a fu**ing 9 point lead for Hagan? What kind of garbage campaign are they running in NC? Totally incompetent.

[KoRn]

During the 2010 elections in VA, I noticed virtually EVERY race had a Libertarian stuck on the ballot to seemingly take votes away from Republican challengers. It nearly worked for at least a couple of them.

The folks in NC SHOULD vote for Tillis. I wasn’t suggesting otherwise. However, I believe they should have nominated the more conservative candidate during the primary. HELL... I’d take another Lindsey Grahamnesty over Kay Hagan, if given the choice. Saying that makes me want to take a shower.

[bert]

Ahh, but you misunderstand..... the sanctimonious self righteous among us value their own principles more than America. Their own self esteem is more valuable than a Republican Senate.

Then there is the laziness factor. It is far easier and several degrees less complex to sit on you ass on election day rather than to gather the responsible compunction to go vote.

Rationalization is so simple. All that is needed is conjur up some flimsy conservative sounding excuse and there is no real reason to go vote. To hell with America, I’m me and I trump everything....... that’s the attitude of the pompous sanctimonious self righteous.