Nate Silver's Senate Update: Democrats Draw Almost Even. Is It The Money?

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT ^ | 09/16/2014 | Nate Silver

[SeekAndFind]

When we officially launched our forecast model two weeks ago, it had Republicans with a 64 percent chance of taking over the Senate after this fall’s elections. Now Republican chances are about 55 percent instead. We’ve never quite settled on the semantics of when to call an election a “tossup.” A sports bettor or poker player would grimace and probably take a 55-45 edge. But this Senate race is pretty darned close.

What’s happened? The chart below lists the change in our forecast in each state between Sept. 3 (when our model launched) and our current (Sept. 15) update.

As you can see, there hasn’t been an across-the-board shift. Republicans’ odds have improved in several important races since the launch of our model. Democrats’ odds have improved in several others. But the two states with the largest shifts have been Colorado and North Carolina — in both cases, the movement has been in Democrats’ direction. That accounts for most of the difference in the forecast.

It might help to break the states down into several groups:

• Republican defenses (Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky). These are the three Republican-held seats where Democrats have some chance for a pickup. Democrats got good news in Kansas two weeks ago when their own candidate, Chad Taylor, ceased his campaign in the state — improving the odds for the center-left independent candidate, Greg Orman. Orman, however, is a slight underdog against the Republican incumbent Pat Roberts, and Orman isn’t certain to caucus with Democrats if he wins. Meanwhile, Democrats’ odds have declined somewhat in Georgia and Kentucky. Taken as a group then, these states have not produced much change in the overall forecast.

[brownsfan]

Republicans can’t win elections by running on the fact that they aren’t Democrats.

That is the current GOP strategy, and it will fail.

[buckalfa]

"Yeah, I don’t like Lindsey but I don’t see a demo winning SC."

Graham could conceivably go down in SC. The GOP usually holds an automatic 10 point advantage in SC, but with Lindsey being viewed unfavorably by conservatives, and with a third party candidate that could draw five percent of the vote as a protest, the Rat could sneak through.

[hcmama]

Here in NC, Thom Tillis is running the sorriest campaign I have ever seen. Kay Hagan is wisely keeping her mouth shut so she won’t reveal just how incorrigibly stupid she is, while a slew of outside groups are cutting Tillis to pieces. His response? Ubiquitous ads touting how be used to be a short-order cook and a warehouse worker. Even I am sick of seeing them.

[867V309]

Pajama Boy with a hoodie

[SeekAndFind]

RE: His response? Ubiquitous ads touting how be used to be a short-order cook and a warehouse worker. Even I am sick of seeing them.

What about Kay Hagan’s support of Obamacare? Any mention of that?

[boycott]

Oh thats not what I read here. What I am constantly reading is “throw out the RINOs”!!! There is a very large contingent on FreeRepublic who really don’t care if the Republicans win as long as the party is perfectly “pure”.

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Obama appreciates their point of view. So does Al Sharpton, Hollywood liberals, welfare mamas, illegals, muzzie-americans, liberal judge, abortionists, etc.

If they don’t get 100% of what they want, they don’t mind seeing the ship go down. Some are too stupid to realize they’re on the ship.

[cowboyusa]

I want to know the models of these polls, It's possible their using 2012 models.

[Wayne07]

I think this is going to be a +4 election for the GOP, Reid is going to be able to continue packing the courts, and we are screwed. In spite of 6 years of mediocre economy, Obamacare, and the rise of ISIS, there is zero excitement from the base this election. Smartest thing Obama did was wait until after the election to grant de facto amnesty.

[ex-snook]

"Americans need more reasons to vote GOP other than Democrats Bad, Harry Reid evil."

You mean the GOPs current reasons are lacking? - Isn't this enough - more tax breaks for the rich, more jobs exported, no more unemployment, war in the Ukraine and with ISIS, do nothing but talk about illegals, gay marriage and abortions, removing Obama from office?

[tennmountainman]

That is certainly a reason.

But Bonehead and McConnell are not talking about it.

[boycott]

Republicans aren’t so smart.

[Kenny]

There is no vision or plan coming from the GOP if power is given to them.

So true. I was thinking the other day that I should be hearing plans to shift Obamacare people onto other plans and a follow-up to repeal Obamacare. There should be a detailed plan of how to seal the border, how to stop ISIS, how to do anything.

[greene66]

All but impossible to get the least bit animated over the coming elections. With repulsive characters like Graham and McConnell running, and the absolutely sleazy and vile situation in Mississippi with Cochran, it’s become an election cycle that I don’t particularly see any representation of my views or ideology. Heck, and just last week, the Republican senate candidate was apparently all-out running on and endorsing fag-marriage! Good Lord!

I actually used to look forward to election seasons, and getting all wrapped up in the competitive excitement. But these days, I just look at the GOP and it makes me want to vomit.

[tennmountainman]

Exactly. There is no national message coming fro the GOP leadership.
Zip, nada, nothing.

Maybe the GOP does not want a sweeping election because they would actually have to do something and be held accountable.

[greene66]

...that is the GOP candidate “in Oregon” was out endorsing fag marriage.

[Theodore R.]

This shows that hard-core “blue” states will never leave their liberalism.

[boycott]

That is certainly a reason.

But Bonehead and McConnell are not talking about it.

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McConnell is too busy trying to save his own hide.

I know people that personally know speaker Bonehead. He’s a drunk. Yes, a drunk.

It will take others to step up because we certainly cannot rely on these two.

[tennmountainman]

There is nothing “pure” about wanting to hear a vision, a plan or message
to Americans on what the GOP will do with power, if power is given to them.

There is no message, plan or vision coming from the GOP other than
Democrats bad, Harry Reid evil.

And that will not be enough.

[Maceman]

No it’s not the money. It’s Tea Partiers who are done voting for RINOs.

Count me as one of them.

[Buckeye McFrog]

I’m afraid you’re right. Mitt Romney was spot-on with his comment on the 47% who were takers and thus could not be swayed by any argument.

If not in this election cycle, within the next couple that number will pass 50%, and there will be no turning back.