Posted on 05/07/2013 6:41:42 AM PDT by blam
The US Economy Is The Envy Of The World Again, And Just Like That The Bears Have Been Annihilated
Joe Weisenthal
May 7, 2013, 4:44 AM
Just two and a half weeks ago, the bears were starting to feel good.
Markets around the world seemed to be rolling over. Commodities were falling. People were talking about deflation.
And then, the market turned, and then we got Friday's strong jobs report.
Now the market is back to making new highs again, and the market bears are crushed.
A new note from Olivier Korber at SocGen is titled "US payrolls annihilated 'sell in May.'" Basically, whatever temptation there was to dump risky assets starting in May (as the cliche goes) has been sapped.
Separately, Steven Englander of Citi wrote yesterday:
The implications of the payroll release for FX is that the US is back on track as an outperformer (admittedly modest, but still standing out) in a world of underperformance, From a Fed perspective labor market improvement since last year has been steady but clear, with household and payroll employment and aggregate hours converging to a 1.5% y/y gain (Figure 1, upper panel). This is probably at the low end of what the FOMC core would consider acceptable.
This idea of the US being the one country that you "must own" was a huge theme in markets during the first quarter. Everyone sensed that the US was going towards liftoff, and that regardless of whatever else, exposure to the US was a must.
The same takeaway was offered from trader Mark Dow, who tweeted yesterday.
For now, the US is back to being the envy of the world.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Sounds just like 2000 on CNBC. “It’s a new paradigm” was chanted incessantly as technology had done away with the business cycle (or something like that). Shortly thereafter the Nasdaq imploded and the S&P took a 50% haircut.
Going to carry the jobs in a paper bag?
Just took a road trip and noticed much construction of large new houses. Also roads that weren’t that bad in my opinion. My city put up a putrid welcome monument on the highway.
There is a lot of activity. I am one, buying things now before inflation goes up or before the govt destroys my wealth.
Reflected on he Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith. His concepts was that when you invested your money it generated more wealth. One example of his time was tiling a wet field so that it would now be productive.
I truthfully say we are NOT generating more wealth, we are just consuming past and future wealth. But there is a lot of activity.
The Cedar Mesa rises 1200 feet above Utah flats below. Those flats stretch into Arizona and the horizon. There some ups and even protruding peaks but mostly it is just flat. The road down is treacherous, the Mokee Dugway. It is a truly exciting ride.
The flats are static and boring but to those in Europe and elsewhere the desert is safety. Compared to certain continuous unending down hill, the seemingly endless flats are the place to be
But American owes the world and we have to support all those 3rd world shi_holes so they can feel good about themselves...
Industries dependent on oil and natural gas would hire if supply were stable and the feds got out of the way.
Labor is not the sole factor of industrial production.
Whatever those guys are smokin', I want some !
Great sentiment my FRiend, but those jobs are long gone. Advances in and transfer of technology, the unintended consequences of economic policy formulated over the last 30 years, plus the lockstep of world governments and global corporations will insure that those jobs do not return to America.
I think out tax code could be used to great effect.
Tax imports.
No the problem is American industrial policy has been hijacked.
We need to bring back American production.
Both parties are now complicit, but what they are doing is building up China is a way now which is on its way toward making China stronger than America.
Wake up people.
Well, I’m no economist, but I’m pretty sure there is more to the U.S. economy than just the daily rates of the stock markets.
The economy looks great as long as you don’t pay attention to the Fed and QE, and how many people have dropped out of the labor force, as well as those on food stamps, welfare, and disability.
It’s a food stamp recovery! Yay!
There are dozens of factors that they don't account for. Not a single person just attaining workforce age is considered to be unemployed. People who have gone from being an engineer to flipping burgers are considered fully employed. People that have ceased collecting unemployment are not considered to be unemployed. Women that would have gone back to work when their kids left home are not considered to be unemployed. People who have gone on disability (in record numbers) are not counted as unemployed.
Meanwhile, people who were working a single full time job, but are now working two part time jobs are being counted as two employed workers.
This is incorrect. Hiring occurs in the hundreds of thousands a week. Just like firings. The +165K is NET (hirings less firings). Just some facts for you:
Average NFP increases under Reagan? +166K Average NFP increases under Bush 41? +93K Average NFP increases under Clinton? +196K Average NFP increases under Bush 43? +19K Average NFP increases under Obama? +20K
The average from January 1981 (when Reagan took office) through now? +115K
Out of the 388 months in this sample, increases in NFP have been greater that 350K just 27 times.
I think we need to take the position of supporting American industry.
By American industry I mean, industry in America.
Not imports. Not American offshore businesses. American.
China is now a larger exporter than America is. China is growing, we are not.
This is important, and we need to support our own nation.
Ah yes of course it is. Because like all the closet statists on FR you love the Government and you think we should have more of it.
Tariffs are just another way for the Government and their tame unions to seize money from wealth-producers.
Tariffs would trap Americans into buying domestic production no matter how unionized or expensive it was. The US already has enough prisons - there's no need to make the whole country into one!
America is doing badly because it is treating capital badly.
America is acting as if it hated wealth-producers (unless they use their wealth to support Obama). People who want to produce wealth in America face formidable legal, environmental and tax burdens. They also face an increasingly irrational and arbitrary legislature.
That's why business-owners choose not to invest their hard-earned capital in building factories and other physical plant in America. They are taking THEIR wealth and they are placing it where it won't get stolen or suborned.
Good chart. Most people don’t want to see the positives because it’s Obama in the chair. I get that and have huge issues with his policies and the fact that they are stifling growth. The economy is growing, albeit slightly 1-2% GDP, in spite of his growth crushing policies.
Well it’s obvious, we must elect Hillary in 2016 to keep the gravy train rolling.
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