Posted on 10/24/2012 9:57:16 PM PDT by Ravi
above
(Excerpt) Read more at docs.google.com ...
First Ohio, as of tonite, per the counties that are reporting both 2008 and 2012 information (53 out of 88 counties), Republicans are only 3000 behind their TOTAL ballot requests for 2008. And there are two weeks left. Repeat only 3000.
Dems OTH are 120,000 BEHIND their 2008 totals. I sense a disruption in the force here. Many dems are sitting this one out is my best guess. Cuyahoga has come through for them (high AA population) but Franklin has not (college population). Other counties have not come through for them either as best I can tell: Licking, Lucas, Montgomery, Pickaway, Richland, Ross, Stark, Summit, Trunbull, Tuscarawas, Union, Wayne. Why these counties? Possibly bitter clingers but just my guess - others can elucidate me on this. But the fact remains other than Cuyahoga, they are severely underperforming their 2008 totals.
A couple of caveats again: we are missing 35 counties that have incomplete info (most of these are repub leaning but a couple are dem also like Lorain and Mahoning). We need all the county information for both this year and 2008 for all counties to have a complete picture. Nonetheless, with 53 counties, the trend is real.
Also for Cuyahoga, republicans are overperforming also. They are 15,000 ahead of 2008 - incredible numbers! Because if we keep it relatively close in Cuyahoga, the rest of the state seems to be falling into place. Right now, dems have a lead in Cuyahoga of 80,000 and my best educated guess right now is they end up with 180,000 lead on election nite there. That will not be enough to overcome the rest of the state. We keep it under 200,000 here - we win plain and simple. 200k-240k difference: I think we are slightly ahead. Over 240k, I think we would be slightly behind.
Anyway lots of fun with numbers there.
NV: most interested in bellwether Washoe (Reno).
Obama beat McCain statewide 55 to 43 and also in Washoe 55 to 43. In 2008, dems were 47% of early voters and reps 35%. Early voting in Washoe accounted for 64% of the total vote.
Currently as of tonite, dems have been 44% of the early voters and reps 40%. This has closed gradually the past two days and this trend is extremely favorable. Still somewhat early though. We are at 16% of 2008 turnout thus far. Watch this track.
IA: Very close. 542,000 ballots requested: Dems 44% and Reps 31%. Much better ratio than 08 where it was 47 to 29. @adrian_gray feels this is tracking close to 2004. We'll see. One difference is there are more registered repubs there than dems now so they just have to vote early or on election day and we should be fine. My guess here is half the vote in IA will be early about 750k or thereabouts.
Anyway fire away.
ping
Ravi - Excellent analysis! Thanks for posting!!
Thanks Ravi. I enjoy these threads.
Most Republicans I know prefer to vote in-person, election day. I’d be one of them if I didn’t live in a hellhole mail-only state.
If enthusiasm is great, then making sure the Republican-Democrat improvement is big enough to overcome the final Republican-Democrat vote totals in 2008 matters a lot less.
Have you crunched these hard numbers against polls showing Obama with gigantic early voter leads? In many cases, the poll shows far more early voters than can be verified by hard states from the SOS office
IMO, just because a Dem requests a ballot, does not necessarily mean he will vote for the Dem candidates- MANY of them likely have “voters’ remorse”;)
Poll Ping.
It is nice that you do this. I get too confused when I look at the spreadsheets since I really don’t know OH or the other states well enough to make heads or tails of it without a lot of study.
I show as a rat because in 08 I wanted to mess with the primary (a la Rush).
But this so called rat already sent her ballot in for Romney. There must be a bunch like me.
It’s patently ridiculous like with the Time poll showing Obama ahead 60 to 30 with early voters from earlier today. Right now with requests, we are only 6% behind. 29 to 23 approximately. 48% are unaffiliateds. So basically for O to lead 60 to 30 he mops up almost all the unaffiliateds which is absurd just on its face. A lot of unaffiliateds are dems are repubs of course who have not voted in primaries before but they are not all closet dems - that makes no sense at all.
Yes how many chaos voters are there for either side? I do wonder that. I figured it was miniscule but I could be wrong.
The reason such polls are absurd is because Romney is getting three things: a majority of the white vote, a majority of men and a super-majority of independents.
Its mathematically impossible for Obama to win without them! The reason the media calls it a horse race is besides propping up Obama, they need to keep people interested. If they say the election is over, then no one will pay any attention to what they write.
Romney will have days when its close but no reasonable person at this point has any doubt that he will win. And the much touted October Surprise is a dud. Its clear sailing from here onwards.
Pray for the future of America!
I think we are at 1.6 mil absentee/early vote requests. I predict final turnout about 5.5 mil. Not all of these requests have turned in their ballots or early voted - about 800,000 have turned in ballots or voted early. That is a turnout roughly of 14.5% as of tonite. Some of these polls show early vote at 20% as of a few days ago - obviously an error there.
Something to cheer you up.
Liberals like Stu Rothenberg are already yammering the election is a toss-up!
They’re in full denial mode now.
Great work as always, Ravi. I’m feeling hopeful...though I won’t really breathe easy until Obama gives his concession speech, LOL.
Getting liberals to look at things objectively is very difficult.
O will keep his base and even though the economy is bad, he’s a failure and has no plan for the future, people are still going to vote for him.
You can do everything wrong in this country and still be rewarded for it. And your Obama voters still think its “all Bush’s fault!”
If you had to bet your life on it, do you REALLY think Romney wins Ohio?
It is so hard for me to be optomistic because I just feel like he has always gotten away with EVERYTHING!
Thanks for the great info.
I can only speak to Richland (and Lucas’ demographics are similar to Richland as is Crawford) since I grew up there and my dad still lives in the area.
Heavily unionized (auto, steel)and thus lots of Democrats.
And it is generational union mentality.
These communities have been decimated by this administration and haven’t been saved by their unions.
Many previous Odumbo voters are disgusted by him and will not pull the lever for him. I doubt they could bring themselves to vote Republican, so they are probably just sitting it out. That’s my two cents:)
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