Posted on 10/18/2012 6:35:29 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate,...
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
And “There you go again!” (wish this site had an edit feature)
Actually, I believe Gallup is building in that air knowing full good and well some % of the 2% Undecided will indeed wander back to Bobo in the last weekend before the election, regardless of debates, ads, surprises, etc...
For instance, Gore got a 0.8-1.2% return that dumb pollsters blamed on the drunk driving story [Rove: "Before the news broke, we were up … in Maine … Bush went on to lose Maine … If Bush did drop 2 percent nationally in the vote because of the DUI revelation, then it probably cost him four additional states that he lost by less than 1 percent — New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Oregon."], and smart pollsters blamed on the historically perpetually lost sheep (ie Dems) returning to their incumbent in the final days of an incumbent election, albeit of the rarish VP-for-Pres-3rd-term type.
I hate to cross-post from another thread, but I should have put this here.
My 287EV tagline represents states by their PV +GOP margin, ie they are all locks, even if it's +1 actual vote for Romney in NV.
The next five states would be: NH+4 [294EV, and I'm seriously considering adding it], WI+10 [304EV], PA+20 [320EV], NM+5 [325EV], MI+16 [341EV].
So what? He loses Ohio, it’s 269-269. What better reward of the 2010 GOP tsunami that so many Freepers worked so hard for, than to have that be the actual locus of unseating Bobo. It’s the Immaculate Schadenfreude.
Remarkable, isn’t it, how Candy just happened to have that particular document right at her finger-tips?
“I did analysis on Independents several weeks ago. If you go back to 1992... Dems cannot lose indies and win election. Repubs always outperform base.
If Romney is up 9 with indies, it is all over... and coupled with enthusiasm edge, we are looking at a landslide.”
This is something I found odd with the poll. Rasmussen must be doing something funny if he has Romney winning Independents by 9, but only ahead by 2 overall. That doesn’t add up.
If he wins Independents by 9, he should win by about the margin Obama did in 2008.
Sweet!!
:)))
Nobody freak out if Ras has it tied or O by +1 on Monday because the weekend sucks for R/R in his polls.
Nah he’ll get more than that probably 47% to 48%.
You’re optimistic though. That’s a good thing around here when most are cynical!
I can’t believe Rasmussen would deliberately mess up his own poll. That sounds ridiculous.
The advantage of maintaining a baseline there is that his poll is much less volatile. People polled for their affiliation add another factor to how polls will swing.
I support his turnout model as conservative, erring on the side of caution.
Well we will just have to agree to disagree and see what happens in a few weeks.
I think you are gravely overestimating Obama’s strength, he’s not even polling 47-48% in many polls. I’ve believed from the outset, he’s got a max in the low 40s.. 42-43%, I’ve seen nothing to change my mind.
Obviously it doesn’t matter as long as he loses.. but I have zero belief Obama will do better than McCain did in ‘08. McCain had the perfect storm going against him, and while not an exciting candidate, was at least competent. Obama has the perfect storm against him, mostly from his own making, and he’s not remotely competent.
Time will tell.
I hope you’re correct!
Isn’t Gallup up to 52-45 today?
Yes! Praise The Lord!..............
3.13
10 to the 27th power
Say your prayers, tonights debate is crucial!
NO way that 10^27 = 3.13.
they are both favorites. memory is intact
On the edge of my seat over the debate.
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