Posted on 10/18/2012 6:35:29 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate,...
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Ras moving to magic 50%, realizes race is no longer as fluid as it was, doesn’t want to get caught short.
>> I like Gallup’s numbers: R-51 / O-45 <<
I like ‘em too, but I fear they represent some kind of outlier. I’ve gotta think R’s lead is more in the vicinity of three point.
Gallup’s numbers are a 7-day Rolling Average. Rasmussen’s numbers are 3-day..........
I'm trying to diet my schadenfreude right now so the sweet tears of unfathomable MSM sadness somehow make up for this 4-year nightmare...
I smell a 'RAT' here. I think these extra couple of points is a 'set up' for a final week fake 'pull back' to give the impression of an Obama fake 'come back'.
Sunday also dropped off, and it was probably a good Obama day.
That could also explain the increase.
Sunday also dropped off, and it was probably a good Obama day.
That could also explain the increase.
Sunday also dropped off, and it was probably a good Obama day.
That could also explain the increase.
Factoid that may be of interest to the mathematically inclined:
This morning’s RCP average has R leading by 0.5%. But that’s an unweighted average. When we rerun the numbers so as to weight the average by sample sizes, it turns out that R has a lead of 1.7%. Big difference!
I agree. Ras is the most realistic estimate that can be had by polling.
No, he still wins at this point under the worst-case scenario 269-269EV tie, and then the House votes by delegations 30-20 for Romney and ... maybe some interesting times ...
Sure. One normally would expect, ceteris paribus, that a seven-day average should be less volatile than a three-day average.
But apparently the ceteri aren't paribi:
As I heard Mike Barone explain last night on the radio, Gallup uses some kind of "arbitrary" screen for LV's that makes their survey more volatile than Ras's survey.
(I didn't completely follow the logic, but I trust Barone.)
>> the House votes by delegations 30-20 for Romney and . . . <<
and the Senate, deadlocked at 50D-50R, will elect Biden as the new VP, since Biden — as current VP — will hold the tie-breaking vote until Jan 20, 2013!
This for instance-—
A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president’s job performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) at least somewhat disapprove.
I think Ras swing state polls are on a rolling 7 day basis
(unlike his 3 day national polls).
Romney is ahead nationally but the polling still is not there on some essential swing states - namely Ohio.
It’s not good enough to take polls showing one point down in Ohio, and then switch to polls showing 4 points down in other states as teh alternative.
Romney may win Ohio based on the old incumbent needs to poll over 50% rule, then again Ohio had early voting before the debates and when Romney was more behind there. I know Freepers will post “don’t worry, there is no way Obama will win my state!”
“Candy, get the transcript!” should go down in history alongside “I knew Jack Kennedy.”
Except, isn’t Ras using a D+3 model or something when his own polling is showing the electorate will be more like R+2?
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