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Obama 348, Romney 190: UAH astrophysicist, who got it right twice before, predicts electoral results
The Huntsville Times ^ | Tuesday, October 02, 2012 | Challen Stephens

Posted on 10/03/2012 5:10:05 PM PDT by Condor 63

There is little suspense left in our presidential horse race, even in most of the so-called swing states, says astrophysicist and statistician Wes Colley.

The way he measures the poll data and his deceptively simple median method, which have correctly predicted the last two presidential elections, show President Obama has locked up Ohio and Virginia and cemented a small, but stable lead in Florida.

Bottom line: Obama is well on his way to re-election.

"I think the operative word is disaster if you're a Republican," said Colley on Monday. "I think the operative word is confidence if you're a Democrat."

"These things can swing a lot. But it would have to swing a lot a lot."

(Excerpt) Read more at blog.al.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Alabama; US: Arizona; US: Florida; US: Hawaii; US: Indiana; US: Missouri; US: New Jersey; US: North Carolina; US: North Dakota; US: Ohio; US: Oregon; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: alabama; arizona; disaster; florida; hawaii; indiana; missouri; northcarolina; northdakota; ohio; oregon; princeton; richardgott; stopconservatives; stoprepubvote; uahuntsville; ucla; virginia; voodoo; wescolley
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To: Condor 63

Since many astrophysicists depend heavily on government grants for their income, I think I see what’s driving his prediction...


41 posted on 10/03/2012 5:40:42 PM PDT by Lou L (Health "insurance" is NOT the same as health "care")
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To: Condor 63

someone tell them we are not going to Mars...


42 posted on 10/03/2012 5:41:07 PM PDT by hadaclueonce (you are paying 12% more for fuel because of Ethanol. Smile big Corn Lobby,)
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To: hadaclueonce

Yawn........

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/08/22/analysis-election-factors-points-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says


43 posted on 10/03/2012 5:43:57 PM PDT by Johnny_cash
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To: hadaclueonce

“someone tell them we are not going to Mars...”

And his mom called and said to clean up his room in the basement..


44 posted on 10/03/2012 5:43:57 PM PDT by hadaclueonce (you are paying 12% more for fuel because of Ethanol. Smile big Corn Lobby,)
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To: Raycpa

But.. Where’s your prediction THIS election?


45 posted on 10/03/2012 5:44:05 PM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: Condor 63

Wezzy needs to mash here...and start the Jaegermeister shooters!!! Cause in another month it ain’t gonna be pretty...

http://unskewedpolls.com/dailytrackingpoll.cfm


46 posted on 10/03/2012 5:47:28 PM PDT by mo (If you understand, no explanation is needed. If you don't understand, no explanation is possible.)
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To: Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America

I’m hoping my score after this election is 2 out of 3.


47 posted on 10/03/2012 5:50:26 PM PDT by Raycpa
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To: Raycpa

I predicted the last 4, and I did not use scientific methods


48 posted on 10/03/2012 5:52:48 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: Condor 63

This guy does football and basketball picks as well. I think he was part of the original BCS formula for football. I’m serious, not kidding.


49 posted on 10/03/2012 5:57:14 PM PDT by muwarriors92
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To: gswilder

Neither do pollsters apparently.


50 posted on 10/03/2012 6:03:03 PM PDT by Raycpa
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To: Condor 63
The professor form University of Colorado which has not been wrong since 1930s says that Rhomney could win in a landslide.
51 posted on 10/03/2012 6:04:21 PM PDT by mountainlion (Live well for those that did not make it back.)
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To: Political Junkie Too

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/30/we-are-the-91-only-9-of-americans-cooperate-with-pollsters/ ~ bottom line shows the influence of the ability to refer all your calls ~ whether cell or land line ~ to later at your choice ~ all thanks to caller ID and universal automated answering service. We are now down to just 9% of sampled voters being interviewed by pollsters. It was double that in Colley’s last election and triple that in his election before that one. He’s simply wrong ~ it doesn’t work that way anymore.


52 posted on 10/03/2012 6:42:22 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: mo

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/30/we-are-the-91-only-9-of-americans-cooperate-with-pollsters/ ~ unskewed polls missed the boat this year. We are down to 9% response rates on polling. That means all the polls, skewed or unskewed, are meaningless! The pollsters just give you guesses that make you happy.


53 posted on 10/03/2012 6:48:13 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: mo

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/30/we-are-the-91-only-9-of-americans-cooperate-with-pollsters/ ~ unskewed polls missed the boat this year. We are down to 9% response rates on polling. That means all the polls, skewed or unskewed, are meaningless! The pollsters just give you guesses that make you happy.


54 posted on 10/03/2012 6:51:39 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Condor 63

next thing you know this guy will claim to have inside infor from Area 51.....gee wheez I am underwhelmed


55 posted on 10/03/2012 7:49:40 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: Condor 63

The guy also is predicting that the House will flip back to the Democrats, and that the Dems will pick up 4-7 Senate seats.


56 posted on 10/03/2012 7:50:55 PM PDT by Thunder90 (Kick Obama out of the White House in 2012.)
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To: Condor 63

I think the operative word is A-hole if you are an elitist Academician like this jerk.

OBVIOUSLY he failed to watch the debate tonight or even look at the closing polls.


57 posted on 10/03/2012 7:59:43 PM PDT by ZULU (See video: http://gatesofvienna.blogspot.com/2012/09/the-first-siege-of-vienna.html)
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To: Condor 63

I think the operative word is A-hole if you are an elitist Academician like this jerk.

OBVIOUSLY he failed to watch the debate tonight or even look at the closing polls.


58 posted on 10/03/2012 8:01:18 PM PDT by ZULU (See video: http://gatesofvienna.blogspot.com/2012/09/the-first-siege-of-vienna.html)
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To: Condor 63

Astrophysicist and Statistician Wes Colley working on his model

59 posted on 10/03/2012 8:16:50 PM PDT by garjog (We do not want another four more years of the last four years.)
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To: Condor 63

“These things can swing a lot. But it would have to swing a lot a lot.”

Well, Mr. Wes Colley, it just swung, ... a lot. In Mitt Romney’s direction. Your prediction is null and void.


60 posted on 10/03/2012 9:20:32 PM PDT by flaglady47 (When the gov't fears the people, liberty; When the people fear the gov't, tyranny.)
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