Posted on 10/03/2012 5:10:05 PM PDT by Condor 63
There is little suspense left in our presidential horse race, even in most of the so-called swing states, says astrophysicist and statistician Wes Colley.
The way he measures the poll data and his deceptively simple median method, which have correctly predicted the last two presidential elections, show President Obama has locked up Ohio and Virginia and cemented a small, but stable lead in Florida.
Bottom line: Obama is well on his way to re-election.
"I think the operative word is disaster if you're a Republican," said Colley on Monday. "I think the operative word is confidence if you're a Democrat."
"These things can swing a lot. But it would have to swing a lot a lot."
(Excerpt) Read more at blog.al.com ...
Since many astrophysicists depend heavily on government grants for their income, I think I see what’s driving his prediction...
someone tell them we are not going to Mars...
“someone tell them we are not going to Mars...”
And his mom called and said to clean up his room in the basement..
But.. Where’s your prediction THIS election?
Wezzy needs to mash here...and start the Jaegermeister shooters!!! Cause in another month it ain’t gonna be pretty...
http://unskewedpolls.com/dailytrackingpoll.cfm
I’m hoping my score after this election is 2 out of 3.
I predicted the last 4, and I did not use scientific methods
This guy does football and basketball picks as well. I think he was part of the original BCS formula for football. I’m serious, not kidding.
Neither do pollsters apparently.
http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/30/we-are-the-91-only-9-of-americans-cooperate-with-pollsters/ ~ bottom line shows the influence of the ability to refer all your calls ~ whether cell or land line ~ to later at your choice ~ all thanks to caller ID and universal automated answering service. We are now down to just 9% of sampled voters being interviewed by pollsters. It was double that in Colley’s last election and triple that in his election before that one. He’s simply wrong ~ it doesn’t work that way anymore.
http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/30/we-are-the-91-only-9-of-americans-cooperate-with-pollsters/ ~ unskewed polls missed the boat this year. We are down to 9% response rates on polling. That means all the polls, skewed or unskewed, are meaningless! The pollsters just give you guesses that make you happy.
http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/30/we-are-the-91-only-9-of-americans-cooperate-with-pollsters/ ~ unskewed polls missed the boat this year. We are down to 9% response rates on polling. That means all the polls, skewed or unskewed, are meaningless! The pollsters just give you guesses that make you happy.
next thing you know this guy will claim to have inside infor from Area 51.....gee wheez I am underwhelmed
The guy also is predicting that the House will flip back to the Democrats, and that the Dems will pick up 4-7 Senate seats.
I think the operative word is A-hole if you are an elitist Academician like this jerk.
OBVIOUSLY he failed to watch the debate tonight or even look at the closing polls.
I think the operative word is A-hole if you are an elitist Academician like this jerk.
OBVIOUSLY he failed to watch the debate tonight or even look at the closing polls.
Astrophysicist and Statistician Wes Colley working on his model
“These things can swing a lot. But it would have to swing a lot a lot.”
Well, Mr. Wes Colley, it just swung, ... a lot. In Mitt Romney’s direction. Your prediction is null and void.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.