Posted on 01/11/2012 7:47:12 PM PST by VinL
ATLANTA -- As the GOP races settles into South Carolina, Mitt Romney isn’t enjoying the double-digit lead he held in New Hampshire, according to a survey conducted Wednesday night.
The former Massachusetts governor’s lead is so small in the Palmetto State that he’s essentially tied with Newt Gingrich, according to a poll for the Savannah Morning News and the Augusta Chronicle conducted by InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research.
Romney’s 23 percent and Gingrich’s 21 fall within the 3.6 percent margin of error. Rick Santorum, who came in second in the Iowa caucus is in third place in South Carolina with 14 percent, while Ron Paul, the runner up in New Hampshire, is effectively tied with him at 13.
Jon Huntsman has 7, and Rick Perry has 5 while 17 percent are undecided or favor a candidate not offered as a choice in the survey.
The telephone survey questioned 726 registered voters who said they were likely to vote in the South Carolina GOP primary. Voters don’t have to be Republicans to participate in the Jan. 21 balloting, but independents generally make up a small share of the total, according to pollster Matt Towery, president of InsiderAdvantage.
Romney, Gingrich and Paul all do equally well with the independents in the survey. Paul, though, is getting little traction from long-time Republican voters.
Romney does better with female voters while men prefer Gingrich.
“This is not good news for Mitt Romney,” said Towery, who chaired several of Gingrich’s congressional campaigns before becoming a non-partisan pollster. “There is no other way to put it. This means it is a dead-even race. South Carolinians couldn’t care less about New Hampshire or Iowa.”
Romney, on his second try for the nomination, won the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary this month, the first non-incumbent Republican to do so. However, those back-to-back wins don’t seem to be giving him overwhelming momentum this far South.
Gingrich represented the western part of neighboring Georgia for 20 years in Congress and apparently knows how to appeal to southern voters who tend to be more concerned about social issues than those in New Hampshire.
The Jan. 21 GOP primary in South Carolina is regarded as the first meaningful contest because of what the results will signal for the party's chances of defeating President Obama in November. Of course, it's also stoking anticipation because of the legendary ruthlessness of the state's political operatives.
Republicans in South Carolina like to remind people that their primary picks presidents, or at least presidential nominees. Since 1980, when Ronald Reagan won 55 percent of the vote, no candidate has captured the Republican nomination for president without notching a win in South Carolina's GOP primary. In the 2008 election, eventual-nominee John McCain won the South Carolina primary with more than 30 percent of the vote, trailed by Iowa winner Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. Romney came in fourth in South Carolina with about 15 percent.
This time, the results will be dramatically different, as the state's active Evangelical voting bloc is expected to set aside prejudice in favor of pragmatism. Support among their ranks may signal that they accept Romney, a Mormon, in part for being the candidate largely believed to offer the toughest challenge to President Obama.
Since Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, where Romney steamrolled his rivals with nearly 40 percent of the vote, the candidates have swarmed the Palmetto State. They are stumping at barbecue joints, pharmacies, universities and local government buildings. On Monday, the candidates are scheduled to participate in a debate in Myrtle Beach, hosted by the SCGOP, Fox News Channel, The Wall Street Journal, and Twitter.
Some are seeing the Palmetto State as their last chance to justify their candidacy.
llandres, I didn’t hear the interview. But, I think the correct politic reply at this point is just as she said—and Newt is kind of saying the same thing.
BUT, I think they know now that this thing will have a life of its own-—and they are going to let the media and the PACS dog Romney on the issue.
It’s out there.
I think Perry is staying in to play attack dog and diminish Romneys electibility fable. That’s why he has doubled down on Romney’s Bain record.
This should help Newt and Rick. They can get back on message while the Superpac and Perry continue pound Romney.
“1. Can Newt tap into 2010 anti-establishment tea party; 2. will Gov. Palin come on board.”
Surveys I’ve been seeing say the majority of tea party members will support the nominee no matter what, in order to beat BHO; and Sarah may well not endorse anyone, but her husband Todd did - Newt. She may do what Herman said tonight on Sean he’s doing - that he’ll support our nominee and he doesn’t want to be unfair or disappoint his supporters by endorsing any one person. He has said he likes Newt (I think best), Santorum and Perry, all.
Yes, if RuPaul would stop taking up so much oxygen, I think Newt could beat Romney yet.
Good point!
“Carolina corn is better than Iowa and Midwesterners don’t know the first thing about BBQ lmao.”
Now, wait just a minute - my daddy (up close to Iowa) still raises the best corn and I’m in Kansas City (bbq par excellence) - them’s fightin’ words! LOL
Uh, I supported Cain- but given the nexus between Newt and Cain (female problems); I don’t think Newt wanted his endorsement- just my opinion.
It’s just my guess, but I don’t think Todd would have gone for Newt— if Sarah wasn’t thinking along the same line. If Romney wins, Sarah is out of the loop for 8 years. With Newt, she gets energy secrtary for 2 years, and then in 2014, she can run for Senate in Alaska. Just conjecture- but I don’t see her viability, even as an commentator, if she’s totally ooutside the process.
Unexpected!
There IS no better corn than Iowa corn, anywhere. Anyone who thinks differently has obviously never had Iowa corn.
Bolton wants BHO defeated at all costs (and he said as much on Greta), but he’s one of these who seems to really believe that Mittens has the best chance of doing that - probably because of the recent primaries, polls and trending.
But I was very, very disappointed.
lilyfreeper wrote:
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Santorum needs to bail out now! He has no chance whatsoever.
Crazy social con.
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If you find social conservatives to be “crazy”, then you’re posting in the wrong forum, my friend.
jeltz25 wrote:
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Cain just said today he probably won’t endorse anyone. He said he doesn’t want to upset any of his supporters who may support someone else.
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If some get upset, then so be it. What does Cain really have to lose at this point? He’s no longer running.
babygene wrote:
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Actually, probably 1 in 10,000 people know who John Bolton is...
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I think I know who he is... Isn’t he the dude who sings “How Am I Supposed to Live Without You”? :-)
I don’t know what interview you saw, but Palin jumped right on board criticizing Romney’s tenure at Bain. She is as much a populist as any Republican. After all, she went after the oil companies in Alaska for a much greater share of the oil profits. The idea that big business is “looking out for us” is ludicrous. Freedom means a lot of things, including having to watch your back in a dog-eat-dog world.
The Bain stuff back fired! The Gun control, abortion stance his tax increases and the number of jobs he said he made is starting to take a toll on Romney!
I'd be surprised if 51 blacks in the entire state voted for Gingrich or Romney. Someone must be polling blacks for their perspective on the Republican candidates - not their voting preferences. 90+% of that vote will go to Obama, guaranteed.
One of the very underreported things so far has been the Mormon Church’s history with blacks. It’s not too pretty. I’m sure many blacks are aware of it.
You might be surprised. The Mormon world might as well be on the other side of the planet, as far as most blacks are concerned. I grew up in that community, and had absolutely no awareness of Mormons, until I was fully grown. Even then, I was in my 40s before I even knew a little bit about their history or religion.
And I'm a guy that reads.
Welcome aboard the Newt Train! :~)
I'm pretty sure those stats were drawn from the perspectives of black voters on the Republican race - not their voting preferences (which are going to be for Obama by 90% or better).
“Santorum ... Crazy social con.”
Why would you say something so dumb?
“he needs to do the honorable thing, bow out and immediately endorse and go to work for Newt Gingrich.”
Hope I’m wrong, but I predict Santorum will endorse Romney.
I think Perry will support Newt, though.
One of the very underreported things so far has been the Mormon Church’s history with blacks. It’s not too pretty. I’m sure many blacks are aware of it...and possibly looking to let Romney know how they feel.
LOL, this post tops it all. Of sample of 22 blacks, incorrectly tabulated, you are ready to indict, convict and sentence a man based on a leftist concept of collective guilt.
First, it is 1.7% to 50.9 If you round, you round honestly. Rounding 1.7% to nearest integer, as you did, I get 2, and that is double of 1 that you get.
Next, in a sample of 22 blacks, 1 person counts as 4.55%. So there is no such thing as 1.7%. Unless the polling company was counting the sole black supporter of Romney as 1/3 of a person. That;s not even 3/5 that the slaves counted for...
Can we have a little more honesty, please?
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