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Poll: Romney has tiny lead over Gingrich in South Carolina (Insider Advantage Newt -2)
Savanahnow.com ^ | 1-11-12 | Jones

Posted on 01/11/2012 7:47:12 PM PST by VinL

ATLANTA -- As the GOP races settles into South Carolina, Mitt Romney isn’t enjoying the double-digit lead he held in New Hampshire, according to a survey conducted Wednesday night.

The former Massachusetts governor’s lead is so small in the Palmetto State that he’s essentially tied with Newt Gingrich, according to a poll for the Savannah Morning News and the Augusta Chronicle conducted by InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research.

Romney’s 23 percent and Gingrich’s 21 fall within the 3.6 percent margin of error. Rick Santorum, who came in second in the Iowa caucus is in third place in South Carolina with 14 percent, while Ron Paul, the runner up in New Hampshire, is effectively tied with him at 13.

Jon Huntsman has 7, and Rick Perry has 5 while 17 percent are undecided or favor a candidate not offered as a choice in the survey.

The telephone survey questioned 726 registered voters who said they were likely to vote in the South Carolina GOP primary. Voters don’t have to be Republicans to participate in the Jan. 21 balloting, but independents generally make up a small share of the total, according to pollster Matt Towery, president of InsiderAdvantage.

Romney, Gingrich and Paul all do equally well with the independents in the survey. Paul, though, is getting little traction from long-time Republican voters.

Romney does better with female voters while men prefer Gingrich.

“This is not good news for Mitt Romney,” said Towery, who chaired several of Gingrich’s congressional campaigns before becoming a non-partisan pollster. “There is no other way to put it. This means it is a dead-even race. South Carolinians couldn’t care less about New Hampshire or Iowa.”

Romney, on his second try for the nomination, won the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary this month, the first non-incumbent Republican to do so. However, those back-to-back wins don’t seem to be giving him overwhelming momentum this far South.

Gingrich represented the western part of neighboring Georgia for 20 years in Congress and apparently knows how to appeal to southern voters who tend to be more concerned about social issues than those in New Hampshire.

The Jan. 21 GOP primary in South Carolina is regarded as the first meaningful contest because of what the results will signal for the party's chances of defeating President Obama in November. Of course, it's also stoking anticipation because of the legendary ruthlessness of the state's political operatives.

Republicans in South Carolina like to remind people that their primary picks presidents, or at least presidential nominees. Since 1980, when Ronald Reagan won 55 percent of the vote, no candidate has captured the Republican nomination for president without notching a win in South Carolina's GOP primary. In the 2008 election, eventual-nominee John McCain won the South Carolina primary with more than 30 percent of the vote, trailed by Iowa winner Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. Romney came in fourth in South Carolina with about 15 percent.

This time, the results will be dramatically different, as the state's active Evangelical voting bloc is expected to set aside prejudice in favor of pragmatism. Support among their ranks may signal that they accept Romney, a Mormon, in part for being the candidate largely believed to offer the toughest challenge to President Obama.

Since Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, where Romney steamrolled his rivals with nearly 40 percent of the vote, the candidates have swarmed the Palmetto State. They are stumping at barbecue joints, pharmacies, universities and local government buildings. On Monday, the candidates are scheduled to participate in a debate in Myrtle Beach, hosted by the SCGOP, Fox News Channel, The Wall Street Journal, and Twitter.

Some are seeing the Palmetto State as their last chance to justify their candidacy.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; US: Georgia; US: Massachusetts; US: Pennsylvania; US: South Carolina
KEYWORDS: georgia; gingrich; massachusetts; mittromney; newtgingrich; pennsylvania; ricksantorum; southcarolina
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To: rbmillerjr

Good to hear. I’ve been talking him up to family and friends. Quite a few have expressed interest in learning more.


41 posted on 01/11/2012 8:55:13 PM PST by Stonewall Jackson ("I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy.")
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To: VinL
This time, the results will be dramatically different, as the state's active Evangelical voting bloc is expected to set aside prejudice in favor of pragmatism/

Yes, but not necessarily to Romney's benefit. Rick Santorum and Newt Gigrish are both "Papists."

42 posted on 01/11/2012 8:56:57 PM PST by danielmryan
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To: WFTR
Rick Santorum looks pretty good, but in South Carolina, he's just another Yankee.

Santorum was actually born in the South. I don't know why he isn't advertising that point.

43 posted on 01/11/2012 8:59:08 PM PST by Hoodat (Because they do not change, Therefore they do not fear God. -Psalm 55:19-)
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To: WFTR

>> South Carolina evangelicals are putting aside anti-Mormon bias and looking again at Mitt Romney.

Who are you kidding? They probably don’t know he’s Mormon.

Unlike Romney, Gingrich admits to his mistakes and immorality.


44 posted on 01/11/2012 8:59:19 PM PST by Gene Eric (C'mon, Virginia -- are you with us or against us?!)
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To: danielmryan

Daniel, that wasn’t my “quote”. The poster must have taken it from the article.


45 posted on 01/11/2012 8:59:40 PM PST by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, than to consent to wrong.)
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To: All

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46 posted on 01/11/2012 8:59:40 PM PST by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: l8pilot; 2A Patriot; 2nd amendment mama; 4everontheRight; 77Jimmy; A Strict Constructionist; ...
South Carolinians couldn’t care less about New Hampshire or Iowa.

Amen!

South Carolina
Ping

Send FReepmail to join or leave this list.

47 posted on 01/11/2012 9:00:32 PM PST by upchuck (Let's have the Revolution NOW before we get dumbed down to the point that we can't.)
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To: altura

It’s too early to get a handle on South Carolina.
By this time next week, Perry’s numbers should be far better.
Campaigning has just begun.

Huckabee Forum on the 14th at 8pm ET on Fox
South Carolina Republican Party debate at 9 pmET on the 16th


48 posted on 01/11/2012 9:00:45 PM PST by baysider
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To: VinL

No fear, but a whole lot of amusement. LOL,


49 posted on 01/11/2012 9:01:19 PM PST by org.whodat (What is the difference in Newt's, Perry's and Willard's positions on Amnesty.)
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To: WFTR
Given what's left, I'm not surprised that South Carolina evangelicals are putting aside anti-Mormon bias and looking again at Mitt Romney.

Lol. Supporting Romney isn't terribly pragmatic considering he'll lose in a cataclysmic landslide to Obama.

If I believed Romney was a sure-winner against Obama, I'd pragmatically warm up to the idea of him as nominee, in spite of the fact that he's a human weathervane with labile convictions. But this guy just doesn't stand a chance.
50 posted on 01/11/2012 9:02:21 PM PST by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State | Gingrich 2012)
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To: WFTR

Wake up!

The liberal Willard is not an option at all to WIN SC, the Decider State since 1980..

Willard the Lib’s 23% versus the three conservatives combined 40% tells you that.


51 posted on 01/11/2012 9:02:43 PM PST by CainConservative (Newt/Santorum 2012 with Cain, Huck, Petraeus, Parker, Watts, Duncan, & Bachmann in Newt's Cabinet)
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To: WFTR

Only Establishment hacks will vote for Romney.

Southerners will vote for Gingrich, he ll win a close one in South Carolina and route Mittens in Florida.

Haley should expect a huge challenge in 14 as well.

The real elections begin now, not those circus affairs in Iowa and NH.

Go Gingrich.


52 posted on 01/11/2012 9:04:33 PM PST by rbmillerjr (Conservative Economic and National Security Commentary: econus.blogspot.com)
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To: VinL

Within two days of the vote, if Santorum (And I support him) is still ten pts back of Newt and Romney, he needs to do the honorable thing, bow out and immediately endorse and go to work for Newt Gingrich.


53 posted on 01/11/2012 9:05:38 PM PST by Grunthor (I am a conservative, neither half of the one party represents my views.)
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To: VinL
Rick Perry has 5

Enough to make the difference - or put Santorum back up there with the top of the pack. Remember when some of the Perry supporters made the absurd charges that it was Cain who was trying to help Romney? It's actually Perry by staying in the race.

54 posted on 01/11/2012 9:06:22 PM PST by Republican Wildcat
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To: VinL
Rick Perry has 5

Enough to make the difference - or put Santorum back up there with the top of the pack. Remember when some of the Perry supporters made the absurd charges that it was Cain who was trying to help Romney? It's actually Perry by staying in the race.

55 posted on 01/11/2012 9:06:45 PM PST by Republican Wildcat
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To: Republican Wildcat

As this race in SC evolves, you will see Santorum fading even more from his current 14 and you will see Perry’s support drain off...all to Gingrich.

The people of SC know what is at stake and will adjust to too many conservatives...they know Newt down there.


56 posted on 01/11/2012 9:09:37 PM PST by rbmillerjr (Conservative Economic and National Security Commentary: econus.blogspot.com)
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To: Republican Wildcat

OH PLEASE... like mitts needs any help..


57 posted on 01/11/2012 9:10:43 PM PST by txhurl (Why didn't mitt steamroll over us in '08, when it would have done some good?)
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To: Utmost Certainty

Dittos.


58 posted on 01/11/2012 9:10:48 PM PST by beaversmom
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To: VinL
Okay, thanks for the correction. It did come from the original article. I don't know what went wrong.
59 posted on 01/11/2012 9:16:42 PM PST by danielmryan
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks VinL.
"This is not good news for Mitt Romney," said Towery, who chaired several of Gingrich's congressional campaigns before becoming a non-partisan pollster... the state's active Evangelical voting bloc is expected to set aside prejudice in favor of pragmatism.

60 posted on 01/11/2012 9:22:01 PM PST by SunkenCiv (Merry Christmas, Happy New Year! May 2013 be even Happier!)
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